Gail,
the assumption;
"Over the very long term, it seems to me that businesses will be much smaller and more local and there will be a great deal more manual labor."
appears to be based on the idea that after peak oil and peak FF transportation costs will be much higher and we will have almost no electrical energy available form nuclear or renewable energy resources.

Electricity is so useful and so inexpensive ( even generated from wind or solar energy) why would people stop using it and go back to what, candles made from animal fat, using hand tools instead of electric, walking instead of driving electric cars, using horses to pull barges on canals instead of using electric rail transport.?

It's hard to know what careers will be needed in the future, but it's a fairly safe bet that we will be using electricity for at least the next 1000 years. Nothing else is really very certain, a broad University or Technical education will only be a disadvantage if we have a crazy "anti-science" Taliban type revolution.

very interesting question. Of course we should begin preparing now. As a doomer i would probably recommend the military. But that is probably going to be a dead end, literally. If we make it through the first major bottleneck I would recommend some form of the natural sciences. Biology would be my first choice. Religion is poised to make a major comeback and a general knowledge of how the natural world works and mans/womens place in it will be very important. advanced degrees for only the brightest. Otherwise, pick a trade that can be sustainable with renewable resources providing the basics, ie. food, shelter, healthcare,etc. Most will be involved in a agricultural related area. Permaculture knowledge will be very valuable.

I would recommend a college student study one of these areas:

- Chemical Engineering. Need to design chemical processing facilities that do not use oil as an input.
- Genetic Engineering for plants. Develop better algae for biodiesel.
- Materials Science. Batteries, construction materials that require less energy, nanomaterials. All will be needed in the transition to a post-oil economy.
- Nuclear Engineers. Combine that with Mandarin for a promising career in China for Western suppliers of nuclear equipment for Chinese nuclear plants.

A larger fraction of all energy will be delivered as electricity. But it is not clear to me what one should study in order to develop substitute capital equipment.

Countless careers requiring countless hours of hand-pollination-->enuf said. Can we 'Bee'-any-wiser by practicing the half-glass Peakoil Shoutout with a 'Bud'-wise-er?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

If you are already a working adult I think you need to think about which company to work for. Which companies will shrink the least when oil production drops every year? Where are you most likely to stay employed?

Another consideration: Where to live? Some areas will be harder hit than others. Looking at it geographically where do you want to move out of? Some of the icebox states look like they'll be hit hard due to higher heating costs. Worst case: You live in an icebox state with oil heater and a long commute from a rural house to a job at an oil refinery or other occupation that's going go way downsize.

So look at it another way: What sort of job or geographical location to bail out of now?

On the bright side where I live: I walk to work and have very low heating and cooling bills since the climate near the Pacific Ocean is very mild. On the downside: I expect my industry to drastically shrink.

--Electricity / no electricity
--Water / no running water
--Electric cars / solar cars / trains / walking

What I see in my apocalypse light view of things is that services that used to be community based will be up to the individual to provide.

--Grid Electricity / individually owned wind and solar
--Municipal Water / Your own well
--Public transit / Electric car, bicycle, scooter.

There is no shortage of energy..just a shortage of a way to capture & put it to use. As long as the sun exists, we'll have wind, water & solar energy. They'll be lots of jobs doing that..and electricity will pay a big part.

I'm not a doomer. I think there is going to be some changes coming, big ones, but we're not going to be using candles again. But if you really want to get in a good business, open a store that sells locally grown food and teach people how to cook.

I am not sure about electricity. It is one thing to generate it, but quite another to distribute it. The grid is aging and past its anticipated useful life span in many places. In particular the North East comes to mind. If we can't find the money or political will to maintain it now, I don't see that happening in the future.

Distributed generation might be an option; however, the cost of developing the infrastructure and questions of ROI cast doubt on this approach.

I see energy production as a patch work quilt of solutions, whatever can be made to work in a given geographic area is what we will get.

When I was a kid, everybody- well, almost everybody- knew at least a little how to fix things. I started off on my fixit man career when my mother complained that her favorite table fan would not work. I gave it a spin and immediately saw that the problem was a bent blade hitting the guard. So I bent it back, and got lavish praise from my once-again cooled mother for this utterly trivial bit of detective work.

