1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

Neither. I feel fortunate to understand what may transpire (in vague terms), though like Cassandra, it doesn't give me pleasure to see the approaching decline and not be able to convince enough of my friends, family, and neighbors (e.g., I see a new ski-boat in a nearby driveway complex). Too many are convinced our destiny revolves around gleaming domed cities with flying cars, laughing (sometimes nervously) when they perceive the PO message as "THE END IS NEAR", instead of "the end of BAU is near". It is more pleasant to many to aspire to be George Jetson than it is Fred Flinstone.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

Temporarily. Then when the events begin to unfold, the uniformed will be tossed on a sea of pundit 'fixes', misdirected blame, and the unavoidable resource wars. People will be led around by the nose by charismatic extremists, and it's by no means a recent trend; see The Paranoid Style in American Politics by Richard Hofstadter.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

I believe so, though only if one takes action to mitigate the effects; easier said than done. The type and timing of actions one takes (or doesn't take) will make all the difference in one's eventual status.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Yes, though to be ultimately effective, it will take efforts on a community level at a minimum. And the more communities, the better.

I believe your earlier point ("met with a wide disparity of reactions") has two answers;

1. Alarm fatigue combined with a short attention span: With some many problems going on in the world and media hitting people from all sides, people literally are tired of jumping through hoops to respond to crises; the TV is a quick, attractive escape, even if those watching "Survivor" fail to recognize the irony of looking at one of their possible futures.

2. No sense of hope: We have to recreate visions of the future that will attract people, not simply repel them with dire warnings. This is a major theme with the Transition Town movement, which has created a primer (.pdf) to help people and communities get started. I believe this ray of hope helps get people past denial and on to eventual acceptance. Whether they then take action is yet something else.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

No it never occurs to me to wish I had never heard something that I have actually become aware of. It's a completely usless wish. Life is what it is.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

Perhaps not knowing one has terminal cancer is better than being told that everything will be allright but it doesn't work for me personally once the cat was out of the bag I think I would be very angry at those who withheld the knowledge.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

That's a tough one! Only in hindsight if we are in a position to look back will we be able evaluate and debate that. I don't think we know the details of what is coming so I'll be honest and say I have no idea.

4. Isn't adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Yes it is. When the ship is sinking one has to keep going until the ship has gone down. One has at least to try to prepare by putting on a life vest and increase the chance of being rescued if that is a possibility.

I was born in 1980 in Pakistan, an era of rapid growth while the old structure (big houses, skills like typing, libraries, neighbourhood meetings, weekly sea-side picnics, yearly hill-station vacations, strong and big furnitures, old strictly disciplined people etc) was still intact. So in my first few years of life, uptil 1988 I saw the best of both world. Then starting from 1988 till now I only saw decline, fall in everything of value. People now tend to break laws far more often than was once unthinkable, lieing is very common, neighbourhood meetings have vanished, people have become far far more lonely, most people don't really want to talk more than 5 minutes in face-to-face chat, old houses are broken down and place is used to make tiny flats, even quality of paper has fall, nobody now want to go to a library etc. Rapid economic growth has an important part to play in all of this decline. We were far far better off in a 1970 or even better 1960's world, world population was much less, technology was still crude from today's standard (petrol drinking cars, old computers, space tech in its infancy etc). In the best case the world should have stop tech development and population growth in 1930, even in 1960 much was not lost, in 1990 we had our last chance but now the entire system has corrupted a lot.

Therefore, knowing about peak oil was like seeing the end of tunnel for me. For the first time in life I started having some hope that these hard years of unnatural life and slavery of machines and loneliness would soon be gone. It may take 20 years to get the tech back to the 1960's level but we no doubt are moving in the right direction. Even now during these years of deep recession I see painful proudness and show-off in people getting vanished. Now nobody care what kind of car you keep or not keep a car at all, what kind of curtains you have on your walls, they are happy for you as long as you are having some income, it not matter how much income, it should be just enough to keep the ends meet. For the first time in life after 1990 I have seen people who are unemployed and therefore free now due to the recession giving time to neighbourhood projects, like cleaning the street, taking care of old and ill, talking about common problems. I even see organized protests against bad govt actions that are made directly by the people, not by political parties.

It so comforting to see that the rule of natural gravity in economic is acting in full now. Things are getting back to the normal levels. Prices are going down especially in property making it far more easy for an ordinary job doing person to make one house for his children in his life time. When I go to market I see shopkeepers giving value to customers, an year ago they were mostly ignorant of existence of low-buying customers like me. I see rich people getting poorer and middle class and poor mostly staying where they are, therefore equality is increasing which is a good thing.

Old friends who have gone abroad for jobs are coming back and its nice to see them again. Its more comforting to know that one's job/business do have value and infact more value than investments in bubbles. Its nice to know that hard work do really pay off and those who have made a fortune easy way (through stocks, property etc) have lost it mostly. 5 years ago I met a property advisor who told me he was once a computer engineer like me and even did a DBA course but then left the productive field of software development and took the easy job of property advisor. It was painful to see he making good money while sitting idle 90% of the time in his office. Now, he must come back to the productive job, to actually produce something. We know very well that the real economy around which all the other economy revolve is production, it can be of physical goods or of intangibles like teaching, medical, s/w making etc. The other economy including trade and advisory services and marketing etc is a derivative of the production. I have heard a lot of people in the latter fields making fun of the production people that they are fools wasting life in little salaries while they are making fortunes. The good thing is that those easy and new rich ones have invested their money in property and have lost half of it or one-third of it.

Finally, its nice to see the most bully and bloodshedding country of today usa falling and falling fast to the hard workers and savers and peaceful chinese. The very proud japanese are suffering too. Europe is also in bad shape. The proud people of middle east who make easy fortunes out of their natural wealth and make fun of hard workers of my part of world are also in trouble, especially Dubai. We have still lots to see, especially when usa get out of iraq, iran would almost certainly expand its borders into iraq, there can be an open or hidden war between iran and ksa making the cowardly saudi family to run for its life.

This whole business is incredibly, stupendously funny, sometimes I just have to laugh out loud. Most of my friends are Peak- Everything aware and we basically just howl with laughter. The rest of the world, particularly the obtuse, bourgeois, money- centric world is furiously digging its own grave ... and doing so with a singlemindedness that is ordinarily found only on Monty Python or in Mad Magazine. There are only a select few who can appreciate the spectacle.

Unfortunately, the ignorance period will not last too much longer. By the end of the year if not sooner, the implications of Peal Oil - and peak credit - will be unavoidably apparent to all. What happens next is conjecture, but the government may default or be ... 'constrained' in some way(s). How entertaining! It is a privilege to live is such momentous times.

I suspect when the entirety of the problem(s) reveal themselves the result will not be panic but resolve. Americans are not used to discipline, but most will actually rise to the challenge.

Being Peak Oil aware confers a tremendous advantage; most public intellectuals and economists are immersed in the fantasies and fads of the past twenty years or so. This means the social and economic structures that these now inhabit are likely to be altered unrecognizably as time passes. After the 'denouement' it will be difficult for individuals to navigate the very unfamiliar landscape. Becoming peak oil aware is a form of intelligence gathering ... it will always confer some advantage.

As for the future, I don't have the responsibility. Allow me the responsibility for the future and I will act. Otherwise I can only type. In the long(ish) run, I, like everyone else is dead ... that leaves nihilism and little else.

Well, I don't know. I've been peak oil aware for longer than you have Nate, thanks to Jay Hanson. I started prepping for collapse in early 2000 by withdrawing retirement funds from the stock market (having made a killing in the NASDAQ) and paying off my homestead. Had I been blissfully ignorant I would probably have lost most of that in the tech bubble crash. At this point I am pretty much prepared with a self-sufficient homestead but I am surrounded by neighbors who aren't prepared at all. So what good will it do me getting up every morning at 6:30 to go milk the cow while my neighbors sleep in? I'm not sure. There are many times when I think it would have been better to use the money for multiple trips to Italy or Belize for fun and games. I can't even imagine a peaceful transition to a sustainable society. My alcohol consumption has definitely gone up recently.

Those aminals are really comfortable with each other. They must of been raised together from kittens and puppies.

When I started talking about this stuff I got this nagging sensation that I was the mature grown-up and most everybody else was still a child. Our culture appears to have kept most people from entering adulthood, where serious, significant and, yes, sometimes frightening conversations are permitted to occur in a clear and rational manner. You can almost feel the tension arise as hairs bristle on those who just don't want to be disturbed.

It is unnerving because I know that many of these folks are actually in positions of power and influence--I am talking about the stack of professionals that run schools, hospitals, water treatment plants, work for politicians, etc. I don't trust that they have a sufficiently well-developed psyche to act from a semi-accurate view of reality when making decisions.

I feel that I have a tremendous advantage from "knowing" what I do. I have spent my time wisely as a result, not having been caught by surprise by any of the recent bouts of inflation, bubbles, stock plunges, etc. My wealth has become my family, my friends, my home, the relationships around me, and the skills being developed through time well-spent on practical matters AND enjoyed.

Think about how much more clear headed we will be (those of us without blinders on) as events unfold that we have anticipated. We have pre-processed our emotions and are more likely to retain frontal lobe dominance while the limbic systems of those around us are throbbing with blood flow.

1. Definitely happier to be ahead of the herd and also not very hard to do.

2. I suppose like any future sacrificial lamb it would be better to be ignorant but unfortunately this isn't the case.

3. The advantage just like being aware of knowing the future is that you can get your affairs in order and pile into the lifeboat all the necessities you need after the ship goes down.

4. For the past 5 years I have been maintaining the same stance on P.O. As you have said yourself Nate our children will not care if P.O happened in 2005 or2015. I sometimes feel that we are living the lord of the flies scenario. Even though I have worked hard to learn all I can to help in a post P.O scenario the I told you so aspect will end up being my demise. Telling Joe six pack that he can't just sit on the couch and wait to be fed is not what he wants to hear. " Who will help me plant this wheat? Not I said the goose. Not I said the...." So the answer is YES. We have no other choice but to build our bread and share it. Just an aside I believe buckwheat may be the key to our survival.

Three years ago I married an Albanian woman who has an interesting response to peak oil and related die off situations. "Oh, it will be like when I grew up." Her extended family is equally unshaken by any spiral into chaos I could describe. They listen and absorb but don't worry or dwell on it. They grew up in a poor, third world farming community. Their days were spent working the soil without much fossil fuels. They walked many miles each day. They raised livestock, dug their wells by hand lived in stone houses with dirt floors. They also had a very strong community, they had wonderful weekly parties and were very happy. When democracy took hold and the borders opened in the mid 1990's they came to America because life is easier here, but if chaos here, through peak oil or whatever, plunged them back into that world, they would simply adapt. The most instructive comment dismissing my concerns is, "We would all be in the same boat"
I find it comforting, of course I am still trying to eliminate my debt and learning to raise chickens, but having them around gives me a foundation of comfort that most of my fellow first world peak oils don't seem to have. We are either really worried or have our heads buried in the sand. It seems there is a third option; calmly realistic. Try to cultivate this, and/or get to know some third world immigrants. They are very useful people.

