Prof Goose "Why do you come back? (to TOD)

That's easy. Everywhere I look I see a fatal disconnect from reality. Today I read a headline:Palin: Obama’s health plan is ‘downright evil’ I shudder when I think of people that would follow such an empty can as Sarah Palin. A lot of those people are my relatives (I'm originally from the south).

I found the the Oil Drum because I needed this in my life. If it didn't exist we would have invented it. Thanks for being here.

Joe

I keep coming back because the articles keep me stretching for higher competency in this fascinating subject matter. And I am always hopeful that I will find some nugget of value in the comments by your readers (I often do). It feels like community when there is respect among the voices; it feels like a dysfunctional family when it devolves to personal attacks. I wish everyone here would take to heart the sound advice of Eric Allenbaugh, "Be tough on issues, tender on people." Thank you TOD staff for all your hard work and dedication.

I think you host TOD because it is in your natures to share valid information and search for truths, and to educate people. You know that educating people is noble and may lead to small, incremental, and hopefully exponential change.

I wish the TOD staff would be welcome on various television venues, to plant the seeds of PO and sustainability knowledge much wider...a series of programs on The Discover Channel and the Science Channel and on PBS would be a good venue for an in-depth treatment of the various subjects on TOD. Probably stay clear of the talking head shows, since they are merely Jerry Springer Shows dressed up in airs.

Articles in Scientific American, Discover, Newsweek...

All prominently advertising the TOD URL and inviting people to drop by.

Getting some hearings in front of Congressional sessions. Do any Congressional Staffers or actual Congresscritters read TOD? Would they admit it? Would you be permitted to admit it?

What is to be avoided, especially in TV, is folks spouting '11' on the Doomer scale of 10. That would incite blow-back in a big way. By '11' I mean people getting in front of a camera and advocating the quick death of humanity forever. On the other hand, I don't advocate a sugar-coat either.

I advocated this before and one of the TOD staffers said that a wider media campaign was out of the question. If that is still the case, Peace. You are doing plenty already.

Shifting gears: I don't recall from the TOD reader survey...are there a goodly portion of young (under 30) people reading TOD? If there are, most of them be lurkers. The young people need to take point on this and lead the charge for change. They need to take the effort to write and phone their Congressfolk and get involved. We need to elect people who can break free of BAU...for crying out loud, we need a legion of anti-Palins.

Why do you do it?

I suspect some combination of; because it is enjoyable and interesting, some rise in perceived social status, and some spirit of true altruism. All those are linked in cortical reward pathways, much like getting money would be.

Why do I come back?

Because reading the posts and comments here make me feel at home/normal. Many in financial circles are catching on that our economic system is in shambles - here at OilDrum there is a broader, higher level of discussion (usually), that leads to some new connections/understanding of where we're really at. So when conventional/ignorant stuff gets me overwhelmed, I come and read a bit at OilDrum. Like putting on old slippers.

I enjoy the diverse range of content and the peer review aspects of your site.
Along with several others it helps to keep me motivated.
There is still much ignorance in the general population just being out here you are going to catch passing trade a good enough rationale for existence.
I recently got active locally and found huge apathy unless people are trying to build a business off the environment ticket.
Combined with political suspicions that lead to ridiculous situations e.g. I gave a 3 minute talk on Peak Oil to my Town Council - no one said a word literally apart from the Mayor to ridicule me before passing me the microphone.
The only other public contribution was put up by the council to bemoan the lack of a bypass for the town...
Still the District Council seem to be positive about a proposal I sent them for a community hydro project and they have the real clout locally.
We have an unused weir that could be used for an Archimedes screw generator e.g.http://www.settlehydro.org.uk/
The government here really seem to have woken up and are directing the various agencies to push through hydro generating schemes, which in the past would have met Environment Agency / NIMBY resistance.
The local paper are printing a piece I wrote outlining the features of the proposal and my suggestions for lobbying the politicians if they wish to see the project happen.
If the project happens you will have been a part of realising a micro generating project and in any case provide me with a reason to spend far to long on-line;¬)
Although if the site is costing you personally a significant part of your salary there is always blogging.

TOD has been a surprise. I never thought to find a site I'd wish to post to, and aside from a single yahoo discussion list, there are no others. And eventually, events will move along and I'll evaporate from this one as well, which is as it should be.

But in the meanwhile, what an extraordinarily good place to spend down-time. The volunteers that created TOD and keep it going have created an experience that draws a wonderful selection of bright folks together, representing deep knowledge and no little wisdom.

One of the most valuable things to find, by my lights, is intelligent folks who don't entirely agree with me; whose path to knowing things has been different than my own. TOD seems to have somehow captured the stable interest of an eclectic group of lateral-thinking savants, systems thinkers, technological cognoscenti and folks with gritty real-world experience. Once I realized that some of the very best stuff was in the comments below the articles, and that real-time peer review was being conducted by real folks, it became addictive.

As a person who has worked for no pay on worthwhile stuff most his life, I don't wonder why the TOD staff does it; I wonder why everyone else doesn't. Here we are with a world at stake, most folks having plenty of food and shelter and toys, and yet it is somehow considered an odd thing - a sacrifice - to do something worthwhile with one's time just for the doing of it. I tip my hat to the lot of you, staff and commenters alike.

There's no measure of success unless the goals are defined beforehand, but I think everyone who comes here and invests the time to "get it" can tell that something worthwhile is happening here. What the effect of TOD will ultimately be, we can't know. But it sure feels worth doing.