Onward and upward. First law of the fixit man-just look at the thing and see if there is anything obviously wrong- there almost always is. Then, fix it. I had a totally undeserved reputation for deep knowledge of radios when in fact all I did was look for the tube that had no glowing wire in it, pull it out, and go buy another one.

I am amazed that there seem to be so few such people around today. Gotta be a profession in great demand when TSHTF.

Yes, yes, I know that radios today are just a little chip, like a cockroach, and can no more be fixed than a stepped-on roach. But, on the other hand, they still have a power cord and wires to the speakers, and so on-- .

How about a business turning old car engines into wood gas burning electric generators, or, that super simple stirling engine I have been working on for about 70 years? It has started to really work just about the time I have started to really not work. Time to pass the banner.

I am looking around for some lean and hungry monomaniac totally uninterested in money and totally addicted to 19th century engineering.

PS- I got a really great bike transmission too, people are astonished by it, but so far not so astonished that they will pull out their wallet. They are way too fat to be interested in any bike- perfect transmission or no.

My father, a military man, loved to belabor his theory that empires collapse when they get too successful and hence fat and lazy. Then it's time for the barbarians to climb the walls and butcher 'em. We shall see.

I think that most likely in 100 years Western civilization will be roughly where it was 100 years ago in the following respect...very dependent on draft animals and trains for movement of people and goods, with cars reserved for a relatively few who have extra money. I think that this change in transportation habits will be the most dramatically different thing about our economy and politics.

In as much as this affects job/career choices for people in a decade or so when such trends will be discernible to everyone...

-If you have a job in the energy or railroad industry, hang onto it. Especially renewable energy.
-I suspect that in developed countries a larger number of people will be working on farms than today. A lot of skills to be learned to do that.
-If you are someone who knows how to breed draft animals, you might end up receiving a lot (not necessarily money) in return for teaching people what you know.
-Any kind of practical handiness - knowing how to fix things instead of buying a new one from China - will probably be more valuable in the future than it is today.
-If your current job is about marketing the latest plastic schlock, don't count on being able to keep that employment for a long time.

(Whether or not there will 'be' electricity or running water is too simple a question, btw. There will likely be powerful people who have these things and poor people who don't, just as there are now. The question is in what proportions, globally as well as locally. This is as much a matter of politics as anything else.)

Were I approaching or just beyond the end of serving my compulsory education time, my first choice would be to find, before they go extinct, a good old-fashioned (non-CNC) machinist and apprentice myself to him or her, even paying for the privilege if necessary, and spend 5-10 years learning what they could teach me. Competent machinists with serviceable tools will be absolutely critical to maintaining any kind of existence above the absolute minimum subsistence level. Become a skilled machinist, and you will never - ever - have to look for work.

Short of that - if, for example, metal-working doesn't appeal to you, or you don't have the capacities it requires - hie thee to an Amish farm (not hard - they're everywhere east of the Mississippi) and apprentice there for 5-10 years, concentrating especially on learning to work with draft animals. A lot more of us are going to be farmers within the next 50 years, so we might as well get good at it without needing all the "purchased inputs" of industrial agriculture.

Schools and "education" as we know them now are going to be totally useless for what's coming. Even today, academically "trained" workers are dead weight until they've had 5-10 years experience doing whatever they do. And the kinds of jobs they're being "trained" for just won't exist, either at all or at least not in anything like the quantities they do now.

Of course, if you believe that we'll find a way to weasel out of our current dilemmas, then this advice is worthless to you. It wouldn't hurt to consider, though, that if you're wrong, you're gonna end up, at best, as unskilled manual labor in the coming work force, regardless of your GPA or how many letters you can put after your name.

Careers that should be avoided involve manufactured products. Any plant that manufactures products (auto, electronics, etc.) that could be duplicated in Asia will most likely close down.

Growth industries may include:

Licensed electricians - will likely be in big demand because many ordinances require solar PV to be installed by a licensed electrician.

Offshore oil rig workers.

Farm workers for the biofuel industry.

Solar CSP and wind generator construction and maintenance.

Police/Social Workers/Prison Guards - will likely be in big demand as the west continues to lose manufacturing jobs, resulting in increased unemployment and crime.

As an adjunct to this, never underestimate the importance of good communication and social skills and a pleasant disposition (technical competency will only take you so far). Be responsible, reliable, courteous and respectful, and make every impression count -- remember, you'll be judged not just by what you know, but also how well you interact with others.