I've understood the consequences of Peak oil for better than 5 years now. I admit, at first it troubled me greatly and my immediate reaction was to try to plan my life to escape it.

My attitude changed about 2 months after I read the Long Emergency. I started thinking how everyone worried about Peak Oil had things written in stone. It was going to be the end, life was over as we know it, the end was near. All I saw was gloom and doom. There was no way that alternative energy could replace fossil fuels.

All the doomsayers seemed to miss the most important point about society. The will of the human race to change things. As a planet & as countries, we've overcome a great deal in the 20th century. Nazi Germany, segregation, the Berlin Wall, the fall of communism, the end of simple diseases that killed millions...etc.

15 years ago I wired myself up to the internet. At the time a mere 7 million people were wired, mostly science and educational types. I remember folks saying how computers were going to end employment for the masses. Computers and robots would replace people...but exactly the opposite happened. I remember thinking wow..imagine what we'll do with this internet thing someday and I remember the comment from CBS that the Internet was "The CB Radio of the 90's". Today, 1 billion people are wired and many of our industries and our lives are changed because of it. Because a few people had the foresight & the vision to think "wow, we can do this"

And that's where we'll go with renewable energy. I don't see Peak Oil as the end of the world, but as a new beginning. Wind power lights up my home and it runs the geo thermal system that heats my condo. Someday in the near future it will charge my electric car.

Oil and gas have divided the planet. It has caused the death of millions because of political strife, war, terrorism, etc. Green energy will do the opposite. We all have sun & we all have wind..and every country in the world can become self sufficient with energy. The path there will be rocky. Some industries will decline and some folks will fear the future..just as they feared the computers would take over their jobs. But when all is said and done, I see the future as a bright place..on a green planet. A place where more emphasis is put on "local" and community exists. Just like the internet has created communities.

Peak Oil..may be the best thing to happen to mankind, not the worst.

I have never experienced the negative emotional reactions common to most people regarding Peak Oil.

Since the 1970s, perhaps 1960s vaguely, I was aware that resource depletion would be an issue and oil would almost certainly lead the way (back then I saw that the hard work was finding oil, pumping was easy (primitive EROEI) unlike coal, copper, etc. and big oil fields are easier to find than small ones, so they would generally be found first).

So I waited and thought about it sporadically from different angles for decades.

I joined TOD and became more active post-Katrina. Peak Oil was my escape from TEOTWAIKI, and the massive human suffering around me. I had a sharper edge then as I escaped reality through my keyboard. I could justify the escape because I believed that I brought something new and useful to the debate and what little preparation will be done.

Like Climate Change & Global Warming, I want my efforts to make things slightly better than they would otherwise be post-Peak Oil. My focus is on the delta I could make, not the rough ride ahead.

I have seen mortality skyrocket, a massive mental health crisis and a community terribly disrupted. I will likely see it again.

Best Hopes for doing the best that we can, regardless of what lies ahead,

Alan

1. I never wish I had never heard of peak oil, but I am uncomfortable being in front of the herd, in case I trip.

2. I am trying to find a benefit to knowing, but haven't so far. I would rather know than not know.

3. I look at things differently now and consider the longevity of things more so I would say yes.

4. Absolutely. I don't fertilize the lawn anymore because it pollutes the rivers\lakes and it uses
fertilizer made from some source of energy. My greyhound provides all the fertilizer now. (She also
gets a few other lawns.)

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

Neither, it does affect some of my decisions but I don’t really worry about it per se. I figure some people will use it to better their lot in life and some will suffer mightily- same as with any asymmetrical information. While knowing does give one an edge it by no means determines to which group they will belong, there are too many other factors in play.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

Depends on the person, if one is given to worry or obsessing then they would probably be better off not knowing. Stress-induced tunnel vision is just as if not more dangerous than the problems that trigger it. I reckon peak oil is like AIDS in that no one will die from it directly; the carnage will come from other things caused by peak oil and while some are easily foreseeable, most are not. Personally it hasn’t bothered me a bit, though I suspect that will change at crunch time regardless of how I fair.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

That is impossible to tell with any degree of certitude due to all the other factors involved. How well it works out for me or anyone else making decisions based on Peak Oil for that matter are dependant on many variables.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Waste not, want not- I reckon.

(1) It's useful information. Since without energy-intensive medical products of industrial civilization I'm dead in rather short order, I know that I need not plan for retirement. My "consumption curve" has become very heavily biased toward the present where I'd otherwise have a vast propensity to save, since economic disruptions and resource supply disruptions lethal to me are very likely.

(2) Not that I can tell.

(3) For me, I basically get more out of life since I'd otherwise be saving futilely for a future I'm not going to live to see. You can't take it with you.

(4) I'm not sure. I'm not going to be part of that future, so I'm not concerned about it except in the abstract.

(**) No, I've had to stop alcohol consumption altogether because for some reason it started making me too ill too fast to have any pleasant effects.

1. I'm glad I heard about peak oil. To survive it you have to do things in a low energy way and to do things in a low energy way you have to plan years ahead, eg growing perennial crops instead of annuals, earthworms tilling the soil instead of spade, etc.

2. None, in fact its a big disadvantage. One quality I have got is unstructured problem solving, one quality I lack is leadership. With no leadership,10 people, steak for nine and I tell them you can eat earthworms, they will have the steak and leave me with the earthworms. Peak Oil has made me face up to this personal limitation and I'm doing this one alone for the sake of myself and my family.

3. Big advantage. I have bought apple trees, etc. These will take time to mature. It's too late for this when TSHTF.

4. Yes. I believe preparations should be done at every level. Home composting, organic gardens. Local Government: food bearing street trees, growing clover instead of grass.

Bonus Question. Never was much of a drinker, now I drink less. I'm keeping myself fit, I'm going to face this in as best condition as possible.

I have become Peak Oil aware over the past three years by following this site. As a 73 year man I find that I am saddened by the prospect not for myself, but for the young of today. We the elders will die off, any knowledge that we could pass down will die with us. The younger people that I have discussed this with mainly agree that Peak Oil is a fact. However, being good Americans they are convinced almost to a religious certainty that nothing bad can ever happen to this country. The rest of the world will suffer, but the U.S. will continue with BAU. Talking with my contemporaries is hopeless. Ignorance and apathy abound. So I am sitting on the sidelines watching for the show to begin and hoping that I never see it.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

No, I'm glad I have one more piece of the puzzle and I'm not too concerned about my position in the rest of the herd. If Peak Oil goes mainstream, however, that will cause problems for me since I'm a nonconformist. Being Peak Oil aware has allowed me to appreciate the day to day more.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

Definitely for some(even though it contradicts my previous answer). If knowing instills panic or severe depression for the individual, then it's not worth it. Enjoy every day.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

There's a probability that it will but it is bounded by 0 and 1.0. I still think the Peak Oil ignoramus could become a significant force once the cat is out of the bag since reaction based on emotion is powerful.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

It's an example of taking personal responsibility for the present as well as the future.

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

YES YES YES YES ....

1. i never wish i didn't learn about PO, i'm not built that way.

2.defense mechanisms have their place.
Though not necessarily a defense mechanism, but for example distracting one's self from frequent focus on dieoff type scenarios seems health to me. the anxiety of today's 'life' seems to argue for a collective unconscious that 'knows'; so no ignorance is not bliss.
& if u know most of someone's story this is i believe usually apparent.

3.is being alive an advantage? survival is an incredible instinct, & being prepared could be the difference.

4. this doesn't seem to be a question to me; more of a statement. nice leading nate if i'm correct. i agree wholeheartedly. having adult kids & grandkids makes this absolutely manditory, or i would not worth my 'salt'[salary], much less be a decent father if i didn't address this crisis. BTW i don't assume my efforts will 'work' but they are what i have to do.

++bogus question[for serious alcohol users]

-yes re alcohol at times; now don't keep it readily available, nor stock it due to family/friends that are serious users, & will be in shock & depression as PO gets rolling along. [& i also don't think it will be safe to barter with near home due to addictive, & potientially violent behaviors]

-severe,thqnkfully temporary physical/stress disorder for me soon after learning of PO.

-seem to have 'lost/misplaced my 'faith'[too much hanging around here perhaps].

Our civilization is hostage of oil industry which tasted $147/bbl and wants nothing more. We will have resource depletion anyway. Industry does not interest in progress in discoveries.
www.binaryseismoem.weebly.com
A. Berg, Ph.D

"Limits to growth" did it for me back in the 70's, resource depletion just seemed so obvious after that. Peak oil is just one part of that gestalt. Debate timing all you want, the outcome is clear.

The outcome for me, was an attempt to live my life with a minimal impact. Looking back over almost 40 years I've done pretty well at that. After quite a few years here I've learned I seem to bend very well and not break, so I really have no worries about the future. Fear is such a waste of time. I much prefer to chuckle a lot.

As to gaining an advantage from knowing, I guess I'd much rather be happy than right. Advantage implies winners and losers and I'm not a game playing person.

Don in Maine

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

I read "The Limits to Growth" in the 1970's and never understood at the time why this book was considered "discredited." I was puzzled and disturbed at the stupidity of American materialism, even though it's my own culture, and this continued for decades. My Dad told me about Hubbert in the late 1970's, but I never seriously studied the subject until after 2000. Now that peak oil has lots of adherents, I feel that my unease with American materialism was justified and even as I am uneasy about my "retirement years" materially speaking, I feel a certain sense of justification. I think there are a number of boomers who feel the same way, those who thought that "Earth Day" meant something and couldn't understand Reagan, TV, and everything else that rejected this implicit environmentalist message.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

Let's wave the magic wand, and presto! There are unlimited oil supplies after all, if you drill deeply enough. Now, do you feel better?

No. It's just the next problem, peak coal, or soil erosion, or water problems, or overpopulation. The basic attitude of our growth society is the problem, and plentiful oil would only delay the inevitable collision with reality.

Even if we were to produce additional magic wands, and solutions to all of our resource problems appeared, would you really want to be part of this culture?

Well, some people would, obviously, and even I would at least be able to contemplate retirement without undo "excitement." There are many (including myself), though, who would feel uneasy at U. S. materialism no matter how much oil we had. For them, and for me, ignorance of peak oil is despair.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

This is hard to say, but it may have a distinct advantage. My guess is that the peak oil people will "win" the debate before the lights go out, and everyone who was peak oil aware will be able to say "I told you so." Plus, we'll have a heads up on all the latest gardening and permaculture tips while everyone else is staggering around saying "what happened?"