RE: improving the site, I'd be very careful. There would be no way to have achieved this exact result intentionally. Like any complex system with emergent characteristics, it will eventually move on from what it is to what it will be, which will probably be something quite different.

With no disrespect - far from it! - to those who have created it, in some ways it seems that TOD as it has existed is like the image of Jesus showing up on a burned pancake; perhaps not a miracle but also a hard thing to do intentionally, and if nothing else it attracts some attention. It wouldn't evolve the same way twice, and any change might undo it. It will deconstruct or change soon enough anyhow, but it may have interesting effects on some key minds before it does. There are a lot of websites, a lot of blogs, only one TOD.

Thanks for it.

Thanks for asking, Professor Goose.

This site makes perfect sense to me. We have a real-time, global energy system with numerous potential breaks in its shell, a real-time Global Communications Network in the internet, and we are a species that is inclined to huddle and chatter (in a good way, I mean) when they've spotted a woolly mammoth in the room, and know they have to do something about it.

I'm sure that for some if not all of the staff, there is no small satisfaction in being 'part of something worthwhile', dissect that how you might.. I think it's what we all want, we all want to make sure it works out, or if it won't, that we're not alone at the end.

Three Cheers for you guys! and then Three more!
Bob

I think we all want to understand, to know, to learn; possibly feeling that we know something, but want to sharpen that knowledge, accumulate relevant facts, adopt attitudes that are useful, guide our lives in intelligent ways. Since this is a campfire topic, with a somewhat broader range of topics, may I say

which of course begs the question: how does one define success for an endeavor like this?

could be rephrased as

which of course raises the question:

The phrase "begs the question", or "begging the question" had a quite different meaning in the past, in the context of argumentation, which meaning has of late largely been superseded in the speech of the common man. One can maintain a sense of superiority by avoiding the recent usage, or being aware of newness of the usage - just as the phrase 'the ugly American' came from the book of the same name in which the ugly American was the culturally sensitive hero, but is, or was, commonly used to denote a culturally insensitive American abroad, or even that the "p" is apoptosis is arguably silent, coming from apo+ptosis.

I love the intellectual quality of TOD. But, what hooked me in the beginning and keeps me coming back is the degree of civility. Yes, there are ad homs now and then I've been guilty a few times. However, I would look elsewhere were posters a bunch of pit bulls who attacked anyone who disagreed with them.

My favorite TOD quote would be, "You got a reference for that?"

Todd

Does it educate? Holyshit yeah!! Before I found this site, I barely knew anything about PO, but now I'm spewing production numbers and refuting BS all over the place! I come here everyday and it never dissapoints. THANK YOU!

I personally am deeply grateful to the folk that run this site. The TOD team are the glue that hold this site together and they are the people who consistently display the highest standards and deepest insights. After discovering Peak Oil in 2005 TOD inspired me to do a Masters degree "Sustainability Sciences" and I may only now just about be beginning to know something. My mood has swung from initial panic through cautious optimism to where I am now, which can be summed up as resigned acceptance that we, as a species, are in overshoot. And moreover that we are genetically pre-programmed to suffer the consequences. It will not be the end of the world, it will not mean the end of our species, but a significant die back, this century, seems inevitable. I am sorry that my children will have to live through that, but that is their destiny, as it is for every generation: to live in the world they find themselves in. We are all very lucky that TOD is what it is. Because of TOD there are many more people who have gained some understanding of our problems; and one result is that there is a cadre of people who will step up to leadership when the time is right.

I hope that illustrates what TOD means to me.

First of all, I offer my most sincere thanks to TOD staff for producing this web site. Visiting this site is truly a unique experience in many ways: it IS evidence based despite the fact that we all carry some ideological baggage; the commentary IS, for the most part, devoid of the inflammatory rhetoric that poisons so many on-line discussion sites; and, most of the commenters ARE far more knowledgeable than I am about the subject matter – which means that I am constantly learning something new.

Why do I come back?

I am trying to learn something: what are most likely to be my personal challenges in the next 20 years or so and what should I be advising my grandchildren (and now great grandchild)? It is hard to believe that BAU will prevail for very long – so just what is most likely to be the shape of life here in the US, and elsewhere on the planet, for the rest of the century (asteroids, nuclear holocaust, etc, aside). One principal taught in most business schools is to focus primarily on the most likely course of events and not overdo planning for catastrophes of marginal probability. So, I’m trying to learn what is most likely to happen in the rest of this century – recognizing the inherent margin of error in such a quest.

Before visiting TOD, I felt that GW, diminishing FF supplies, environmental degradation, species extinction, monetary debt and the like were accelerating at a pace that seriously threatened humanity (along with lots of other species). I think that overpopulation of humans is a critical driver and that “faith” based belief systems greatly inhibit our ability to think critically and observe the obvious. TOD is the only place I’ve found where these issues are openly discussed in a rational manner.

But, I’ve not reached any conclusions yet. On one extreme we have the notion that PO folks are just plan nuts. Here is Slate describing PO when their survey ranked PO as the second most likely cause of a US downfall:

“Peak Oil—"Petroleum production reaches terminal decline. Oil becomes too expensive to extract, and alternative energies can't maintain our fossil-fuel-dependent lifestyle"—is the hobbyhorse of widely read collapsists James Howard Kunstler and Dmitry Orlov. It's the scenario of choice for the modern doomsayer who thinks Western civilization has industrialized its way to destruction”

People with PO concerns are relegated to the ranks of “doomsayers” – in other words: nut cases. I think this is the most widespread view of PO.