Cheers,
Paul

Timing is everything. The "right" career choice will be wrong if your timing is as little as five years too early or too late. People can't time the stock market, I don't think many will get career timing right either, too many variables. Be flexible.

I think math and writing skills will come in handy.
Right now, calculators do the math, computers do much of the writing, direction-finding, communicating, designing, planning, etc etc etc.
While I think we will have electricity for a long time, it may become much more expensive, or sporadic in certain areas.
Someone is going to have to know how to add numbers without a calculator and write letters without a spellchecker, work with a slide rule, use geometric instruments to do construction, maps and star charts to navigate, etc etc.
Imagine having to actually manually add up a bill, take the cash, and count out change instead of swiping plastic ?
Plenty of room for meaningful and useful education.
Whatever trade/profession/job you have now, imagine doing it without power. If that's impossible, better retool. If there's a manual way to do it, time to get up to speed...

Medium/Long term...

Jobs that make things, fix things, build things, grow things, or raise animals...
Jobs that keep people or animals healthy...
Jobs that teach people how to do the above....

Short term...

Beats me. Personally, I've been looking for a while without much luck.

I'm tempted to say that you should just ask the question..."What are the most important things/services/industries we (people) need going forward?" Then, given the empirical evidence coming from our "leaders" for the last 30 years or so, go in the opposite direction. ;-) I wish I was completely joking, but...

Seriously, regardless of whether we can build out renewables fast enough to offset resource depletion (for the record, I think not), it's still a pretty safe bet that we will try. So, renewable energy jobs of all types are probably good short/medium term bets. The government appears fully committed to throwing borrowed money at infrastructure, so infrastructure design/construction/maintenance jobs are probably high-demand jobs in the short term (at least until other countries stop lending us money). Somebody above mentioned undertaker. Include with that all jobs related to an aging (and eventually passing) boomer generation... health care, hospice care, elderly housing, etc. A couple of years ago, it would have included retirement services ... maybe not so much anymore.

Others?

Brian

Judging from the news these days, there's never been a better time to become a pirate sailing any of the seven seas. Times haven't been this good for pirates in over 150 years. Ironic no, that in these days of satellite surveillance and GPS networks that business is so good? Looks like conditions will only improve for them until the end of global trade.

How about the field of emergency management and disaster planning? Between the end of the Cold War & 9-11/Hurricane Katrina/SARS a gap in preparedness opened up in many Western Nations. Formal education for this field is starting to appear at community college and university level.

http://www.yorku.ca/akevents/academic/SAS/EM/index.html

Other than that, I dunno. Fixing stuff for sure esp bikes, home repair, anything electro mechanical that can be coaxed along with minor/innovative repairs. Otherwise, we're already seeing the future economy's employment prospects right now: telemarketing, security guard, cleaning professions, car detailer, personal care worker, Blackwater trigger man.

This brings to mind my personal nervousness about the strict work-ethic indoctrination particularly prominent in American culture. Please be aware it is possible to live a non-materialistic frugal lifestyle and so not _need_ to work (or at least, not work so much - this is particularly true in the childfree lifestyle). We live in the richest period in history, it is not strictly necessary to work hard all your life, the 'work' as such has already been done in a sense.

My first instinct was to say: none, no jobs. My second thought would be: be prepared to create your own work in cooperation with other people, i.e. it might not be just a matter of getting employment. Again, I think that we will have to start thinking outside the box in order to survive. Return to the soil, return to manual labor, restore community, localize, etc.

The people in the tent cities springing up around the country are but the first wave (actually not, but before they were marginalized), and will be joined by millions more. The endless millions of disappearing jobs that have no connection to the physical world are going, going, going. There needs to be an alternative economy, one outside the global market economy, where people can rebuild their own lives in an alternative community that will let them survive.

Won't happen without a major struggle, because TPTB would rather see people rot than allow them to escape the market economy, rot while waiting for it to revive.

There are many excellent comments above. "Farmer" and "healer" are two obvious possible occupations. Language abilities and ability to manage small groups of people will also always be useful

I'd like to suggest information technology, what in the old days we called "computer programming." The ability to fix computers, find spare parts, read COBOL, and deal with old technology, would all be helpful skills. Closely related to this is the occupation of "librarian" which, actually, is sort of a pre-computer type of information technology specialist.