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Yes, this is a positive way both to prepare yourself and to serve as an example to others.

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

No.

I know this is a slightly facetious question, but at the risk of being overly literal, I would urge people not to do this. One writer, I think it was Victoria Moran, said that doing drugs or alcohol is a spiritual response to a difficult problem, but it's essentially knocking at the wrong door. Those who have discovered peak oil are in most cases those who are stronger intellectually and emotionally. Anyone who's read TOD can see that the numbers of those who can clearly see reality are growing daily. Maybe 10 years ago, those who were peak oil aware had an excuse to drink, but I would say that this reason is decreasing daily.

In the mid 1970s after a decade of trying to figure out just what was so terribly wrong with my nation, my culture, my world, in a sudden flash of insight I realized it all came down to energy. Energy is power whether political or electrical and we were squandering too much on too little. I became a rather strident advocate for wind, wood, water, solar, etc. I was absolutely convinced that if we started then we could have fixed things. Macro systems approach. What massive, confusing disillusionment. Nobody was interested. Why couldn't people see the logic? I was young and really didn't understand people at all. With the onset of Reagan I pretty much gave up. Suck your damned oil, I thought, and tended my garden. My garden has grown fairly well since then and my point of view more subtle. It's too late to really "fix" things but all is not necessarily lost. I am, perhaps, more optimistic than I used to be. Looking forward with interest to see what happens.

To answer your questions, Nate:

1} Peak oil happiness. I've been "ahead of the herd" for a long time and it doesn't make me especially happy when I consider the difficulties humanity as a whole faces. In my personal life happiness doesn't depend on oil.

2} Is there benefit to being unaware/aware? No. People are perfectly able to live unhappy lives no matter what their awareness quotient might be.

3} Awareness advantage? I suppose so. There is a great deal of comfort knowing you are making your own power, growing your own food. On the other hand if you are just sitting in a city somewhere tapping on a keyboard, quaking in your socks knowing doom is on the doorstep you ain't going to be very happy.

4} Adaptation and mitigation? Yeah, sure, no brainer but... I've tried to do that for a long time but still I feel guilty I haven't done enough, that I'm very much part of a culture that screwed up. My son said to me a few years ago, "You're really leaving us a messed up world, dad," and I feel guilty.

*My drinking is about the same as it has been but I have pretty much stopped smoking pot. (No connection to peak oil that I can think of.)

Like Alan, it seems as if I've always known about peak oil. When I first heard Richard Heinberg speak, my reaction was:

Oh good, now there will be more people who know about it, more people I can talk to.

I don't think I knew the technical reasons behind peak oil, as Alan did. Instead I had been exposed to ecological thinking in the 70s, Limits to Growth and all that, so peak oil seemed like a confirmation of something I already knew.

Personally, the questions that Nate poses don't make much sense to me. I went through a bad time in 1970-73 and nothing has seemed so bad since. I'm lucky to have survived that period, and count anything since then as grace and good fortune. Instead I ask myself: what can I do in the time I have left?

I can't really relate to the concern that so many people have about food, goods, etc. when peak oil hits. Partly because I've lived poor for a good part of my life, and I know that people can survive and be happy on much less. Also, I know that people will be a lot more resourceful when they have to be.

I guess I feel like the Albanian family that EastWest describes.

Bart
Energy Bulletin

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have
heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?
I am very grateful for the knowledge that TOD has given me. I am saddened by the lack of mitigation at all levels but am personally happy that I can lead some others to prepare for the inevitable transition to a new way of life.
2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?
From my perspective there is no benefit to being ignorant.
3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?
Absolutely. In my case, my wife and I, my children, and grandchildren moved to a rural area (an isolated river valley) and began to earn acceptance by volunteer service in Church, Grange, Fire Dept., and Lions Club.
We are striving to become more self-reliant and making good progress.
By writing, speaking (groups and local talk radio) and conversation, I have been somewhat successful in alerting the Valley residents to the possible impacts of Peak Oil.
4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?
I spent thirty years supporting the development and manufacture of nuclear warhead delivery systems. I never had the attitude that I wanted to be at ground zero in case of a nuclear attach. Rather I conducted seminars to teach people how to protect themselves from the effects of such an event and assured that my FAMILY always had a workable game plan.
I am approaching Peak Oil in the same way.
**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?
No alcohol but coffee intake has increased because of the length of the Drum Beat at 6:00 am PDT.

I'll answer what I take to be the gist of the questions.

We live in perhaps one of the most interesting possible times in history, a turning point if ever there was one. Curiosity alone would compel me to pay rapt attention.

I hate flying, and avoid it as much as possible. But once I'm on board I write myself off -- already dead. Given that, I very much want to sit by the window, watch the engines drop off or whatever, or observe the industrial monoculture underneath and ponder its implications.

I'm a year and a half from 70, much closer to the end than the beginning. But I have children and grandchildren and beyond that feel some kind of affinity for the species. I've always been a science buff, math, physics, computing, anthroplogy, big picture history and so on. All fascinating, but none have been as interesting or as relevant as: what next for the species as the industrial era winds down?

People read science fiction, go see wide screen thrillers and action movies. None of it remotely compares to what is unfolding around us, day by day, week by week.

And yet I do understand people's fondness of everyday living, spending time with friends and family, not wanting the anxiety of actually being a participant in one of those wide screen action thrillers. But that's what it is -- and there's no way to get off the screen back into the audience.

I don't feel guilty about warning people about what's coming, although I back off when they don't want to hear it because I value friendship. Reality is arriving, and I think immunization can help relieve some of the shock. Maybe it's some small contribution to getting rational thought in motion a little sooner than it might otherwise be. I've gotten some credibility among friends and family by warning them away from buying houses before the crash.

My coffee consumption may have increased, my alcohol is zero because it disgrees with me, not me with it.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

As an outdoorsman I have been appalled by the waste streaming behind humans, myself included, since I lost my "wonders of the pristine natural world virginity" when I was 18 or 19 years old. A hunter had killed a deer out of season, beheaded it for the trophy and left the ungutted carcass to feed the scavengers. On one hand I see peak oil as an opportunity for a transition, albeit a rocky one, to a time when to waste will be considered stupid and to have enough will be sufficient. On the other hand I see coal mining and coal liquefaction increasing , land use for biofuels increasing, drilling in national parks permitted, eminent domain invoked to drill wherever fuel can be found, and a great deal more human and ecological tragedy as the result of the inability to supply the world with sufficient fuel. The man still wants his trophies. The latter thoughts I could stand to lose sometimes.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

No. Even in the worst case scenarios it will be a "long emergency" and being aware will likely reduce panic and increase creative responses in many places as millions of people begin to have their peak moments.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

Not by itself. If I take no action, then I'm no better off than the PO ignorant. There are at least two kinds of action that may or may not be advantageous: Social change activism and Head-for-the-hills-ism. Personally I'm going the activism route and a few people are listening. And I feel better about it. I think there's time to make a difference. If not, well, I know some very nice places in the hills. Some have been occupied off and on for about 10,000 years.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

This made me think of this old poster:

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

Actually, now I don't drink at all but there's no connection to peak oil. I was falling down too much and it hurts when you sober up ;-).

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

Of course not. It is one more set of facts and perspectives that constitute the world of knowledge. I don't particularly see knowledge of PO as having any particular benefit to my specific life or my future (perhaps all the major consequences may occur, not will occur, only after I'm long gone).

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

No. I'm with Socrates in this: the only evil is ignorance. If you have made a commitment to a life based mostly on evidence-based reasoning, then the more you know, the better.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

Well, it may be advantageous for those who like oneupmanship. In general, however, some PO people seem to be rather myopic and fixed in their assumptions and cannot imagine that there could be a solution other than death and destruction, or no cars, poor agriculture, and a whole host of allegedly insurmountable problems.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

I don't think mitigation can work; you cannot go back or reverse the climate system, at least not as easily as turning on or turning off the CO2 spigot, as some imagine. Adaptation would be the more reasonable approach. However, my commitment to walk when I can, use public transit, avoid cars, and live simply and closer to nature has little to do with PO and more to do with the fact that I don't like the products of oil, the pollution, and the noise--and time is more important to me than money. The best I could do is set an example to one or two other people, talk about the situation so as to support alternative energy systems (my county is already using wind and is preparing for wave energy in a couple years, but the people control the utility company where I live, so it's easier than, say, NYC).

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

Not at all; I drink only a little red wine on a daily basis.

What it HAS done, however, is to make me spend more time wondering about the widespread existence of a certain bizarre apocalytic attitude--AKA doomerism--in the land: Is this an illness? It certainly is highly neurotic, though I am not qualified to make any assessment about it clinically. Does it have any value? Yes, logically doomerism is one of the standard alternatives in any analysis of future outcomes of anything; all businesses, for example, have disaster plans, worst case scenarios. Is it subject to rational counter-argument? No more so than is apocalyptic Christianity; and they both share this psychological attitude of doom: Like Jonathan Edwards' Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God whose fate was death and damnation, so the doomers proclaim Sinners in the hands of Ecological Disaster whose fate will be collapse, destruction, extinction (take your pick, depending on how much hyperbole someone feels on any one day).

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

Happy.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

I like to know what's going on and consider being uninformed synonymous with reckless endangerment.

Q: If one has a slight headache does one take 30 mg of morphine?
A: Only if you like morphine, otherwise paracetamol will do the job fine.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

Being able to adapt to changing circumstances through due planning has already produced positive benifits for my family. "Adavantage" sorta connotates competition to me so I choose not to think of it in those terms.

We have a small on site food source, advantage in the short term may become a disatvantage if I need to defend it from marauding packs of starving humans (ghouls).

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Yes, a summary of my above comments.

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

Gone down a little actually, due only to constraints with the maturing physiology.

A pint can't hold a quart Mr Fizer, if it's holding a pint it's doing the best it can. (Disney - Black Hole)

My wife just played me a presentation from spiral dynamics here.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3637777359401476371

A bit light and new age-ish but definitely relevent to where we are going as a species.

Think of it like "evolotion in individual and societal consciousness" as adaptive response to extreme living constraints.

Animals - love them myself.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

No way, Jose. My choices in life would have been very different and, frankly, disastrous had I remained PO unaware. As a father of a young child, the responsibility to try to build something that can give him a foundation for his life is huge. That would not be possible were I PO unaware.

Now, were I still single and childless, I might well wish to have remained ignorant. Being in my 40's and realizing a retirement to be almost certainly a fantasy, why not just go with the flow? In fact, I'm glad I married before I learned about PO or I almost certainly would not have married at all.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

Ignorance is bliss only for those who cannot get past their fears and/or are sociopaths and don't care either way. Of course, being able to anticipate and prepare will have advantages on average, though perhaps not for given individuals.