And then we have many contributors and commenters who DO believe that we are involved in a basically doomsday scenario.

On the other hand, we have contributors and commentors who envision scenarios of hope – perhaps some intermediate pain, but overall we will rise to the challenge and then emerge with a “better way of life”.

Of course this is all very complicated and smart folks are building very complex models to deal with all the variables. But, there are some simple numbers to consider: 6.7 billion people, 380 ppm GHG, 85 mbd of oil,etc. Plus promised new technology and anticipated new technological innovation. Then some simple math in terms of consumption and supply of all natural resources (including breathable air and drinkable water). Finally, there are simple rates of increase and decrease of all these things along with rates of adaptation (things declining) and adoption (new things and methods).

The basic idea of such a model is to exercise it under different values, assumptions and scenarios. These scenarios are highly intertwined with political processes. To date, I’ve not seen such a comprehensive model. Assuming I could guess the outcomes of a technical model under various scenarios, it is most unclear how the political process would deal with this information.

I firmly believe we need such a model and we need not wait until it is 100% perfect. It is pretty clear that BAU is not going to be the model. Nor do I think that total collapse is the most logical outcome. Nor am I convinced yet (I really want to be convinced) that there is a scenario that will allow us navigate the next 90 years (to the end of the century) with reasonable grace for the human race.

TOD is the only place I know where my question is treated as a serious question.

First a heartfelt thank you to the entire TOD staff for who you are and what you do.

As for why I keep stopping by, simply to keep my sanity and counterbalance my experience in dealing with what seems to pass for normal out in there in the world at large and our day to day lives.

Since discovering computers and the internet I have lurked and posted at various sites progressing through Prodigy, USENET (sci.geo.petroleum and others), yuku downstream adventures, the Jay Hanson inspired Yahoo sites (originally Onelist) and junk science sites. But without doubt TOD has become my favorite. The fact that thus far I have not sent money may be an example of Hardin's Tragedy of the Commons. During earlier decades print media had limited energy data though my public library once subscribed to The Oil and Gas Journal.
--I retired at 68+ and have since had volunteer jobs with a medical library, a public library and the local police department. I also participate with my favorite charity Planned Parenthood. I do these things because they are interesting and enjoyable. I may get credited with "community service" but it is really the last thing on my mind. TOD is the same. I participate because it is interesting and I love it. I serve myself.

I've not been coming back so much of late.

There is way too much to do. And I have to thank the TOD community for helping me push along my understanding of what needs to be done. And Ilargi and Stoneleigh at TAE.

I had a wonderful day today. The half-farm chores in early AM. Then off to play Master Gardener on the Cumberland County "locavore" tour. To talk with all sorts of people from Southern Maine about grapes and raspberries and solar dryers and blight and food-biosecurity and how-dumb-are-industrial-meat-chickens and yes, that is poisonous. I ran out of business cards - every one of them with an "email me to ask about this" note. I ran out of "if you see this beetle call this number" Asian Longhorned Beetle cards.

Asian Longhorned Beetle? Emerald Green Beetle? Got hardwood forest - will eat. That's not so different than "got coral, will poison via CO2". A byproduct of Business As Usual. Don't expect the Steppin' Fetchit Obambis to hep any. They're into sell you out mode. Clueless SOBs.

The first apples are in. At Sweetser's, the Vista Bella and my very, very favorite Red Astrachan. Tart. I brought my date tonight the first Maine apples of the year - well, not the first, those never made it out of my backpack - and wildflowers from my meadow. She brought me stories about her adopted children and the iroquois long houses. I told her how the garden where I played Master Gardener today was overshadowed by the 4 story bay windows and surrounding lawyer foyers. She told me of her conscious choice to avoid that sort of easy envelopment. We touched on mating suitability vs control of energy. [One can do that with a sexy poetess.]

This past week I had to cut down a birch more than 2' in diameter because it was too much shade over my garden. The garden where I was answering questions today had a brand new kubota tractor parked in the shade of the 4 story lawyer foyer. Yes, I told my date, I thanked that tree out loud for the firewood and warmth it will provide - didn't seem enough. I hugged it before cutting it down.

Have you hugged your Kubota lately? Is there a clunkers-for-kubota program? That garden is smaller than what I maintain with hand tools - excepting my WMD, a big Jonsered.

Echos of "World Made By Hand". [Sorry, I skipped a few steps there - get it or don't get it.] Kunstler riles people up - good thing - but then people think because he's good at that he doesn't know what he's talking about. I've been working on a sci-fi project and will have to acknowledge "World Made By Hand" because it's been there first. Except for the zombies; I've got zombies and Lyme disease and Asian Beetles gone native. Plagues and entire eco-systems destroyed by the likes of Wal-Mart.

Which brings me around to hope. I've had it with hope. Here are two of my heros discussing hope, Chris Hedges and Laura Flanders. Hope has been a topic of discussion in our local permaculture groups. It seems that people need hope to get up in the morning. But a realistic assement of the situation tells anyone with a brain stacked on the amygdalla stem that there is no hope. Only do the right thing in a hopeless situation.

Earthmarines to jewishfarmers. There's great stuff here and wonderful people working on it. But it's too late. Too late. Too late. Way too late.

Maybe some of us can play the role of the string quartet as the Titanic went down. Maybe some the Jewish Resistance blowing every bit of the machine into smaller bits.