There are some "crash" scenarios in which the grid fails, government collapses, and everybody heads back to the farm, a la Kunstler. So it's possible that computers won't matter, at all.

But my suspicion is that as we sacrifice first this and then that convenience of industrial civilization, that we will try to hold on to those parts that we really, really don't want to part with. Washing machines, contraceptives, ability to manufacture simple medicines, that sort of thing. And among these, computers will be found to be really, really helpful. So much so, that we may get rid of Twinkies, cars, and TV entertainment, but keep computers, just because the information they could convey and preserve would be so vast. How different would the history of the world have been if the library in ancient Alexandria could have been easily copied and preserved? And how different will the post-peak world be if everyone can quickly find out how to deal with plant diseases, or manufacture simple medicines?

Obviously there would be a continuum of scenarios in which computers would continue to exist. In some, they would be the property of a very small elite, and the internet wouldn't really exist except perhaps in an archived form. In others, computers might be almost as well distributed as they are today, at least in the more developed areas of the world, so that we'd all be farming and riding our bikes to work but would be hanging on to the internet. In between would be scenarios in which just the government, the scientific world, and the relatively prosperous would have them, and would be using them to exchange and store information.

This last is the kind of scenario I'd prepare for. Volunteering for some group like "Denver Tech For All" which repairs discarded PCs and donates them to those in need might be a good way to prepare for this type of world. Just some thoughts.

Keith

I've considered this question as potentially somewhat separate from home preparedness. In other words, what paying job/career will there be continued demand for. Basic skill sets already include carpenter, cabinetmaker, mason, structural engr., geotech engr., gardening. What to add?

Started back in at local tech school last year to pick up BSEE to open options into electricity part of energy sector. Anecdotally, HR contacts at major utilities tell me that their age demographics are terrible; not enough engineers and the average age of existing staff is too closse to retirement. Plenty of advertised open positions even in this economy.

Existing infrastructure is large, with proportional labor needs. Distributed renewable generation adds to spread of opportunities. Maybe do some good at the same time by contributing to renewable buildout.

Sichuan is the Chinese province where farmers hand-pollinate pear trees. I think somewhere in this PBS documentary Silence Of The Bees you'll see the video section I saw on Sichuan and the hand-pollination. It is really amazing, the scale on which this is done.

--Electricity / no electricity
--Water / no running water
--Electric cars / solar cars / trains / walking

3 years ago I built an electric motorcycle.
2 years ago I built an off grid solar system to power the motorcycle.
Last year I built and electric car and expanded the solar system enough to power the car.
Current project is an electric truck.

I think its time to start working on that rain water catching system I been thinking about.

Cheers,
KJD

http://www.evalbum.com/2058
http://www.zevutah.com

I agree with the earlier comment about becoming a non CNC machinist. This is a very wise option.

For those academically inclined, the following disciplines have a future if nothing else than to develop and broaden the human mind, and reaffirm the values and principles that give meaning to our existence:

mathematics
chemistry
physics
biology
botany
zoology
art
literature
history
lifeways of the indigenous people (like native technology)

From a practical standpoint:

organic farming
sewing
food prep and storage
metalworking

I also agree with another previous poster who suggested jobs aren't in any of our futures. It will be about performing useful work.

Fortunately, with that the resume and corporate teamplayer world will disappear.

http://www.unconventionalideas.com

I vote for Sensitive Singer/Songwriter. Eventually a lot of people are going to starve anyway, lets face it. It might be you or some one you know...now wouldn't that final passage be made a lot easier if you just knew a few simple chords or the verses to some timeless favorites?
Also bear in mind that almost all of todays thoughtful observers agree that unemployment will be going up- way up. Now what better way to fill all those idle hours than with the timeless, universal solace of song?
Not to mention that throughout history the guitar has proven itself a reliable accessory to seduction. Enough said. What better way to lure that Alpha Female to your stocked survivalist bachelor pad than the combination of music, poetry and attitude?
I mean, why not? Lets face it, the human condition is in some respects immutable. Laughter and tears, anger and joy, love and betrayal. The human appetite for having our stories told with verve and panache will endure to the end.

A long time ago while studying for Landscape Architecture, I thought about the idea of living off my designs. Plantings in the LA feild are done for whatever the Client wants. There are people out there without degrees that call themselves Landscape Designers, these folks were doing a lot of designer gardens for people in one of the bigger cities I lived in back in the early 90's. Long ago I hated the fact that most of my parent's yard was Grass, most of it you can't eat, and though it looks nice, if you are starving you will wish you had planted something else there.