Also, it's exciting to be part of (at least in my own little head) shaping the future. While it's apparently meant as a curse, let me live in interesting times. Please!

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

See above for the short answer. This will depend on far too many variables to answer directly. Is disaster homesteading a good idea? Yes. We need small farms as a way to 1. build resilience, 2. employ otherwise idle (Devil's playground and all that) hands, 3. reconnect people to nature, 4. build small communities that are individually highly self-sufficient, but collectively cooperative when necessary. Etc.

BUT, if the government decides to tax the crap out of the slightest leaf of lettuce? Or roving bands come calling? Or there's a natural disaster and you are too isolated, etc?

There are no sure things, but we can be sure that if we fail in managing GHGs, building resilience, localizing, powering down, etc., we are in even greater danger.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Of course.

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

Reduced. Percentage-wise, by a lot. But, that coincided with marriage and a new baby, so the role of PO might not be causative. I suppose one could make a sound argument that the remaining consumption is due to PO/ACC-induced stress.

;)

Cheers

On July 1, 1956 I moved to Montreal Canada for training at McGill and the Royal Victoria Hospital. I soon met the McGill biology professor N.J. Berrill and his family through a mutual friend. I had previously been interested in the impressive post WWII population growth. Dr Berrill planted a more specific interest in population and resources, including oil and phosphorus.
#1. This developed into an interesting off and on hobby which included writing for scientific and business publications and occasionally speaking to diverse groups. I became active in the original ZPG (later Population Connection), Planned Parenthood and Population Reference Bureau. Much later during the 90's I became involved with L. F. Buz Ivanhoe as a volunteer internet liaison and subsequently encountered Jay Hanson on the Usenet.. Google Jay Hanson + John McCarthy or MCLynch if interested. On balance this hobby has been a plus though on occasion I did have to be careful not to offend certain religious friends and business associates.
#2. Is ignorance bliss? Probably for some. I tend not to discuss this issue with most casual friends and acquaintances.
#3.On balance being aware has had advantages - a vasectomy and living within my means come to mind.
#4 Adaptation and mitigation?? Fantasy solutions such as revolutions and new political parties are unrealistic. Humans are far too diverse to effectively and permanently control.
#5 Bonus. I consumed more alcohol in the distant past but this was surely due to factors other than peak oil.

Anyone who does not use this knowledge to the advantage of self and family is thick. Knowing about Peak Oil leads to many direct actions, some of which are:

• Investing in precious metals (physical, not "paper" metals)
• Buying/collecting a library on topics like gardening and many other survival skills
• Buying tools of all kinds, even scythes
• Learning skills that will help you in a post peak world (too many to list)
• Buying bicycles and all the tools and spares that go with them
• Buying a few acres (minimum) of arable land
• Buying a solar passive home (if possible)
• Investing in solar panels
• Starting to grow food
• Limiting the number of children you produce (my count: 1)

I was irritated when I realised that my approaching retirement was about to be fucked up by peak oil, but now I cannot wait for the post peak world to arrive, because I am sick to death of all the noise and pollution generated by fossil fuel burning, and all the aimless rushing about it encourages. Mankind is "frantic with corporeality" to borrow a phrase from Samuel Beckett, and it's time we took a calmative.

In lieu of responding to this post I'll bring up something that bothers me somewhat: I was under the impression that this subforum would be primarily about actual preparation, the tangible, things we can do to be ready that aren't covered in the available literature, ala peakoil.com's Planning For The Future or LATOC's various subforums such as Doomer Food Production: Prepare to Garden! Instead there are plenty of discussion topics like this, putting me in mind of venerable folk forum Mudcat's term for off-topic yack: BS. No harm in shooting the bull of course ;) and I see that this is built into the guidelines for TOD:C anyway:

Optimally, about 1/2 the posts will be about 'practical skills' that can be individually or locally implemented. The other 1/2 will be about big ideas, that by definition will be unproven and even unfeasible, but can be passed around the campfire for review and discussion. So a spectrum from pickle production to a what a world without currency would look like are all fair topics.

Perhaps open threads built around a discrete topic could be thrown out occasionally - lighting, bicycles, pickles. No editor input necessary. You'd have quite a corpus of invaluable advice built up pretty soon, not that that isn't happening here, at half speed anyway.

Even better would be a wiki with contributions from all of the above mentioned sites, and more, seeing's how TOD doesn't have a complete lockdown on knowledge. Have as a goal something tangible that can be printed out in the end, perhaps a form of collaborative non-fiction. If you're seriously considering a future with shaky grids and empty shelves what you want in your hands would be expert advice on paper for installing DIY insulation, not dim memories of some plan that dieoff guy had for a civilization of slackers. As has been observed here before, start sharing Jay's insights with your fellow cold and hungry and you're likely to just get the beejezus thrashed out of you.

Hope this will be of interest to some.

Firstly thanks to the Contributors at the Oil Drum. It is without doubt better to be prepared.

Sometimes Nate (and the rest of the contributors) you must wonder if you are having an effect?
Is anybody paying attention?
Am I making a difference?

Well Yes.. the difference it has made to me and my family, in my own little example.

I have made these changes, mostly because of the challenge of Peak Oil. So what did I do?

I live in a small town 20 kilometres from a regional city.

And My alcohol intake is less! :-)

A big thank you to you all.
My family is much better prepared.

I was however, surprised by the collapse of the Oil Price.

Our political Leaders are not prepared to grasp reality.
ie it is growth itself that is unsustainable.
Exponential growth is considered to be the Normal state of affairs, when in reality it was just a century long bull run.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

This is like asking someone today if they were living in Berlin in 1938 what would they have done. You know something big is about to happen. You just know whatever the outcome, it is not going to be pleasant - but about survival.

Sidenote Nate: I am sorry but the SAS (and many other military organizations) train you to eat pets. I have many pets and love animals. As a farmer I also have many working/food animals, so I don't have the revulsion city dwellers have about where their food comes from. From my reading an interesting fact is that before the 20th Century turtles were used on boats by sailors because of their longevity without water or food.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

Ignorance is undervalued. Die more surprised - at least you have an interesting life twist to look forward to.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

No. In survival situations the cause of the survival situation is immaterial. Survival skills are the only thing which are important.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

No. Personal responsibility is immaterial in situations where society doesn't respect that responsibility. Individual survival skills are the only thing which are important.

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

Yes. Copious quantities. Wake me up ten years after peak oil has arrived. If I wake up before then, immediately hand me beer(s).

"Though this isn't my choice, it IS a natural reaction." This, to me, is somewhat central to the whole theme here, and as far as I can see, only Will Stewart has picked up on this, when mentioning denial.

I see denial in the same light as vomiting, a cytokine storm, or crying out in pain. They are all natural reactions. Some may semantically argue that "natural" is somewhat meaningless because everything is natural, but we can at least agree that these are biological or organic processes.

But the significant part of this is hidden in plain sight. Reaction. Denial is a reaction.

Denial is, on one side, a reaction driven by many complex desires, fears, political leanings, understandings and education, religious beliefs, personality, experience, social conditioning, and available contemplative space in the brain.

On the other side, denial is a reaction to the complex individual and specific details, the presentation of information, context, tonality, interactivity, relevance, trust, logic, emotional appeal, authority, and social validation.

Or, to break it down to something more basic, denial is a reaction the other person has to something you do. The point of putting it this way, is that denial is not something that just happens, it's a re-action to your actions.

And if you want a different reaction from the other person or group, anything ranging from critical debate to compliance, or at the very least something other than denial, YOU have to do something different.

I think this is what is meant by, "change comes from within", and, "doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results is the definition of insanity".

1. Being aware and trying to do something about the collapse is like trying to prove Fermat's Last Theorem. I don't think I can do it, but everything I've attempted so far has eventually produced interesting and relevant understandings. I guess I'm a little on the positive side of ambivalent.

2. Yes, ignorance is bliss. And so what? Ignorance doesn't last forever, and it's not the only path to bliss. Friendship, drugs, companionship, orgasms, laughter, community, chocolate cake, runner's high, there are myriad ways of getting bliss. And besides, bliss is over-rated.

3. Yes, if you decide to make it one.

4. It's the previous outcomes which define our current level of responsibility, adaptation, and mitigation, and the ongoing outcomes which define the succeeding levels. I don't think the future is ours to take responsibility of, or that it's even possible because it's too large and the wrong scale. What's more is that, if civilized human history is any guide, through no fault of their own, most people aren't capable of taking responsibility, period. I say through no fault of the individual, because without some amount of luck the social system is too complex to be understood or navigated.

I think what this means is that for any of the people here who want to see any change, you, personally, you are going to have to assume some kind of leadership role. In your personal life, in your community, in your local environment, you. You were lucky enough to be exposed to this information, lucky to be able to understand it, lucky to have the time, lucky to be receptive, lucky to have the resources, lucky to be emotionally aware. So above most other people, you are lucky enough to have the option of choosing to be responsible. Otherwise, it ain't gonna happen.

"We are the one's we've been waiting for." -- Hopi prophecy

Bonus. No alcohol, less tobacco, more cannabis, more exercise, less weight, less sleep, more computer games.

1. I always prefer the truth no matter what the subject, because when I'm fooled into a wrong belief it has always bitten me harder than knowing the truth.

2. Ignorance is never bliss in my opinion, because why wouldn't a person want to know the truth?

3. I think the most important aspect of being Peak Oil aware is that the impending future will not come as a surprise. I noticed during the last run up in oil prices, people were so bewildered as to what was happening. Of course once the price of fuel at the pumps went back down most stopped being concerned at all.

My wife had become somewhat convinced by me of Peak Oil, but once pricing dropped, she said, "See!" She of course is quite smart, but also a devout cornupopian, who adamantly believes that some super technology breakthrough will save us. In any case she doesn't want to know about the subject in anymore detail, thanks so much.

4. I'm not even sure how much I can do for us in regard to mitigating the situation as it unfolds. I'm not even sure that's the difference between peak oilers and cornucopians. I think the difference is in survival techniques. As a peak oiler I want to know the danger that lies ahead, and cornucopians seem to require a fresh viewpoint of a beautiful future that lay ahead.

Its just some ingrained survival perspective difference. Some can face trouble in advance and some can only handle it as it occurs.

Beyond these 4 questions, I think its important to point out that most people have a sense of perpetualness to society by the substance of it. The tall buildings, the masses moving around, the electronic movement of stocks, commodities, bonds etc., trains, planes, tv, internet, etc. provide a tangible premise for cornucopians to place their mantle, saying in effect, look, its all working, right? So don't mess with it!

What they don't realize is all that stuff keeps moving at the pace it does only because oil has not reached too high a price. Once it does everything will begin to slow and at some juncture of unafordibility for the masses, it will stop.