Except those smaller bits form into new machines. Cat's Cradle.

cfm in Gray, ME

I discovered TOD during the beginning of the capital markets collapse on September 15th 2008. I actually found the site through a brief mention on a Youtube video lecture that some professor in a tent was making to a handful of people. I knew a little about some of the ills society was plagued with and the inevitable resource crunch that the human race faces but like most Americans I did not think this problem was going to interrupt my way of life in the immediate future. I also didn't fully realize the significance of EROEI or how closely our economy was tied to energy consumption.

After the collapse in September/October I started deeply questioning what just happened and started looking for REAL answers as the events in our financial markets that were unfolding were clearly significant. I realized later on that most of the major investment banks and other companies imploding overnight was not simply a result of bad sub-prime loans or financial derivatives, but that this implosion was a result of excessive leveraging between 2004-2008 in a desperate attempt to maintain growth in a world that had reached a physical limit in crude production.

Do I know that this is absolutely true? Well no, but based on the data as we all know here on TOD and from other research it is extremely plausible that the world cannot produce anymore crude than it did in 2005. Maybe we can eek out a little more from Canada, from Brazil off-shore projects, the north pole etc. but for the most part we know the rate of decline is almost impossible to offset AND maintain growth.

I think the mention of burn out from the staff maybe partially true, the past 10 months have been exhausting as well as an information overload. Here I am coming back from a friends wedding and still thinking about what kind of future is in store for us all now that we have witnessed so much. It sounds cliche but I do feel that our future has never been more uncertain.

Your thesis, and many other concepts on TOD are now showing relevance like never before, with strong data emerging from the past several years supporting your arguments. Additionally most of the major financial institutions as well as the EIA have recognized and publicly stated in the past 6 months the supply side problem and looming price crunch now facing the oil & gas industry.

In my opinion TOD is one of the most intelligent and politically neutral conversations about our current energy situation in the world and it helps me filter out the BS and focus on data and real critical analysis of wtf is going on. That's what keeps me coming back, where else can you get this level of quality data/analysis and caliber of people all in one place? I mean these aren't exactly the kind of topics you can easily bring up at a cocktail party either =).

I do question as events continue to unfold, if we see more evidence of declining energy supplies and its undesirable outcomes, what then becomes the mission of TOD contributors and followers?

I came to Peak Oil via Savinar and Kunstler - so I started out with an extremely hard line Doomer-ish outlook.

I have a daily trawl to see what is happening in the Peak Oil world and that is how I came by TOD.

I might add that I have changed my lifestyle completely away from BAU. I threw the lot up in the face of what might, just might happen. It is a risk that I personally was not prepared to ignore. This place (with the possible purchase of another acre of land, just for growing firewood) will support an extended family. There are many such living in the village, maybe spread over a couple of plots. If TSHTF (I fear 'when'!) there is a place of safety here for such of my children and grandchildren that would choose to use it. Their choice. I feel myself as being merely the custodian of this particular fertile patch of gods earth.

Campfire has now become regular reading for me. I echo what other commenters have said about the standard of knowledge displayed here by contributors. That is the general contributors, not TOD team - their knowledge goes without saying. Other fora are full of posters who have nothing to say other than "Chicken Little" "The Sky Is Falling"-type abuse. No reasoned arguments, nothing.

Thanks TOD team. Just keep up the good work!

And so it is, in our minds, we are formulating "thoughtforms" on the mental plane. Creating a subtle picture of the big set of problems humanity faces in mental matter. This then slowly "trickles down" into everyday consciousness, and once a critical mass of folks are onto the problem, change will happen.

This "allocation of mental time to wrestling with our problems" is how an esotericist would define SERVICE.

They would further go on to talk about "group consciousness", how we are actually acting as one mind disseminated as many "non-local, acausal trans-dimensional nodes".

Sometimes SERVICE seems futile, Sometimes you really feel it's going somewhere: "... such is the hill and valley experience of the Server..."

The saying "It is always Darkest before Dawn" comes to mind for those showing fatigue at the endeavour; REST HEALS.

There is a good "small sample" here of trained minds interacting with the rest of us. That is often entertaining, informative, inspiring, infuriating and I read here to trigger my intuition to view some HOPE for humanity by looking at what humanity is thinking right now. For me, all this "lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'int" actually inspires it's subject: HOPE.

OUR difficulties won't magically solve themselves, people have to face them, TOD is the first wave of volunteers.

Hope and Cheerfulness come from within, they are "spiritual materials", WE have to create them from within. Hope or Faith in externalities, materialism, is what got us into this mess.

Should any of you scientists wish to "flame" me for this, just remember, it's hurricane season-;)

An example of books that relate to my above comments.
"Telepathy and the Etheric Vehicle" and "Discipleship in The New Age" Alice A Bailey
A New Science of Life" Rupert Sheldrake

I'm one of the silent ones who check you out daily, as a dose of reality (as I understand it) after yet another day of watching the great unknowing, scurrying about their 'business'. Sometimes I reckon I know how Jonathan Livingston Seagull felt, watching that wheeling squawking breakfast flock.
I'm away down at the whip-end of New Zealand, but I have more in common with oldfarmermac than I do with my neighbours.
You guys are the best of the very few (or is that a few of the very best?) Don't stop yet.

I agree with most everything said by Greenish, oldfarmermac, and jokuhl; and with most of what the others before me have said.