So my jobs of choice would be Handiman, and gardener, with a heavy influence on designing Edible Yards, and systems for storing your produce over long periods of time. The more you know about fixing things the better off you will be.

My handiman skills include but are not limited to, sewing, cooking, food storage and preservation, Woodworking, gardening, drawing.

When I was the only male in Home-ec class in 9th grade, it shocked the girls that I knew how to sew and cook better than they did. My dad designed and made several dresses for my mom, still hand sews repairs in his and her clothes (she'd do it if her hands would work better).

Look around your house and ask yourself how many things could you repair or replace with your own skills and if you can't right now, Learn how to if it is something that you will still need when things go downhill. (No need to repair a light, if there is no electricity to run it) But if you still had power and your lamp breaks, could you fix it?

If something breaks around here, we don't throw it away unless it truly is worthless to try to fix it.

As I state in my bio, designer of Edible Yards growing systems.

charles

Gail, Rob Hopkins from Totnes is on it:

http://transitionculture.org/2009/07/01/what-employment-opportunities-ar...

http://transitionculture.org/2009/01/22/the-200-artisan-skills-required-...

By the time the world has no electricity I think we would all be worrying about other more serious problems, unless of course there is another alternative to electric power. The whole reality about a relatively stable, reasonably predictable future where one can take a decision about the future like "what career I am going to follow?", becomes obsolete. In a brave new world of raw necessity, where everyday needs are equal to ones basic survival, everyday actions and planning take on a direct, less speculative approach.

The "no electricity" option is simply nonsense within the lifetime of a new born infant today, absent complete and total social collapse.

"Limited and sporadic" electricity within a limited grid is possible; but that is quite different from "no electricity".

Kunslter missed a a major point in his novel about upstate New York in the future, "World Made by Hand". Niagara Falls will still be generating large amounts of electricity 80 years from now. Not enough today for BAU, but equal to more than a nuclear power plant.

Proof ? North Korea and Albania (during their 50+ years of isolation) kept their hydroelectric plants going. Well maintained plants are rebuilt about every 50 years; but they can go for a century.

New York recently finished a major rebuild of their Niagara power plant (16 identical generators, so some can be scrapped to keep others going). Ontario is in the midst of an upgrade of their Niagara plant.

Many other hydroelectric plants scattered around.

One fantasy is local governments issue a local currency, good for 1 kWh each, backed by the local hydroelectric power plant, to pay for local gov't functions (no taxes needed). A policeman might be paid 270 kWh/week as his sole pay. He uses 26 kWh for lights and an efficient refrigerator (an unaffordable luxury for many) and uses the rest to buy food, pay rent, etc. A limited grid (rural electrification fades away).

One way of rationing a scarce resource. But NOT "no electricity".

Alan

With the ageing population health care and elderly care will be growth industries. There will probably be labor shortages in many fields when the boomers retire.

The ageing population is a more immediate threat than shortages of energy, yet is not as widely discussed, except the health care expense aspect.

Societal collapse is hardest on the elderly, as in the former USSR where the bulk of the population decline was in late middle aged to elderly men.

Let's see, all the manufacturing jobs are going to China, and all the office jobs are going to India, so that leaves:

Hamburger flipper at MacDonalds!

But more seriously, it's becoming one big happy planet out there. I was out sailing this summer on the coast of British Columbia, and the guy living on the next boat was developing a video-on-demand system for the Chinese market. He had a satellite dish up on one of the piers and a high-speed data link to Beijing. One of my partners in the boat is developing an educational software system for a company based in India. One of my nephews with a B.Eng. is working in Switzerland, designing oil production facilities in Nigeria, but a big Chinese oil company just made a takeover bid for his company, and he's wondering if he can learn Mandarin in 45 days. Another nephew with a B.Comm. is evaluating markets for Canadian uranium in, you guessed it, China and India.

I could go on and on, talking about companies from supposedly undeveloped countries doing things that involve a lot of brains and not much manual work, but I think the bottom line for educational choices is to get as much science and math as you can, and stay flexible. You never know what you'll be doing or who you'll be working for - but it will probably involve science and math. The alternative is flipping burgers at MacDonalds.