But us peak oilers, or as Catton (Overshoot) describes us, 'ecological realists', will simply need to allow those that have the alternate survival perspective to hold onto their fanciful viewpoint, until the wheels of industry grind down and then they will then have to face the truth.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?
No never - reality is what we have to live with not some other thing. I'm glad I know so that now I can plan accordingly. Like you Nate, I spend pretty much all my spare time researching peak oil and related topics (and have done for the last 2 1/2 years) - energy, water, resources, population, ecology, economics and finance (how it works or doesn't) and the psycholgy of people's reactions to all this. I'm not happy to be ahead of the herd, in fact I try desperately to spread the word, but meet stubborn resistance and denial at every turn - it drives me nuts! The responses fall into 3 catagories:
a) We'll "techno" our way out of it
b) You're wrong/a "pessimist"
c) I don't want you to depress me by presenting me with these facts.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?
No benefit - people are going to get a hell of a shock and be left with few options to adapt without the knowledge they need to plan ahead and at a time when required materials are in high demand and low supply.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?
Yes of course. I'm actually rather enjoying preparing - even were nothing to come of all this, I've got a lot of new skills and a healthier more rewarding lifestyle. We are retro fitting our house to be carbon neutral and "off the grid". I'm collecting manual equipment to replace electrical and learning how to use it. A lot of things I'm buying are secondhand - made in an era when tools were made to last. I'm learning new skills (keeping chickens, baking bread, making cheese, pasta, and candles, spinning, weaving, sewing, quilting) and establishing a permaculture garden. It takes a lot of time and some money to do all this, to acquire skills, equipment and a store of food for a "rainy day". Psychologically, knowing in advance spares one the anguish of shock and fear at a sudden change of circumstances.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?
Of course - I find it very rewarding to take care of matters for myself and to plan and prepare so that I can continue to care for my children (although they are now grown up).

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?
No - cut back, along with taking care over my diet and abandoning driving my car except for a hand full of times per year in place of which I ride one of my 3 bikes or walk and use public transport. We need to be physically fit for all sorts of reasons, not least in order to avoid self inflicted health problems in an era when medical facilities may not be working the way they are now.

As I see it, lots of people here are betting on the wrong horses, which even if PO is imminent would be a waste of time and resources.

a) You do lots of mitigation activities which is like a spit in the ocean - meaningful action need to be collective, such as if you double the gasoline price by taxes.

b) You pick up farming and get some guns to defend your property. But you might very well get killed or evicted anyway, or conversely, you might just as well be able to adapt to farming later. Perhaps you'd avoid getting killed and adapt to farming easier if you have connections and resources that matter in the current civilisation, rather than going Amish today.

c) In all likelyhood, your attempts to get self sufficient is badly timed and wasted effort, as you do not know exactly what will be required and when, if at all necessary.

d) Some of you try to get out of debt. Why, if society is going to collapse? What does debt to a bank matter in a Mad Max world, if it comes to that?

e) You seem to worry a lot. Sure, it might give you a purpose in life and make you focus on relations more than "stuff", but on the other hand, the risk is that you neither do the best investments today, nor the fun stuff others do, such as vacations.

Of course, all of the above is not really due to you knowing about PO, but due to you not having neither the vision to see how society and energy production will adapt, nor smarts to take personal advantage of your knowledge in the best way.

I, for one, cannot see oil equivalents going higher than $100-$120 long term since there are substitutes in the form of oil sands, CTL, batteries, nuclear synthesized fuels and so on. Also, I don't think there will be a real supply problem for the industrialised world, b/c our wasteful ways gives us a lot of room for immediate improvements as well as for big investments. So, industrialised countries will have no real problem coping. How well the rest of the world will take $120 oil long term, I don't know, but I think it will be fairly ok for them too.

Denial is a normal defense mechanism when people face unpleasant reality.

Fascinating discussion!

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

No, I'm only too pleased to be Peak Oil aware. I burnt my bridges in a big way in an attempt to be ahead of the herd and made a choice of a huge lifestyle change.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

Ignorance probably is bliss. But that comes at an ultimate price. When TSHTF who will be in a better situation to survive - the Peak Oil/prepared people or the billions of sheeple on the planet? Of course I speak only of the supposedly developed nations. Those fortunate enough to be in countries that have relatively little dependency on fossil fuels for transport/fertilisers/plastics/etc. will probably be in a much better situation to survive. Life will simply continue as it has for centuries. Hard, harsh but continuing.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

Only time will tell. As I said on my blog if it all comes to nothing at least my children/grandchildren will have a holiday cottage in a remote, pleasant and peaceful (at the moment) part of the world. As far as I am concerned personally my huge lifestyle change can only be good.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

I think so myself. I'm a self-confessed "doomer" - doesn't make me any less happy as a day to day person, but I personally could not stand idly by and do nothing in the face of the possible impending catastrophy facing the developed nations.

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

I made a New Years resolution some years ago not to drink any more...

...I don't drink any less, either ;)

Hi Nate,

Sadly, history is replete with the fact that people continue on their chosen path no matter what others say.

The graph of "Intellect" distribution seems a steep one. By the definition, those who "Know" will act accordingly. All those down slope would never "know" no matter how many times they were told.

If the Olduvai Theory holds as a natural outcome of "Peak Oil" the only knowledge we need is how to cull the population to below a Billion. Any other knowledge or action is quite useless.

Peak Oil in general and TOD in particular, have become my skull on the desk. Allow me to explain:

It is said that in the days of the Renaissance many scholars and prosperous people made it a custom to keep a human skull on the desk where they worked and handled correspondence. You may have seen this in certain Renaissance paintings. This symbol was to act as a reminder of mortality, of limits, and to concentrate a persons priorities to the things that really mattered. Death is a certainty, peak oil or not, but the ideas of mineral and energy depletion can act as a reminder of limits not only in the mortality of the individual but to the possible mortality of whole cultures and whole ways of life. Thus, peak oil is my skull on the desk.

Yet I am still vexed by a moral conundrum. Why should I attempt to bear the weight of the world upon my shoulders? Even now, in the great age of calamity, I can find a thousand professions more profitable than attempting to assist the world out of it's energy woes.

What if I knew, not thought but KNEW the end of the modern age was at hand? Not only that it was at hand, but that the end of the only age I have known was ABSOLUTE in it's nearness and certainty, and that no action on my part could change that. Suppose that I knew, not supposed, but KNEW that the end of the modern age and the carbon age were at hand?

What would be my wisest course of action, knowing that the end of the only aesthetic, that of technology, of speed, of light and of a drama that only technology can bring was upon us?

Why would I be frugal with money that would soon be worthless? Why would I be miserly with a form of energy that would soon disappear from use on the earth? why would I concern myself with carbon release if I KNEW the carbon age was almost over anyway. The carbon issue would soon fix itself as the great technical age collapsed. Grass and weeds would soon grow over the devices that were vilified for their carbon release only a few years earlier.

Why would I waste the last opportunity to sit behind the wheel and feel the power and hear the technical opera of the fastest and the best that the mind of man had delivered, and thrill one last time in this short mortal life to the sounds and the motions and the power of the poetic names, Ferrari, Porsche, Ford GT40 and Corvette? Why would I conserve, why would I avoid travel, and miss the last chance to move fast on the surface of the Earth, and see the places and do the things that I would never have the chance to do again? Who would not have driven a chariot in the ancient days of Egypt if they had known that chariots were soon to become extinct? Who would not have rode one of the great riverboats on the Mississippi in the age of Twain, or flown in one of the great airships before the year of the Hindenburg, or took a trip on a flying boat if they had known that the age of these fantastic devices was near it's end?

In summation, why would I not use peak oil as the motive to revive an old philosophy, but this time with just cause? HEDONISTIC joy and consumption as a last salute to all that the artists of our technological age have accomplished is the only right path, we must take an oath to go out not with a whimper but with a bang! Is this not the only right path for those of us who have had so much, done so much, known so much? Is this not the only proper way to honor our ancesters who made of science an art?

Flippantly the poet may have toasted “Eat, Drink, and be Merry for tomorrow we all may die!”, but we will take it seriously and swear it as our sacred and correct course of action at the end of this great and beautiful age!

"Tonight I'm gonna' party like it's 1999" quote Prince...and so we shall for the rest of our lives if we are certain in our faith that we are at the end of an age!

RC

I have been peak oil aware since about 2001. My opinion is that those who are peak oil aware are not peak oil aware enough. Peak oil is far from the only problem. It's peak everything with global climate change and ecological degradation thrown in. But I think what people on the Oil Drum overlook most is the political effect. Washington has made a choice-- to try to take control of the remaining resources with force. That's sure to bring on the resource wars. But in addition to that, we have waited too long: there is no longer the ability to create a coherent plan. Suppose there were some coherent grand scheme to substitute renewables for oil. There is no chance that this society could commit itself to the task. There is too much corruption and mistrust and just plain panic. What peak oilers overlook is the political effect of peak oil. It has made concerted action impossible.
Some hope to create a market mechanism to solve this problem. When I hear something like this I imagine someone looking into a tiny window cut in the small end of a long coffin like box and trying to manipulate two long sticks to pick up a pin with work gloves tied to the ends of the sticks. Good luck bozo.

I think you are being very unfair to your dogs (and cats I suppose). At least they deal with reality, unlike homo sapiens with their well developed capacity for fantasy = cognitive dissonance and lemming like copying (look at someone with a water bottle or a cap turned backwards = mind bogglingly stupidity).

Our 'intelligence' did not evolve to understand the world, or be better hunters or be logical. It evolved for social intercourse .. at trait we share with chimps. Who continually plot and plan against each other (including hanky panky behind the scenes), who can plan and organise enough to do war. But are so dumb about their environment that they will ignore the tail of a predator hanging from a tree.

Like us, who (ref recent New Scientist) ignore whole swags of reality. We are so dumb as a species that we will not pick up the fact that the person we have been talking to a few secs ago has changed (ref cognitive science tests).

God we are dumb as a species. But we are the greatest cowardly killers in the animal world. You want a species that will plot and plan for decades to find a moment to slip the knife in ..we are your boys (don’t be to smug females .. repeated tests show they are the preferred mating partners .. think US 'jocks').

The traits of nearly everyone on this site is going to be extinct soon (or jailed or drugged). We are mutants, a tiny minority. With better genetic testing we are the last generation of our kind, or if we actually somehow survive we will be drugged .. or jailed.

Its over for our species, we ain't going to make it, because we are very, very dumb in totality and the ratio of smart mutants to 'norms' is too low.

Goodbye and thanks for all the fish .. and oil, minerals, metals, coals, edible species (even non edible species), trees, .. and so on. On the bright side in a hundred or so million years the Earth’s ecology will recover.

I should add, just to cheer things up, its too late.