Why do you do this? You said it yourself, Prof: you're academics: you teach, and seek to learn. In The Wordly Philosophers Robert Heilbroner quotes a wonderful observation by Maria Edgeworth about the friendship of David Ricardo and Thomas Malthus: "They hunted together in search of the Truth, and huzzaed when they found her, without caring who found her first." I think this applies in spades to the staff and contributors of the Oil Drum, and to many of the commenters.

I see The Oil Drum as a modern "Academy" - the debating group-cum-school of Plato and the other members of the Socratic school. Hunting after truth is necessarily a laborious, fractious, repetitive and wearing business - one must explain over and over to new seekers why they should not seek down the same blind alley that others have, and then watch them do it. And do it again. Nevertheless, it's one of very few worthwhile activities.

The Oil Drum is enormously successful from this perspective. The new medium ("web 2.0") helps considerably - debates are preserved as they are created.

Some might say that the proper place for this kind of activity is the University. I have felt for some time that modern universities have returned to the vices of their mediaeval ancestors - vices summed up in the term Scholasticism. Nothing can be expected from them.

A story is told that Steve Jobs recruited John Sculley from PepsiCo to Apple by asking him "do you want to spend the rest of your life selling sugared water or do you want a chance to change the world?" The staff of The Oil Drum are definitely doing the latter, in several different ways.

Success, for an enterprise such as The Oil Drum, is summed up in the phrase "everybody knows." When "everybody knows" the facts (and their implications) that you have worked so hard, for so long, to unearth, or when everybody knows "this is how to have a proper exploratory discussion on the Internet," The Oil Drum can say "we've made it."

Why do I come here? For JoulesBurns's clear, cool, measured analysis of hyped technologies, for Robert Rapier's brisk assessments of biotech, for Heading Out's (and others') explanations of the technology and techniques we all depend on, for Nate's (and others') exegesis of the psychosocial roots of our predicament, for Ugo Bardi's systems-theoretic perspective, for the Dispersive Discovery Model, the Export Land Model, and many, many other significant ideas, for a source of believable statistics and explanations about energy, for Leanan's ongoing presentation of an alternative news made up of pieces from the "mainstream media" - the most eloquent demonstration of our society's collective schizophrenia that I can imagine, and for the comments by other readers - some of the most perceptive, fresh, and pithy thoughts available anywhere.

I visit TOD frequently but post very infrequently!

What I like about the site is the measured, sober analysis of issues that in many other if not most places in cyberspace cannot be even mentioned in passing without a form of verbal trench-warfare breaking out. Did anybody else witness the hysterics that occurred following the recent piece on PO and the IEA in the UK paper The Independent?

I came to the broad subject-field via the Transition Towns movement and as a geologist with experience in the economic sector of things in the ground. Until about 2005 the insanity of the paradigm of infinite economic growth on a finite planet had not even occurred to me. Once you get that bit of the equation, you naturally hunger for more information, as I guess we all do on here - we would not be here if we did not have inquiring minds that question the world that we live in and its values, as opposed to accepting them with blind faith.

Thanks for keeping up such a great and informative service!

Cheers - John

I think that the staff here at TOD have all arrived at that intellectual place called reality, looked it squarely in the face and come to the conclusion that we cna only get through this by collectively working at it. There is a community here that is real. There is nothing virtual about it. Real community is something we carry within us but we have to keep filling it up. The way to draw strenght from any community is to contribute more of yourself and immerse yourslef in it. That's why I come back. To drink from the well.

TOD has inspired me to quit my job and go to university for the first time. I'm studying for a BSc in Sustainable Energy Management and i hope that it will give me the confidence and ability to contribute more both to this community and the physical one that I dwell in each day. I envy you wordsmiths who seem to effortlessly convey your passions and ideas here, while I hack away at clumsy paragraphs and trip over ideas. I hope that I can become a better contributor to this community and give back as much as i ahve drawn from it.

I love TOD! I read it daily, such an amazing bunch of people and ideas here.

Its a great place to chat with people that acknowledge, reality does exists!

Sooner or later the collective fantasy of perpetual growth in the consensus trance* will end.

Sometimes you need a kick in the butt to remember that nothing is really free, if you like TOD support it! Yes I donated today. :)

*A term coined by my favorite author James Howard Kunstler. www.kunstler.com
I'm sure all of you know his works.

First I want to thank Prof. Goose, Dave, all the other staffers at TOD, and the intelligent commentators of TOD for providing the most intelligent and useful Web Site on the Internet.

I read TOD everyday for many of the reasons give in this discussion. I want knowledge and intelligent discussion on the most important problem of our day. I use my knowledge to make my two married daughters and their families aware of PO and how best to deal with it. Later this summer I will start the education of my oldest granddaughter’s boyfriend. No, I do not know the best way to deal with the events that are being caused by PO. I wish I did. To learn more about PO and how to deal best with its consequences is why I keep reading TOD. The intelligent discussion of these problems is one of my main source of knowledge.

I use the my knowledge of Peak Oil in:
making my personal investments,
in educating my children and grandchildren,
in preparing a talk I am schedule to give this fall to a local community group, and
in telling individuals that I encounter and will listen about PO.

I too have a feeling of trying to serve my community. I don’t pretend to know why, but I can understand and respect TOD staff for their service.

I have always felt that the powerful have a responsibility to help the less powerful. Power can be derived from knowledge, position, or wealth.

If you see a car with the license plate “Peak0il” there is about a one in fifty chance its me:-).