As to transportation costs getting too expensive, let me point out that a diesel/electric freight train gets 436 ton-miles per gallon, and an ocean freighter gets considerably better. It's the trucks and cars that are going to get hammered by high fuel prices. Electric trains don't necessarily use any fossil fuels at all. The Calgary light Rail Transit system is powered 100% by wind generators, and when oil hit $147/barrel, it didn't make much difference to their costs. They're now up to 300,000 passengers a day in a city of 1 million, and they claim their operating costs are about 29 cents per passenger.

In addition to buying up the world's energy resources, the Chinese and Indians are converting their railroads to all-electric, and upgrading their rail lines so that they can run double-stacked shipping containers under 25 kV power lines. What is the U.S. doing? Cash for clunkers? I think someone didn't get the big picture.

No one mentioned that classic job, around for hundreds of years....professional cook (or chef or food preparation person).
People have to eat and as long as someone has money or something valuable, they will pay for a lunch or dinner, no matter how simple.
I know someone is his mid 20s who travels from city to city (usually where there are resorts) and works cooking in hotels and restaurants. He loves cooking and knows a lot about it. He`s always employed and he does follow good economies....he no longer bothers with the US and now works in Oslo.

He will never be out of a job, I think.

I expect that automation and computerization will continue eating away at jobs. If something can be done by a machine it will be done by a machine, because it's cheaper. In a competetive capitalist economic system, cheaper always wins.

A sobering good news / bad news observation that struck me recently:

The good news is that the trend toward outsourcing jobs to places where labor costs are lower is losing steam and will soon dry up. Manufacturing operations will slowly be returning to locations closer to where the manufactured goods are consumed.

The bad news is the reason behind the good news: labor costs are becoming irrelevant, because there's so little human labor left in manufacturing. Even the clerical and technical support jobs that cheap communications have allowed to move to overseas call centers are at risk. Software for speaker-independent voice recognition is improving, and there are some marginally functional (compared to past abominations) IVRU systems for order processing. (IVRU = interactive voice response unit. We hate them, but they continue to proliferate, because they reduce costs for the businesses that use them.)

We seem to be moving quickly toward a new class society with stock owners, executives, and crime bosses at the top, supported by a thin "middle class" of technicians and soldiers (in one form or another), floating atop a sea of petty criminals and dole recipients.

The growth careers for this bleak future: thief, fence, pimp, prostitute, drug dealer, drug mule, police, prison guards, security guards, undercover agent / informer, soldier / gang member, enforcer / hit man, ..

Oh, and lawyers / fixers.

Can't we please get off this path?? Note that it is being driven by the interaction of technology and our economic system, not by peak oil and energy issues.

Should we be preparing for this change now? What career choices do you see as reasonable ones? What educational choices should people be making now?

Interesting questions you brought up Gail! Yes, changes are ahead and I think we or at least our next generation should get prepared for that. In the medium term things might derail quite substantially and a number of skills adequate for that were mentioned in earlier posts. In the long run, however, we need new mind sets and I'd like to share some thoughts on that:

Our current skills (from school curricula etc.) might be a major reason for many of the visible difficulties we are in or heading to. The homo faber (Max Frisch) might be outdated and we are in need for a replacement i.e. those skills which brought us into the current situation might not be those which can divert us towards a sustainable ('embedded-in-Gaia') society. A major deficit I can detect today is a lack of ethics and virtue. The standard approach to tackle many/most of the burning issues are from the toolboxes of economics and/or natural science. I don't think they will trigger the needed paradigm shifts - those will mostly depend on our Haltung (unfortunately such an attitude has little value in our society). Thus I would advocate for more philosophers and a general eduction in philosophy.

Our current industrial society is one amongst many humankind has developed so far. I guess it has in the average not sheltered the happiest people and not supported the most meaningful lives, though it has definitely allowed to grow the largest population ever. If sustainability counts we still have societies on this planet, such as the San in Southern Africa, who maintained a steady state for at least 10-20'000 years to be consulted (unfortunately such an incredible achievement has no value in our society). Thus I would advocate for more ethnologists and a general eduction in ethnology

It took me quite a while to recognize the incredible knowhow stored in the web of life and the subtle mechanism to develop it (thx Darwin, Watson/Crick, ... to allow me appreciating this beauty). Each wiped out genome has probably more value than all human patents together (although current economy allocates no value for it at all). The biosphere is a humbling ensemble and dwarfs the human built technosphere in sophistication and longevity. I doubt that we can maintain a manageable technosphere with its current industrial metabolism considering rapidly shrinking fossil energy supplies. But even a replacement with abundant renewable energy resources and keeping the rest as a BAU seems neither sustainable nor smart. I believe technologies need to become inherently bio-compatible, even able to completely blending in the biosphere. Thus I would advocate for more biomimetic engineers and a general eduction in bionics.