Given any realistic timespans (and the resources available) there is absoultely no chance of developing alternative energy, transport, recycling, agricultural, et al, systems. None whatsoever. You can hope, but that is as unrealistic as hoping that the current ponzi financial system will continue (turn you cap backwards and drink a bottle fo water, it might help).

Actually the only best hope for the Homo Sapiens was lost at the last US election .. McCain. Quite probably he would have done the only thing possible to save our species with some sort of technological society .. nuclear war.

It solves a lot of problems: global warming .. gone. Population .. gone (1B gone in the first strike another 2-3b OVER the next 10 years. US gone, Europe gone (UK double gone), industrial China gone, Japan gone.

Huge dust clouds cooling the Earth and with the biggest industrial countries gone no extra CO2, or resource extraction. Hey maybe even the fish and forests will start to recover.

John Brunner's science fiction (look him up) scenario: "for the human race to survive the most wasteful have to go extinct" .. my comment "because they will never change".

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

I find its a lonely existance sometimes but I'm glad I am aware of the issues and have been able to make changes for the benefit of my family.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance 'bliss' after all?

If there is a benefit to being uninformed it is only in the example you gave above in that you wont suffer any undue stress before the event. When the problems begin they will probably be suffering far more stress than those who have made preperations though.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

Sure, and the longer you have been aware the better because its the mental adjustment that is the hardest.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Yes because even if some miracle liquid energy source that can be used immediatly in our current internal combustion engines does turn up there are always other potential disasters that could happen from your pipes freezing in cold weather(happened to us this year but I had 50 gallons of water stored) to a cat 5 hurricane.

**Bonus question - since discovering Peak Oil, have you increased alcohol consumption?

No in fact even though I have taken up meadmaking as a hobby and potential tradable commodity in the future my alcohol consumption is down. I'm not quite sure why that is as I used to be quite a heavy drinker when I was younger.

Phil, we have 2 dogs .. about feeding? If you take on the responsibility you have to take on the consquences.

The dogs saved my wife's life (and mine indirectly) so, if the c**p really hits the fan soon (I'de prefer later after we are all dead), we owe a debt of honour so they will be fed .. heck lots of kangaroos out there.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

Very happy to be ahead of the herd. More space, much clearer!

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance strength/bliss after all?

In the light of what's coming, I can't see any benefit to being unaware/uninformed. I am so grateful that I am aware and informed (about 15hrs/wk of TOD and EB, but trying to manage my addiction!) and intend to make full use of all the resources and info I can get my hands on, while the delivery systems are still in place.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

Absolutely. It certainly has influenced many important decisions I have made since I became Peak Oil aware about 2 years ago. I am consciously learning new skills and building up resources that will better prepare me and my son for the future. Most importantly, I have already dealt with the initial psychological and emotional issues of loss, despair, etc. I am learning to be more self-reliant, and to build up community, and to not trust the future that is being sold to us everyday, and upon which all policy decisions are made, and which other people are believing, which is sadly a big black hole for our remaining energy. Being Peak Oil aware, I hope I can help make myself, my community, and maybe even my country more resilient, before things start getting really hairy and we find we have squandered too much of our collective resources to respond effectively to the predicament.
The more people who are Peak Oil aware, the safer I feel for our future. Forewarned is forearmed.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Of course!

**Bonus question - based on our demographic survey 3 years ago, have you increased alcohol intake since learning of Peak Oil

No. I have increased my enjoyment of life, and improved my sense of context, scale and perspective. I actually drink less now that I have a little boy, with all the lifestyle changes that implies. But home brewed beer, and family made wine - bring it on!

Like Alan, I have been aware of resource depletion since the 70s.

I had one brilliant teacher in high school whose mission was literally to equip us for life! He was a biology teacher so after the syllabus was done (the cell to population genetics), in half the allotted time, more or less anything could be fitted in. So we did ecology by tramping about swamps, the water cycle, farming and fertility + contraception (not very technical as he was a prudent man, this was most assuredly not on the program, but things were different then), anyway he presented peak oil as a fact: another Gaussian curve!

I never forgot, but only turned my attention to it in a focussed way once I got on the internet, about 10 years ago.

The answer to Nate’s questions depend very much on one’s attitude to life - Yikes, what a truism. These are culturally, even politically, molded.

Perhaps one could lay them out along several axes:

individualist <-> collectivist.

---*caricatural* and brief throughout...

Resource use / depletion will be perceived as a more acute problem in individualist societies. Collectivism smoothes out differences which create insecurity and unhappiness and also offers, at least potentially, the opportunity for organizing, sharing, distributing, moving forwards, in some ways. (See eg. the new kinds of grass roots efforts in the US.) Collectivist societies tend to be conservative and slow to change, which is compensated for by a que sera sera attitude - we will muddle through together, when the time comes (see the Albanian family mentioned above, though their collectivism was a natural state rather than a choice.) Small or consequent changes on an individual/local level can be made without social pain, disruption. Novelties can be accepted but may be hard to propose or push through, but individual life/comfort is maintained to some degree.

dirigist (a frenchism, see link), centralizing, top/down structure <-> fractioned, multiple actors, local, corporate, other groups. Dictatorships, which may be disguised and benevolent, can accomplish more, perhaps not better, than societies fractioned by multiple belongings, different social classes/other groups, lobbying, etc. Great leaps forward are the hallmark of strong central Gvmts - ‘fascist’ and cruel sometimes, not so in other cases.

technotopic <-> traditional. The backlash against ‘modernity’ and globalization associated with a technotopia is very strong. Fixing problems with technology is perceived completely differently in different societies. For many, morality / religion / steady rules of interaction / community must come first.

France would be quote unquote, collectivist, dirigist and technotopic. The US, individualist, fractioned, technotopist. Russia, individualist, laissez-faire, and traditional.

Oh all off the dirty cuff... early night nonsense... to try emphasize that the traditional political descriptions which refer to communism (China is state-managed capitalism, as was the USSR in a lesser degree) vs. free market democracies (The US has no free market and its democracy is a TV sitcom, say) really leads ppl astray, prevents them from analyzing and acting, hampers them.

I read TOD daily and I love it. This particular thread is one of the best I have seen. I got turned off a little bit for awhile because there seemed to be a hopeless doomerism going on here. But I am encouraged to see some posts that talk about plans for mitigation of the impact of peak oil, some glimmers of hope. I am glad I am aware of peak oil because if enough of us become aware by talking with our neighbors the crisis will perhaps take us a little less by surprise.

Bonus question: My alcohol intake has escalated dangerously and I am determined to stop, but peak oil has nothing to do with it. It's more related to marital stress than anything else. BTW my wife chooses to remain ignorant about peak oil and energy issues, but she is instinctively responsible about conservation because she grew up without money. Makes me wonder if it might actually serve people best to grow up poor.

Question: has anybody here read "the millionaire next door"? It's a good book with a simple message: live within your means and if you have a lot of money, DON'T let your kids know that you're wealthy! Let them benefit from growing up with limited financial resources!

good dog )))) lol )

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?
I have spend substantial portions of my life in extremely inhospitable places (Antarctica, Central Africa etc.) away from societal support. One of the many things I learned is that Mother Nature can, at times, be a serious bitch. Many of the early explorers suffered horribly, and often died (from yellow fever or hypothermia depending on the location) because they did not understand, or respect, what they were facing. This is how I see the post-peak world. Nobody really knows what it's going to be like because no one has been there, but the more information we can gather to prepare ourselves the more comfortable we will be. And believe me, being comfortable is a wonderful thing even if your expedition ends badly. I am very happy to have become aware of it.

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that anyone who has experienced genuine adversity would ingore this information. But as many of my friends point out, over-confident, pampered naives currently constitute the vast majority of the United States population. And suffer they may.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance strength/bliss after all?
None whatsoever.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?
Yes, luck favors the prepared.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?
Absolutely

5. Optimism is healthy (for individuals). Peak Oil is unhealthy (for individuals). So how do we hone in on the fine line between optimism and realism? Or do we?
Peak Oil will more unhealthy for some indivduals than others. Optimism is knowing your going to have a good meals, and a clean comfortable bed to sleep in for the forseeable future. Maybe even with your pets.

**Bonus question - based on our demographic survey 3 years ago, have you increased alcohol intake since learning of Peak Oil
I like to drink and always have. Nothing has changed.

> 1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

I have allways liked knowledge regardless if it is worrying or not. The problem is choosing what to pursue, and how to verifie and sort the good stuff from the garbage.

> 2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance strength/bliss after all?

No, I dont like blindfolds, they add complications that could be avoided.

> 3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?

It has become an integral part of my work, I would have a big hole in my understanding of the world without knowing about the most pressing resource issues.
Knowlede do not guarantee success but success is very hard withouth relevant knowledge.

> 4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Yes, trying to solve problems is allways good. The real world is overwhelmingly complex and one way of handling that is to strive for good things withouth knowing if they will fullfill your goals. Even if there is individual, corporate, regional or national failure do reasonable mitigation efforts make the failure less bad and can give new options for what to do after the failure.

> 5. Optimism is healthy (for individuals). Peak Oil is unhealthy (for individuals). So how do we hone in on the fine line between optimism and realism? Or do we?

There is no such fine line, optimism is a leap of faith.

> **Bonus question - based on our demographic survey 3 years ago, have you increased alcohol intake since learning of Peak Oil

No.

(pops knuckles and decides to add a rambly post late on sunday, just for the heck of it)

I've been aware of the coming resource/population/mass extinction bottleneck since the '60's and peak oil specifically since '74. I'm a bit of an odd duck (slightly autistic wiring) who came to the conclusions on my own and then drastically changed my life and self-image based on them.

I'd like to note, in case I haven't come out and said it, that I appreciate all the posters here as well as the staff. Even on the weeks I don't post, I appreciate the relatively "sane" take on the world to be found here, and it means something to me to know you're all out there. It has been a lonely road, and there are many of you here - who I'll certainly never meet - who I've come to value and care about. As illusory tribes go, this'n's a pip.

I have yet to really convince myself that it's doing "normal" people a favor to try conveying to them a real understanding of our existential pickle, when they barely have the mental tools to keep track of their credit cards. It's like convincing a dog of its own mortality: who but a sadist would care to, even if they could bridge the conceptual gap? Nor would I try to convince my evangelist relatives that there is unlikely to be an afterlife.

In the past, to a few folks, I've posed the question: "if you could push a button which magically and immediately conferred an understanding of the implications of thermodynamics, peak oil and population overshoot to everyone in the world, would you push it?" My own answer is "I dunno"; I have yet to sort out how that would play, and thus can't yet support the rationale. It "feels right" to alert the other monkeys, but the way it feels may not be useful. Or it might mitigate the eventual carrying-capacity problems by causing society to collapse immediately. Enlightenment is a loaded gun in some contexts.