Way back in the 1970s I looked at all the economic problems and realized that prosperity is dependent on affordable energy. To paraphrase Einstein "Energy is everything"! Without energy nothing gets done and that includes everything the economy does. The politicians argue about financial matters and business regulation but without affordable energy all manner of financial trickery mean nothing. Who the Sec of Energy is carries more weight than who the Sec of Treasury is.

Back in the late 1990s I read a Scientific American article about peak oil and its consequences. It predicted peak oil would hit around 2005 based on the peak of discovery occurring 40 years earlier. I realized that the party in power when that happened would bare the blame for all the consequences for many years to come.

The Drum has introduced me to many energy concepts such as the potential of thorium and the many different chemistry combinations of lithium batteries. I have learned much about fossil fuel technology from Heading Out. I have learned that it takes invested energy to make life more energy efficient. I have learned that if each of is does a little bit than very little will get done. It is obvious that a WW II scale response is needed to take us off our dependence on fossil fuels. We all need to accept that there is such a thing as good governance and that we are in this together. Our population density and our technological sophistication are so high that closer government regulations such as fuel rationing will be our only option for escaping deadly anarchy.

-GREAT POST!!!!-

I've read a few posts criticizing peoples research here, and I just sigh. At times it seems as if everyone forgets, that in the end, innocent people are going to die: slow, painful, horrific, starvation deaths... if they aren't killed in the political unrest and wars that will soon come.

Do keep in mind, the average person on earth has NO IDEA how close to chaos and peril the world is nearing with regards to energy insecurity, and the political/geo-political consequences of it.

I dare you to walk into any room full of people who know nothing about oil production, try and explain "Peak oil" and see if -ANY- of them take your seriously.

Today the world has over 1 BILLION people who are "food insecure". This number will only grow when the costs of oil goes up, thus causing the price of fertilizer to up as well. Food Aid budgets will be consumed by the cost to transport the food aid that can be afforded.

I think this we can all agree:
We are on the edge of something awful, in the history of -ALL- humanity.

We are lucky, if not blessed, to be ahead in the "Awareness curve". And with that, comes responsibility. Responsibility to inform, and to do all we can to ensure the safety of others. For me, this has NOTHING to do with money.

I use the info here, to try and understand the problems, the timelines, and then "game out" the political and geo-political fall out, calculate the probability of that info, and then share it with friends/family so that they can not only prepare themselves, and their lives... but also understand US, EU, AU, policy.

We are nearing the breaking point, for human civilization. We expanded too much, we became too dependant on fossil fuels... and history will look back on this 100 years from now and call it a massive, terrible tragedy. I think its reasonable to think that perhaps a billion people could die as a result of wars, starvation, and the results of civil collapse in "less stable nations", when the world KNOWS we have peaked. And if we really let things get out of control, I think 2 billion deaths is "on the table".

We can argue and debate the numbers of millions of barrels of oil that one nations MAY or MAY NOT produce this year... but we know how the game ENDS.

I would rather see all of us debate ways to try to spare as many lives as possible.
We know innocent people are going to die... we can make a difference.
Will we... and how will you?
~Bule_Wulvz

The reason I log on to this blog daily or close to it, is that it provides the most detailed and timely news on a variety of energy (and future survival) topics. I'm constantly amazed at the details, the knowledge of industry sources, the graphs, and the generally good quality of the writing, and it's all for free. I tell my spouse -- these people do that and they don't even get paid!

This can be contrasted to the long term, general deterioration, of the main stream media print and of course TV.

One thought I'm in the process of exploring is that is that once any job becomes salary based and part of a bureaucratized system, the focus of the people in the system immediately changes -- away from whatever the essential mission was that justified the work in the first place. The more the farmers are involved in government supported agriculture, the worse the quality of the food; the bigger the medical system, the less the actual healthcare, the more elaborate the educational system, the less actual learning. In the 1776 blockbuster by Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, Smith muses why anyone would put anyone on salary in the first place .....

I come here to find rationality in a largely irrational world (and getting worse). As well as a great resource in its own right, TOD is also a portal to information and individuals that I never knew. Martenson, Bartlett, Hirsh... Well, you know.

A daily snapshot of the zeitgeist, for better or worse, is invaluable, so much well deserved thanks to Leanan and Gail.

The most important thing for me is to truly understand the issues, the hype, the agenda and the motivations, rather than wallow in delusions, complacency or ignorance. In moving forward, it is essential that we act from a reality base, regardless of how bleak things may seem. If I can disabuse just one boondoggle or hare brained scheme, then that's something.

TOD sets itself apart in that it is not just a facts and figures energy site. Economics, politics, finance and psychology are critical aspects which, if not understood, gives one a very incomplete picture.

Personally, this has led me to decisions which I would not have dreamed of a short two years ago. As a byproduct, I can and will inform, debunk, refute and cajole whenever and whenever I see an opportunity.

It may not seem like much, but laying the groundwork might just be the seed for people to perk up and pay attention, when the MSM finally becomes aware of the situation. This appears to be slowly starting as we speak, but I doubt that the majority will ever "get it", poor levels of education and high levels of propaganda will see to that.

This does not diminish TOD but makes it that much more important and I sincerely thank everyone involved.

Bob

One thing that might be interesting would be for each of those who have actually donated over $25 each year to help maintain TOD to have an Astrix or something attached to their name/handle so everyone knows who donated?