From a global systems perspective the solutions found and tested by the biosphere over the last 3 billion years are very hard to be beaten. Thus I wonder if we shouldn't refrain to use certain technologies which life on this planet has not opted for. Free electrons (electricity) or free molecular hydrogen as an energy carrier for instance. Current PV technology wouldn't be an option then and the hydrogen economy would not store H2 in metal hydrides nor compressed or cooled in vessels; also not as NH3 but as old fashioned hydrocarbons...

rolf_w

Honestly, if it gets so bad that electricity is rare and we are using draft animals again, I would vote for:

Shaman and/or drug grower.

No joke. We will need spiritual people to connect us back to nature, read signs and do spiritual healings. If things really collapse like many feel, I foresee mass defections from organized religion. We will all need inner vision and hope. I would predict widespread use of inexpensive, locally produced drugs too. Alcohol can wreck havoc on depressed people so the more logical drugs to turn to would be enthogens (peyote & mushrooms) and simple weed. Production of these along with locally grown tobacco should be profitable and sustainable.

Electric cars / solar cars / trains / walking

I think there is something missing from this list of possibilities. I don't know why people assume it will be cars or public transit or walking. Bicycles do not require exotic materials or additional energy once constructed.

Plenty of persons drill down into the oxymoronic, with emphasis on the second part of that word, attributes of "sustainability". We can also add: Why did this word pop out of the undergrowth, not so long after oil started getting expensive again, after the long Cheap Oil holiday from reality that more or less coincided with the Reagan-Thatcher years ?

Jumping forward, we now have a permant media campaign to save toothwashing water and build zero energy houses, exactly like in the 1974-1979 period, before President Reagan triumphally ordered Jimmy Carter's solar collector to ripped off the roofs of the White House. Plus ca change !

Something that hasnt changed is a lot more down to the barrel. Usine May 2009 Oilwatch data OECD average demand was around 44 Mbd. For the OECD's population of about 1180 millions thats an annual rate of 13.57 barrels per capita.

In 2007 it was 14.3 bbbl per capita. So we can say "things are moving" !

Teaching.
People consistently reproduce and SOME degree of education is required and enough people don't have the time to home school that this job will be around for the foreseeable future.
What interests me is how the subjects and emphasis will change.

I'm an engineer (civil/environmental). I see a strong need for engineers in the future, but there will be a shift back from high technology and centralized, energy intensive projects and off-the-shelf spec-d equipment to simpler, local solutions and original thinking. Engineers may need to adapt to different needs and priorities in the future.

The failure to maintain the electrical grid is talked a lot about. I wonder if this is a good thing in the long run because as the grid slowly decays it will force us to learn to use less and less energy. Using less, not just alternate forms, I see as the only long term solution.
Tom

I suspect that it will be the rare person who enters a career at the end of their school days and sticks with it their entire working life. The number of people retiring now who have worked their whole lives in the same career are already starting to become exceptional, so this is not a new trend, just an accelerating one. Given the turmoil we are likely to see, the best bet is to assume that you are going to have to make a number of career changes over the course of one's life. Increasing numbers of people may have to have two or three different lines (or sidelines) of work going in order to make ends meet. A broad liberal arts education with lots of scientific and technical emphasis, and a lot of practical skills and know-how, should serve most people very well.

If we're talking long term..., very long term.., like 2,000 years from now..., then pick up pottery or horticulture. The world wont look much different 2,000 years from now then it did 2,000 years ago, except there will be remnants of a once great civilization.

On the other hand..., if we're talking what I should do in my lifetime (considering I'm barely middle aged now)..., I'd say..., Electricity may be nice. I don't think Wind or solar will save us, but..., these toys will come in handy. We know how to generate electricity...; the trick will be producing at a decent scale when all hydrocarbons end up in terminal decline.
Electric storage is also a problem that needs to be addressed. Batteries are not good enough. We need to use windmills and solar or whatever to force water uphill, or compress down tunnels or caves to store energy for when the wind doesn't blow or the sun don't shine.