Regarding the questions posed:

I can imagine never hearing about peak oil, because strictly speaking I didn't hear about it. Working as a seismologist in '73-74 I undertook a little side research on my own and came up with very similar timeline conclusions to Hubbert; (I never heard of his existence until 2005.) I presented my conclusions to a number of people who assumed I was insane, and then just decided it was one more thing that normal people didn't want to know and quit talking about it. It was, after all, self-evident as far as I was concerned. I DID many times idly wish that I had not been born into the narrowing cusp of a population bottleneck, for then I'd have been a writer, musician and hedonist; but that's a pretty fanciful sort of wishing. I never understood, really, why the bottleneck wasn't the prime topic of conversation of the human race.

There has been no benefit for me to know of peak oil, etc, but there has been a benefit to the world's biota for me to know of it.

It has absolutely been unhealthy and dangerous for me to have campaigned as I have in mitigation of the crunch/bottleneck; it has taken years off my life and nearly killed me a number of times. But if I had gone through life ignorant of it and just now learned of it, I think I would feel deep despair at having boneheadedly wasted a thousand opportunities to try lessening the consequences for the world. I've earned a level of personal peace at meeting and exceeding my own standards over the last 35 years of striving.

And alcohol - can't tolerate the stuff, and my neurochemistry seems to be whacked anyhow. I don't use any psychoactive substances. Might be interesting to insert electrodes into my brain to play with different states, but I probably won't get around to it; it'd be a bit self-indulgent. Maybe a decade from now; there may be a market for drouds then. I have some ideas along those lines if there are any tinkerers here...

cheers

Nate,
Like most of the readers of TOD, I have a good income and I have enjoyed a life of privilege, with every year better than the one before. Until 4 years ago, I expected life to continue getting better. I bitterly regret that this life will not continue. Even more, I bitterly regret that my son (4 years old) will not do the things that I dreamed he would do.

However while I may wish that something is not true, this is not the same as wishing I did not know.

Addressing your questions:

Q1: If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?
A: I bitterly regret the facts associated with the limits to growth. I wish they weren’t there. But since they appear to be there, the facts need a response. So – while I am not ”happy” to know about this, it is what it is, and I must respond to it. I do not regret knowing about it.

Q2: Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance strength/bliss after all?
A: Knowledge is power. Those who choose ignorance are taking the path of short term bliss, at the expense of the long term. I believe that the facts are now plain and relatively accessible. People are now actively choosing not to see them – many are choosing ignorance because it hurts less in the here-and-now.

Q3: Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage?
A: Only if they have resources to take the needed action. I am acting on 3 levels:- i. Try to change government policy (possibly futile). ii. Alert friends and relatives (sometimes futile) and the population in general (hence I am an editor at TOD ANZ). iii. Make personal changes to my behavior to reduce my footprint. (meaningless, if everyone else does not do it, but at least in 20 years I will know that I wasn’t part of the problem). iv. Make personal preparations.
While I have a good income, it is not enough to make the personal preparations that I would prefer. It would take a significant community-sized effort to make really effective preparations (hence my level ii actions). The ideal solution would be country or world-based actions (hence my level i actions).
Having said all that – my answer is “yes” I believe that my preparations will make me and my family better off than they would have been.

Q4: Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?
A: I believe that I have a moral obligation to the next generation, and to my son, to act in a responsible fashion in reducing my footprint. The people around me think it is strange that I come to work by train. Even stranger that we only have one car (a Prius), that we don’t fly overseas for holidays, etc. This may all seem futile, but I choose to do it anyway.

Q5. Optimism is healthy (for individuals). Peak Oil is unhealthy (for individuals). So how do we hone in on the fine line between optimism and realism? Or do we?
A: I am a hopeless optimist. Always have been, always will be. I am also an exceptionally good analyst. When my analysis tells me that I’m in trouble, I plan for the best outcome possible, and then confidently assert that I can rise above this problem. I am utterly confident that I will be victorious – I always am. In this case even “victory conditions” aren’t particularly attractive, but that is not what I focus on – I focus on rising above the problem. I am extremely optimistic about achieving the best possible outcome.

**Bonus question - based on our demographic survey 3 years ago, have you increased alcohol intake since learning of Peak Oil.
A: Despite my natural inclination towards optimism, the fact that we continue to march towards disaster has troubled me in recent years and led to an increase in drinking over the last 3 years. However this was from a very low base (4 years ago I drank about 1-2 standard drinks per month, I now do 1-2 red wines most evenings). I am conscious that alcohol may become less obtainable, so I consciously try to avoid a high level of dependence.

As always, Nate, I am glad you are pushing the envelop. I hope that we can meet sometime in the fall when I am visiting Charlie Hall in Syracuse.

I don't have specific answers to your questions. I have a perspective. I would invite those who wonder about the future to visit and get a sense of that perspective.

Question Everything
George

Nate,

As you are clearly aware, ultimately, the underlying problem is not production but consumption and carrying capacity. Consumption that has manifested itself in the form of societal addiction. It is my feeling that once we are able to conquer this addiction we will all be much better off. The problem is analogous to an alcoholic not being able to tell how much better life would be without the addiction. Also problematic is being able to conquer the addiction without first hitting bottom.

I am addicted but trying to figure out a way to conquer this addiction before hitting bottom. I have yet to figure out a path. My family is also addicted making it even more complicated. I have been aware of this addiction for over 25 years and have turned a blind eye toward it and joined the crowd So, i guess, ignorance is bliss. I would have to say TOD is like a 12 step program. Though we are addicts, will we still be able to have a glass of wine or the occasional margarita after we hit bottom?

Doomster, no just a realist.

It is not a technological issue, or even an economic one. It is just humans. We are great at mobilising for something as simple as war (genetic programming?) but terrible about complex issues. Plus we compete with each other and there is always someone, somewhere who does not benefit from change .. and if they are powerful they will sabotage it (ref Australia killing solar power by the coal industry).

So, that is why we are on the Club of Romes BAU trendline and we wont deviate from it until collapse.

Look (one ref the Future Eaters by Tim Flannery) no society has changed enough to avoid collapse .. ever. They collapse. There is always a long period of war (and in extremes cannobalism), which in earlier times did not mean extinction, but now means it will, when the US goes to war with China for oil/gallium/whatever then the nukes will fly.

You have to put yourself into their mindset.. what is simpler. Changing society, investing in new technologies or going to war and taking what you want, to keep going for a short time longer. One is a rational response using you mind, the other basic genetic programming.

Ok, here is the most brutal example of how we really respond to life threatening issues ..the Holocaust. Now the people being exterminated did not fight to the death as they were marched off and take some Nazis with them. They would have lost but a lot of Germans would have died.

No they went, basically passively to the gas chamber, with some lies to comfort them along the way. So their minds told them, avoid certain death by grabbing and killing a guard, but ignored the clear reality that they were going to certain death because .. hope and optimism .. the biggest killers of humans. This is how sod all guards in any prison can contain and order about thousands of people .. the 'obey and believe instinct'.

This is where it gets ugly. When they opened the chambers they always found a pyramid of people. The old, children and women on the bottom, the younger and stronger at the top. As the gas came in they fought (far too late) to live .. and devil hang the hindmost and forget your wife, chidren, father, mother etc, you will do anything to live.

And that is how humans deal with these issues, with mind boggling stupidity.

And in all of history every society has done them same thing when it all hits the fan. The strong (ie the elites) grab what they can to keep their little lives going on in the same way for just another day. And everyone weaker gets sacrificed, one by one, group by group. Eventually you kill and eat your relatives or children.

Its our brains wiring, we are built that way. Yes there are some mutants who think differently, but we are out numbered 1E6 to 1.

And you want proof .. $ being spent in the US on any form of alternative energy (nuke, solar, etc and their uses) vs armed forces. Heck we spend more worldwide on nuclear weapons reseach that the "best, last hope for humanity" the ITER fusion project.

Thighs are the best when you eat other humans. Leave the offal for the children and women.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you,happy for being ahead of the herd?

Yes, I am trained to deal with reality whatever it is and regardless of what I would prefer reality to be. In The Matrix terminology, I am compelled to take the blue pill. Most people choose to take the red pill.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance strength/bliss after all?

In the short run, yes, if you can maintain your own personal illusion. People who are lucky enough (and luck has a lot to do with it) will be better off as long as their own personal illusion lasts that status quo will continue. Once that illusion is gone many will be unable to cope. I pity those who are investing a lot to prepare for jobs that will no longer be there.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage? And will that advantage be physical (basic needs covered) or mental (greater psychological resilience)

As far as physical needs are concerned, I have always looked on this as, ”Adjust your oxygen mask before helping others.” That will be an advantage if you help other people adjust to peak oil when they choose to deal with it. On the other hand I am not sure how much good it is to have an oxygen mask when everyone around you is suffocating and there is nothing you can do to help them.(because they won’t deal with reality.)

Mentally, if you are able to adjust your expectations to be realistic, you will find it easier to cope with many things. It’s like that serenity prayer: the serenity to accept those things I cannot change, the courage to change those things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference. It’s helpful for any addict, even those addicted to cheap energy.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Not sure what this question is driving at.

5. Optimism is healthy (for individuals). Peak Oil is unhealthy (for individuals). So how do we hone in on the fine line between optimism and realism? Or do we?

Just take things one day at a time. Do the best you can and quit worrying.

Thank you for the good article. The topic 'psychology' behind PO intrests me a lot. I also got compareable responses from the people around me.

Here are my awnsers: (Its my first comment on the oildrum. Because of your article i've created am account here)

1. No!

2. More easy living. People who don't worry too much about the future tend to be more happy.

3. Maybe in the short period from first PO related problems until PO is public knowledge.
I personally do some basic mitigation measures: Food storage for 2 weeks (in order avoid problems in the time between hoarding and rationing of food)
Investment in some energy related companies. This could help to save some of my wealth in a broken economy.

A radical change in livestyle - like becoming a farmer - could result in a more sustainable personal benefit. But i didn't do this.

4. I have to admid: I like traveling. The beeing aware of PO i plan long distance travels now, because I'm not sure if i can afford them next year. This is maybe egoistic, but its honest. Is anybody out here in this group who has similar thoughts.

5. Peak Oil is only unhealthy if you expect it to be very unpleasant for you (or better: realy accept the idea that it _will_ be very unpleasent).
I'm aware of the physics behind PO. I know that PO _can_ cause catastrophic event. However, I am kind of optimistic that i will find a way to live with PO. (or better: I repress the idea of very unpleasent events)

There is a strange way of human thinking about global bad events, like "I the world economy crashes, then at least i'm not the only one that loses his job". I often heard such statements from other people. And i also have such thoughts too sometimes. I seems that the human prefers the idea "I'm completly fucked up, but the others are worse" rather than "I'm in a bad situation (maybe not so bad as the first), and the others have no problems.