I read TOD from Greed, plain old Greed. No, not for money, but Greed for knowledge. I find access and reference to vast stores of technical knowledge that I could find no-where else at one single source anywhere one the web.

The work of the staff and the work and knowledge that the article presenters give the rest of us free gratis is very much appreciated by me.

I would like to add my thanks to the staff and readers of TOD for their often insightful contributions. I think this is a unique community with an ability to discuss subjects which MSM just will not touch. I think the concept of service is strong here.

IMHO sometimes the comments go too far towards the doomer's perspective but I can understand why, when the implications are usually without any happy answers (or answers at all).

I found TOD from the ODAC site and was completely ignorant of the whole topic until only recently. The quality of comment on this site really brought it to life for me - many of the other forums degrade into is-isn't patterns, lots of personal slander or most worrying - no comments at all. Most of the time this site manages to stay on topic and even when it doesn't, you get plenty of useful views along the way.

The endless growth paradigm is so strong in my generation that any hesitating gets you instantly dismissed as a doomer - I see this clearly in my extended family and much more at work. However my own view is that everyone has an opinion but concensus is NOT evidence. Anyone that can see some of the analysis presented here and not react is blinkered. Much of the analysis is starting to be mirrored by world organisations - but I saw it here first.

I agree with many of the people above deploring the mindless drivel that emerged in the comments from the recent Independent story on PO. It is easy to think there are no sane people left.

My only slight complaint is the huge US focus in discussions and this again is understandable, based on the founders and dominant posters, but may not reflect the true ~12k? readership. The US future is not the world's future - but it will have a significant role to play with those huge grain exports if nothing else. A quick glance might conclude that parts of Europe and even parts of the East are just getting on with transition which the US is stuck debating. That said, I would be the first to acknowledge that many projects are PR and window-dressing, and so I will continue to look to this community for well reasoned perspectives.

Keep up the good work.

I think this site exists to act as a medium for discussion, just like most other websites. It's nothing new. What differs about TOD is, of course, the content. I have yet to find another place where such issues are discussed by intelligent and educated, but most importantly open minded people. That's what draws me to TOD.

Also, as a historian, I am constantly trying to rationalize the world and 'connect the dots'. The mainstream media is useless. My education has not done much more than equip me with the skills needed to learn and analyze. Therefore, when the financial world began to spiral downwards, I needed to understand why. Eventually my research led me here...

So to answer the question of whether this site is successful and why, I would say that it is as successful as it could be. I think most Americans are ignorant and reluctant to learn; especially when it means questioning their [comfortable] lifestyle. Most people don't want to consider that the next 20 years may, and most likely will, be completely different than anything they've known or anticipated.

Thus, as I'm sure most of you have observed, this site is mainly populated by critically thinking people that are eager to learn. That more or less guarantees success [for the site], so long as things stay civil, which seems to be the case.

The site itself isn't going to change anything. The readers and participants are the agents that are out there in the world interacting with others and making decisions for, talking with, educating, etc... their families, friends, and loved ones.

In regards to the site getting the message mainstream: (Warning: OPINIONS) If you look up status quo in the dictionary, mainstream media will be in the list of synonyms. One might think that given the sensationalist and fear mongering tendencies of the media, that peak oil would be mentioned fairly frequently. Although it hasn't happened yet, it might, and that may be an angle to play for those of you that are trying to spread the message on a large scale. Initially, of course, it won't be taken seriously, but the peak oil scenario answers a lot of questions and I wouldn't discount the possibility of the concept catching on, as global warming has. One thing I think is that the peak oil message can be easily convoluted or contradictory to itself if not explained properly. Something to think about...

Hopefully that answers most of the questions posed.

Thanks for everyone's contributions and hard work.

There are hardly any sites online that are as reality-based as The Oil Drum. Most of the others are based in faith, fear or fantasy .. reflecting the blind values of our society at large. It's a comfort to know that many others out there are paying attention too. It's a joy to be given the opportunity to learn from and communicate with each other in a generally civil discourse.

Thanks to all at TOD for making it happen. It is definitely worth the effort.

As with all virtual communities, it's a little too easy to settle into the illusion that posting and commenting are constructive ends in themselves. We must remind ourselves that the highest use of the information discussed here is for all of us to go out and try to manifest some of these ideas in the real world, in our own neighborhoods around the globe. Lead by example, not by comment or complaint.

We cannot depend on any government or mass communications medium to relay these messages.

We are the messengers.

The strength of this site is also its weakness. It has the both virtues and the classic drawback of academe – specifically, the desire to educate, to reason empirically, to serve society in some way, as well as the “ivory tower” mentality.

The best example of this was that series on passive solar design. Well-researched, well-written, informative, but basically useless to most of us. We will not have the opportunity to start from scratch - get some land where we can orient a home properly and build in all the requisite features. Instead, we will be, to use Sharon Astyk’s phrase, “adapting in place.”

I come here b/c I learn a lot. But I get frustrated with a site run and frequented by engineers and others with fantastic technical knowledge I lack who, like the economists they often ridicule, “assume we have a can opener.” Because assuming the average person can, in this economy (which as we know will not be going back to BAU) run out and build a properly designed solar home is akin to assuming we have a can opener.

Sometimes I come here just for the amusement – the heated arguments about how much sooner or later we’re all going to die. Or the human interest factor – watching techies who understand peak oil and its implications grasp again for the high tech solution.

