Lots of the TOD staff are here in Denver for the ASPO-USA meeting. Consider this a Campfire open thread.

A few short years ago, in 2005 when I started contributing here, it seemed that people could generally be partitioned into 3 main groups regarding their views about Peak Oil. By far the smallest group were those calling for a near term (<2012) peak in global oil production. A larger, and definitively more vocal and deeper pocketed group (including IHS, CERA, most Wall St. firms and energy agencies) were in the "peak oil is not real" or "peak oil is post 2020 at a minimum" camps. But by far the largest % of the population were oblivious to these debates on oils peak, unaware of the possibility and/or importance of a potential peak and decline in our socioeconomic hemoglobin.

The past few days, delegates from 20 of the worlds largest economies met in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania to further develop international strategies to deal with the ongoing financial, energy and social crises. The "Leader's Statement" could reasonably be summarized by this excerpt:

"We further committed to additional steps to ensure strong, sustainable, and balanced growth, and to build a stronger international financial system."

Considering there was no mention of biophysical limits, nor of mankinds underlying consumptive drivers and considering that 'strong' is at cross purposes with 'sustainable' and 'balanced', I am left with the frustrating conclusion that our same old cargo cult beliefs - that growth and consumption will follow money/debt - are unfortunately alive and well. Below the fold is a brief overview and a chance for TOD readers to play G20 policymaker.

Fiat vs. Real - A Wile E. Coyote moment...

Many Oil Drum readers imagine what is ahead as a slide down the net energy curve, as the amount of oil and natural gas available gradually decline. Somehow, business as usual will continue, but at a lower level, as resources deplete. But what if a better model for what is ahead is overshoot and collapse?

There are no doubt different ways this could happen. My own concern is that systemic risk might affect the world's financial system, credit system, and international trade system. Globalization might rapidly wind down, and with it our ability to manufacture goods using materials from around the world. Our ability to maintain technology would drop quickly, as it becomes impossible to manufacture essential items such as computers, tires, batteries, and replacement parts for vehicles. The extraction and use of fossil fuels and uranium might also wind down quickly, eliminating most electricity and nearly all commercial food supplies. World population in this scenario might drop to perhaps 10% of its current level, in a matter of years.

If we knew such a scenario were going to happen in the new few years (or next 20 or 30 years), how would it change the way we think? The chance that any one of us would live through such an event would be fairly low. I am sure we could all think of negative impacts, but tonight we are going to try to look for the positive. Could this be in any way liberating, or positive? Below the fold, I will give you a few of my ideas.