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

It's always better to have knowledge because, unlike the temporary bliss of ignorance, with knowledge you will at least understand where the pain comes from when it arrives, which is better than being in pain and not having a clue. You may also avoid some of it by preparing, even if only psychologically.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance strength/bliss after all?

No benefit, unless you are so ignorant that you can't tell better from worse, good from evil, progress from regress, etc.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage? And will that advantage be physical (basic needs covered) or mental (greater psychological resilience)

Definitely mental, and in some cases real/external.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Sure. Anything less is taking no responsibility, unless you believe your job is to speed things along to a peak crisis in order to get the worst over with. May be a tenable position, which I have recently heard put forth by a guy who promotes renewable energy and drives a Hummer!

5. Optimism is healthy (for individuals). Peak Oil is unhealthy (for individuals). So how do we hone in on the fine line between optimism and realism? Or do we?

The reality is that we don't know what the future holds in terms of unforeseen goods and ills, problems and solutions, so you may as well try to float somewhat from moment to moment while keeping in mind the long term.

**Bonus question - based on our demographic survey 3 years ago, have you increased alcohol intake since learning of Peak Oil

No. Don't want to bring about peak alcohol any sooner than necessary!.

Rube, I know. Knowledge is strength .. but more people believe (often passionately) in astrology (and ghosts and ... et al) than nuclear fusion.

So we face collective stupidity or insanity. And you or I might think differently but we are outnumbered 1E6 to 1. Plus the 'intellegence' organisations (translated Gestapo) are out to get us.

Here's a simple fact that no one in the OD can seems to understand . The US policy 'elite'
gets peak oil (etc). Heck they have known about it for years. Just their response is different to what you or I think as sensible.

Their strategy is simply war. Take it. Use the dwindling resources to enhance their power. Afghanistan and Iraq were on the firing line well before 9/11 (oil/gas and oil/gas transport). That was just an excuse for the Proles.

"We create our own reality .. and you document it .. and then we change it". Was the famous quote.

The big boys are playing their games and there is nothing we can do about it .. except try to survive, especially if they do a 1914 again (which is looking extremely probable).

As for all the great ideas in the OD, meaningless. Because the big boys are working on another plan, that if you are lucky (and it succeeds) might drop a crumb or two your way .. but only if you are a good boy of course. But if it fails, then you will suffer terribly.. they won't .. they think.

The US has a clear energy strategy, has had for decades .. its called a gun.

I refuse to believe that there can posibly be any advantage to being ignorant of these things. This is like being ignorant of the amount of gas in your tank before making a trek across the desert. That kind of ignorance gets you dead. And this kind of ignorance on a species level leads to extinction. The only way it could be healthy to be ignorant of these things is if we were meant to be slaves. How could anyone believe that? If there is one thing that all of the major religions agree on is that we are not meant to be slaves. So there is no excuse for the levels of ignorance in the world. All the ignorance is completely manufactured through various stages of mind control. Or one could think of it as occult black magic. At this point in time I do not think there is any reason to separate the two.

And it goes far beyond peaking of energy resources. There are millions of americans who think that the power to run a light bulb comes from the switch on the wall. Do you know what I am talking about? Its like dealing with someone who cannot read. What can you do? I dont have an answer to that, except to say that a person's lack of intelligence/literacy should place a hard limit on the amount of money/credit (and thus energy) they are able to get their hands on. I am optimistic that the free market can actually solve that problem, but unfortunately criminals control the market, through the mechanisms of the government which has been taken over by criminals who fooled enough of those same people who dont know where electricity comes from.

My wife is very much aware of the peak oil issue, but we have an informal agreement that it should not be a part of our nightly dinner table discussions. That's reasonable. It's really sort of a downer, since we have several children.

To cushion the energy descent which will hit us, we have made a number of serious investments in solar electric and hot water. Will all of those investments help. I don't know. My suspicion is that the complex support systems for those investments will begin to fail at some time in the next few years. In anticipation of that result, we are also attempting to institute a layered system of backup energy systems. Will those systems work. Probably, for some period of time. But not indefinitely.

Personally, I think that Eric Larsen's book "A Nation Gone Blind: America in an Age of Simplification and Deceit" is pretty much on the mark. In sum, most adult Americans should probably be thought of as aging adolescents, not really adults. As an existential threat, peak oil is less serious than having a Hitler building up a military machine on your border. I used to operate under the assumption that one of the responsibilities of adulthood was to think about and react to the really hard challenges facing a community. I guess that we have collectively gone very soft, ... in the head.

At a personal intellectual level, I am just plan curious to see how this mess of a situation, peak oil and its aftermath, is going to actually turn out. It certainly qualifies our generation as one that is "living in interesting times" to borrow the Chinese saying.

Based on my recent article on the oil drum, its obvious that I do not think that all of the earth's societies are going to fall apart as fossil fuels deplete, just most of them. Russia will make it through, as will France, once the latter country decides to drop pushing the sodium cooled fast reactors, and switches over to engineering heavy metal reactors.

Perhaps the most interesting question is whether or not Russia and/or France will throw life lines to any of the other nations of the world that are still in denial about the fossil fuel depletion problem. I think that both of those countries will move to act in that direction. Will their actions be successful. Who knows.

I was ill and didn't know it when I discovered peak oil. Lyme disease can make one disorganized and paranoid. I believe the things I did in 2007, which was the right path in retrospect, were a bit of an overreaction.

I'm glad I know, a significant portion of my time is devoted to remediation. I can't read about it every day any more than I can visit http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com without getting wrapped up in watching for the next little sign of financial collapse. I think some ignoring of the situation is optimal in terms of getting one's own house in order, no matter on what level this occurs.

I consume no alcohol or any other recreational substance and constant wrestling with Lyme makes my situation a less than valid data point in that survey.

Howdy folks, long time lurker, first time poster.

I look at peak oil as something that will happen eventually. Until then, I will eat drink and be merry (and grateful) to have lived in what will likely be looked upon as a 'golden age' for western civilization. I plan on purchasing a car this year, and it won't be a prius. It'll likely be a small fun roadster (miata). I'm just looking for something to enjoy until energy prices get to the point that I have to get a plugin hybrid (and hopefully have a house to plug it into).

1. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it, or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

Not really. At least, not any more than I wish other unpleasant things in life would go away. It's information. I'm not sure about being 'ahead of the herd' though. There's safety in numbers. ;)

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance strength/bliss after all?

Ignorance is bliss in the short term. Once the veil of ignorance is pierced by reality, though, most will have a very hard time adapting. More than a few will resort to anger: "how could they let this happen!", and lash out as who/whatever they deem a worthwhile target.
The benefit to being informed is that it gives you the opportunity to prepare. Whether an individual does, is up to them.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage? And will that advantage be physical (basic needs covered) or mental (greater psychological resilience)

Both. Mentally, being prepared will help when the downturn comes. You'll be more relaxed (perhaps that's not the best term), about events. But you will also be physically better perpared (if you have chosen to be so), in terms of health and fitness, food/fuel/housing security etc.

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

Yes.

5. Optimism is healthy (for individuals). Peak Oil is unhealthy (for individuals). So how do we hone in on the fine line between optimism and realism? Or do we?

Dunno.

**Bonus question - based on our demographic survey 3 years ago, have you increased alcohol intake since learning of Peak Oil

No, I don't drink (I have, however, noticed that I'm watching a lot more motorsports, and sports in general).

1A. If you are Peak Oil aware, do you sometimes wish you'd never have heard about it ?

A: Sometimes yes. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.
Suppose for example that doctors took a CAT scan of your head and they found an annurism (weakened, ballooned blood vessel) deep in your brain in a place where they can't get to it to fix it. It essentially is a ticking time bomb. When it blows, you're gone. Before then, you were happy just living your life. If and when the annurism blew, you would not have known what hit you. But now you know. There's noting you can do about it except to be miserable all the time. Ignorance would have been bliss. Take the blue pill.

1B. Or are you happy for being ahead of the herd?

A: Human nature is such that we are all part of the herd (tribe, clan, call it what you want). Survival on your own, truly on your own, is not sustainable. If the herd is stampeding towards the cliff, I'd rather not be at the head of it.

2. Is there any benefit to being unaware/uninformed? Is ignorance strength/bliss after all?

A: Answered in 1A. Yes for some things, ignorance can be bliss. Despite what "they" say, knowledge does not always equate with power.

3. Will being Peak Oil aware really have an advantage? And will that advantage be physical (basic needs covered) or mental (greater psychological resilience)?

A: Much as some may want to deny it, we are all interdependent on each other. No man (/woman) is an island. Imagine that you are one of these "survivalists" and you get a toothache. Beforehand, you could have gone to the dentist and gotten it taken care of with hardly a second thought. Now however, the toothache grows into an infection in your gums and jaw bone, it festers, spreads into your brain and you die a horrible death. (Or the infection can be somewhere else. A small scratch as you went trampling through the woods, a tick bite on your back followed by a red circle around it which you can't see because you're "on your own". You won't always spot it. You won't always have the right magic pills to take care of it. Even for highly trained doctors, diagnosis can be a bitch. But now you're "on your own", and sorry buddy, you ain't no rocket scientist or brain surgeon.)

4. Is adaptation and mitigation to resource depletion one example of taking personal responsibility for the future, irrespective of the outcomes?

A: There has been a huge shift in public sentiment towards Global Warming (AGW). A few years ago, you would have been called a tree-hugging commie fruitcake if you said something about AGW. Now, being "green" is all the rage. Perhaps it's too little too late. But perhaps not. Time will tell. On resource depletion and population bomb, the public is not quite there yet. They can only handle so much bad news at a time. Even if AGW is used as the excuse, switch over to non-carbon energy generation is something we must do. So far we have our minds strapped on backwards. Renewables shouldn't be cost competitive with oil. Oil should be priced according to its energy density relative to solar (1KW/m^2).

5. Optimism is healthy (for individuals). Peak Oil is unhealthy (for individuals [and society]). So how do we hone in on the fine line between optimism and realism? Or do we?

A: We need to become self-aware of who and what we are. Right now, Western society is in a Delusional Narrative stage. We tell ourselves that progress is forever. We tell ourselves that Technology will solve all problems. We tell ourselves that The Market will provide. We tell ourselves that The Obama is our savior. Pessimism is not a fun way to live. But we've got to find some more moderate road between irrational exuberance and reality.

**Bonus question - based on our demographic survey 3 years ago, have you increased alcohol intake since learning of Peak Oil?

A: No, I don't drink (I have, however, noticed a worrisome growth of drinking among college aged youth. Just now, when they need all the brain cells they can keep, they are instead burning them away. Sheesh.)