There will be more jobs dealing with light rail. Maybe re-designing cities to be denser. Reverse urban sprawl. There will be a need for more farmers. Etc

When more people are at home during the day and driving anywhere is difficult or prohibitive a horse drawn 'general store' with a formal route [pass each residence maybe once a week] would be a way of making a living. Along the route might be some of the sources of your merchandise, so bartering could occur also. And playing the banjo to announce your arrival couldn't hurt.

In my childhood there were regular and irregular such sales wagons. Sometimes it was even 'gypsies' selling handmade furniture or other goods. Knife sharpeners would come by once or twice a year.

Nomadic lifestyles will complement the rooted in place ones. Of course the old opinions about gypsies tramps and thieves will no doubt come to the fore again, but not everyone gets to be a landowner or have an elite job.

The assumption that our grandchildren will live in a world where a good education [higher degrees] is the route to middle class living is a false hope. It will be a more interesting world when the bright ones make their own niches by following their true interests and talents than getting educations that suit them to fit the niches already in place in our dying civilization.

Vicky

If I were young again but knew what I know now (ah, that ancient plaint!), the three things that I would be learning right now would be: Music, preferably as an orchestral conductor, shipwrighting and blacksmithing.

The two handcrafts will be back in demand with a bang much sooner than many of us believe, I believe -- when you think gestaltically and intuitively about ALL the Synergising Global Crises now menacing us.

And of course the third matter will be perennial as long as humans are humans:

"If of all your worldly goods you were bereft,
And of your store, two loaves alone were left,
Then sell the one, and with the dole
Buy hyacinths, to feed your soul."

I suppose on Easter Island the job of boatmaking seemed to always be a good path, the assured way to lifetime success. Or statute carving was probably another assured way to make a living. No doubt just before the great depression many folks were quite sure that they could never end up crossing the country with all their possessions in their car hoping to find work picking apples in California.

The human brain rebels at the thought that tomorrow will be significantly different from today. Yet many now living in tent cities NEVER imagined that that would ever happen to them. When the unemployment starts running out more people will be in tents and winter is coming. Regardless of the energy question, the economic collapse has only just begun. Google Option Arms and Alt A's and commercial real estate collapse, and bank foreclosures.

Tentmaking as one person noted may well be a good way to go as far as an occupation. Perhaps those who do not have a secure homesite with no major liabilities should get a really good tent now, just in case. Of course even mortgage free homes can be lost due to real estate taxes and as counties begin to face insolvency no doubt those taxes will rise.

Ah here is another occupation, bed and breakfast, not the high class elite type, just the old fashioned rent a room and provide a meal type. Worked to help lots of people keep their homes in the past and helped lots of people stay out of the homeless camps.

Admit it, folks. Your religion tells you the world is coming to an end soon, so you connect the dots from higher oil prices to this fantasy of yours. Last time it was Y2K, and before that Israel vs Palestine, and before that the Soviet Union, and before that something else. But the world never comes to an end. Yet you still follow your religious leaders. Oh, they just got the timing wrong. It'll be next year for sure. What a joke!

You admit societies with 5x the population do just fine on 90% less energy, yet America is sure to starve and become a Mel Gibson apocalypse movie. What a joke, people!

You know economic downturns happen every few years. But this one is different. This one is the END OF THE WORLD. Mass starvation. Horses and buggies. Someone actually said that was too advanced, we would have to eat the horse, lol. War lords for gosh sakes! What a joke.

You have some facts and figures about energy supply and cost balances. And you connect the dots to what? Higher prices? No. Conservation? No. Frugality? No. It must be nothing short of the end of the world for you.

Last year the banks were all going to close, and it was going to be mass starvation and THE END OF THE WORLD! Remember? You all wrote that and swallowed it hook, line and sinker. But it didn't happen, so you have to find something else to fit your preconceived fantasy.

I pity the newspaper that would print such childishness. Any that do are just pandering to your delusions.

You can change. You can climb out of your bunkers and join the real world. It's not so scary. In fact, it's beautiful. But you have to sacrifice and give up one comfort. You have to give up your blind devotion to religion.