But for actual practical help for things I can do now, I turn to people like Sharon Astyk. Interestingly, she, like me, is trained as an academic but doesn’t have a career as one. With a foot in both worlds, we are able to appreciate and learn from academics but as outsiders, also see the limitations. She is trained in literature, I in sociology. We need you engineers to help us with the technical aspects of making some sort of transition.

lilith

Wow!! This has hit me right between the right and left Atrium! This is a wonderful dimension to be brought to the Oildrum. I come back because of posts, and contributions like this-burned off by burnout. Thanks prof and all!!!

Why do *you* think these people are doing this? Why is it successful? Is it successful?

I believe it is altruism. The primary contributors including Nate, Gail, RR, Heading Out and all the offshore folks, never come off as self serving. I could be wrong ;-) That is what works. I may not agree all the time and I'm often overwhelmed but I come back as a reader and (as HereinHalifax so eloquently put it) dull butterknife to get news from this subculture.

It is successful because it is a fact based alternative voice. So rare, so rare....

There are a lot of posters up thread that may not understand the concept of altruism, confusing caring for others, community and compassion as slavery or mass delusion. That I disagree with their rants is my privilege. That they can post freely here is theirs. This is an open, free and self regulated board. THAT is extremely valuable and also rare.

Why do I pay cash money to rent our Library meeting room and give free public presentations on peak oil?
Because knowledge is power.
And one of the little contributions I can make is to help empower people. THAT’s why I think you do it. You have helped to empower me, so that I can pass it on.

That, for me, means you are succeeding. You represent, IMHO, the best of the Internet: a broad selection and aggregation of real, hard data, along with an offering of analyses, interpretations and yes, opinions. All offered up with a generous helping of peer review and open critique. And your contributors do an admirable job of leaving politics out of their analyses. Even the comments surprise me in that regard.

So I plan to continue my near-daily visits to TOD. For another recharge of my power!
Please keep up the great work!

Yes, this string of posts, with the variety of opinions, ideas, thoughts is a great example of the mental chessplaying and soul searching that keeps us coming back, even when we may differ in our outlook and our take on the "big picture".

Where did I once hear the quote (?) that the only way to a solution is by thinking about it, thinking some more, and then...think some more.

But of course the day comes when we have to choose our position and live with the consequences. The best we can hope for in a less than perfect world is that we have given all the consideration and attention to the options we could possibly afford before we made the leap. The acronym "YAHOO" (You Always Have Other Options) apply until you hit the grave! TOD helps us be aware of other options, and for that we can say thanks, the exercise is well worth it, and off we go into the future!

RC

so, in case anyone looks at the bottom of the list... I think the magic of theoildrum is that it collected a large group of 1)numerate 2)curious 3)people who care about the physical world and 4)a simple profound issue that involves an exceptionally large amount of money and the fate of mankind.

I post that someone may be able to show how the data I have is wrong and give me
leads to show why they are right. (This is where I get the most value from TOD
)

Dead-Bob-from-Galveston's pointing out how fish and mammal prions are different
is a fine example.

I also post bits to expand others worldview. On occasions that happens. (staub
er products as an example)

And I post that I educate to therefore clear up ignorance. With the occasional
"wow this is out there" post.

(oh and try to be as arrogant seeming as possible - that usually gets a few to p
rovide a well researched POV posted to try to change minds VS a bunch of BS post
s.)

I come here to read others data and POV - some have changed what I do, others wh
at perceptual lenses I view the world and history.

But enough of me.

Without Leanan (attempting/succeeding) sorting though the BS to create the drumb
beats, or superG having nothing to do - then having to patch the system because
of flaw X, or the people who make the guest posts (not to mention the ppl who ac
cept/filter em) - there would be no TOD.

I used to have "OhMeGawd, I'm getting old" moments. They are not so potent now.
But I do feel the pressure of time.

I come back to this site to escape the dross fed to the ranks. Have you yanks seen your TV?

If I may be so bold as to offer an observation.

Chaos theory shows that even simple mathematical expressions can have deep structure and lead to unexpected outcomes. Perhaps we should be a little humble when expressing absolutes.

On the other hand chaos theory shows that the truth circles a strange attractor, so we cannot say that anything is possible.

You are part of the show. What will suprise us next?

I come here to learn, and to express and test my ideas. Everyone else comes to show off, to compensate for their ego-deficiency....[/attempted sense of humor off>

Actually, it reminds me of how when I got involved in the Birmingham Friends of the Earth, I found I learned more from there than I had learnt in all my formal education (albeit that wasn't so much!).

And I recall well, about 2 yrs ago, I decided my next task was to learn all about peak energy, and not least deepen my knowledge of how economics worked in dodgy theory and in real practice. For the latter fortunately I found the Chris Martenson course (from here I think). For the rest, I have plagiarised much of my learning and thinking from this site, so it's perhaps natural that I will rate it as uniquely as others do above.

When I first visited here (about 2 yrs ago) I thought it was a bit too technically-abstruse and the volume of comments was (already) intimidating. I still struggle to half-keep up with it all. (Memmel and some others regrettably I have to scroll past.)

What is remarkable is the difference from most web-forums of any size, which get destroyed by very low quality input (see eg the guardian.co.uk comment-is-free which is just a brain-dead posters' time-wasting exercise despite (or rather because of) heavy "moderation"). I think what has most effectively filtered this dross out from TOD (my own indiscretions apart) has been the engineeringy name of the site, automatically repelling any non-engineeringy-minded people, which means most of the woolly thinkers and ideologically-jerking sorts.