What should we be teaching our children?

If the world will be changing, what should we be saying to our children about it?

Should the peak oil story be taught in schools?

Great question, Gail

I am wrestling with that question right now with my own school board.
There are many aspects to the relevance of PO to our public schools systems.
Board admin certainly needs to be well aware, since they are responsible for long-term planning of all aspects, including school location, design, energy efficiency, etc.
They are also responsible for busing and teacher placement.

On the curriculum front (which is the focus of your question), we need to start with senior high and work down, but not too far down.
I'm an elementary teacher (Grade 7/8, 11-14 yr olds) and I was recently asked to present to Grade 8 kids as part of an enrichment activity.
I declined.

Until parents and Board administration are themselves well aware of PO, any teacher is asking for trouble by presenting the PO 'theory' to students.
That risk increases inversely to the age of the students, I would think.
This is a dark and complex issue, and younger children should not be burdened with it until it's absolutely necessary.

Teachers should work within their federation/professional association first, then with Board admin, then parents, and last in directing PO curriculum to students, starting in the senior grades.

Other views are welcome....

- Rick in Ontario

You are right about the age-sensitivity of the issue. High school is probably plenty soon enough...before they are old enough for a driver's license!

However, concerning the younger ones, I think it was Queensryche who mentioned something about "dream control" in one of their bigger hits. The "what about the children" bunch will scream, but I think a certain amount of dream control will help avert a great deal of bitterness for our young ones when they grow up. No more bs about being an astronaut...or anything else that requires a large amount of money/fossil fuels.

As for "working within the system" to bring change...that's exactly why nothing will change:( Few things are harder to move than the entrenched education interests.

"dream control"

Exactly, completely and perfectly wrong. Children and young people get all the "dream control" any human can stand without wanting to go home and kill themselves. Their dreams are their salvation. Let them dream, and reality will adjust their dreams for them.

RC

Exactly.

"Imagination is more important than Knowledge" -Einstein

Dream Control.. yeesh!

asking for trouble by presenting the PO 'theory' to students

The best of intentions can lead to the greatest of harms. I do see your point.

However, while working within the chain of command does need to happen I think a total PO knowledge transfer blackout is not an optimal approach.

I would suggest that we do need to be preparing even the youngest of our students with the mindset tools to be able to adapt to the approaching changes that PO will force upon us. Learning how to maintain a healthy self-image without relying on the ego blow our energy rich and materialist society depends on, must happen.

This is a dark and complex issue, and younger children should not be burdened with it until it's absolutely necessary

I feel that it invokes a greater burden to mislead and fail to properly prepare. PO is not the issue anyway; it only amplifies the underling dysfunction. The dysfunction is our dark and destructive mindset memes. PO is forcing us to address this darkness.

Teach the possible goodness that is possible in their, our future. Teach that our self-esteem comes from self-compassion not from a grandiose sense of self. Teach the children that we live within the framework of life and cannot exist outside it.

Hi ryeguy,

The dysfunction is our dark and destructive mindset memes

Very much agree. Also think that Dawkins is right that these memes are programmed into children at about the same time they are learning the basics of their native language.

It would seem that counteracting these destructive memes should start as soon as possible. However, I don't think that directly addressing PO/GW/etc is the right approach - these appear to me to be conclusions. I suspect it would be better to focus on teaching real science, math and critical thinking - I believe that students will come to the conclusion that BAU is unsustainable and new paradigms for human life are urgently needed.

However, I find it very hard to imagine many school districts allowing truly honest educational practices as I would define them: most basic tenets about our species and our relationship to the natural world would be open for examination. Supernatural beliefs, where many of our most destructive memes originate, I suspect would suffer serious credibility issues. Parents with pitchforks come to mind.

hard to imagine

It is quite the challenge to imagine people’s mindset memes changing. I have no illusions about how seemingly unlikely this is. Nevertheless, I see no other way.

focus on teaching real science and critical thinking

True critical thinking is not possible if before that students are not taught how the cranial organ operates.

Hi Dave,

Teaching "real science, math , and critial thinking" sounds really good and I agree in principle that it needs to be and should be done.

But after thinking long and hard about this subject, I have concluded that most people simply are not intellectually predisposed in such a way as to be able to think independently.

It's not that they can't be taught the rules of the game, and the strategies , in a manner of speaking;the brighter kids at least can learn HOW to think in scientific terms.It's just that they WON'T think independently because they don't WANT TO.

We would rather be PART OF the crowd than APART from it.Conformity is for most people a small price gladly paid for acceptance.

Most of us are apparently born programmed to be followers rather than leaders.

The ability to think independently and critically seems to be rare indeed, even among brilliant people with fine educations, except occasionally within the narrow confines of the person's professional specialty.

I can count on the fingers of one hand, with a couple of fingers left over, all the people I have ever met who always fit thier personal models of reality to impartially observed facts rather than (at least part of the time)twisting and cherry picking the facts to suit thier personal prejudices and preferences.

One of them is an old and highly respected member of this forum;another was once my best friend but he is long since dead.The third is mentally unbalanced in such a way that his mind functions like a well oiled and very powerful machine, but he simply doesn't VALUE anything, other than his own comfort and the companionship of a couple of friends;he's not mean or vindictive or dangerous in any way;he simply looks at the rest of humanity the way a biologist might look at an ant colony, observing how and why it functions with no thought given to concepts such as right, wrong, morality, or values.

Unfortunately I have never had an opportunity to get to know this man well.

they WON'T think independently because they don't WANT TO

I suspect that they/(we) don't have much of a choice in that department.

It's not a matter of "want" but rather the outcome of two evolutionary pressures (biological evolution and cultural evolution).

1) Millions of years ago, our ancestors were a school of fish that by accidental mutation, crawled onto land and began to run as herds. Our very biology and genetic evolution predisposes us to be creatures of the herd mentality.

2) At the same time, the cultures that we hand down (via education) from generation to generation have evolved to ones that favor those who go along to get along rather than favoring the radicals who wish to rock the boat. If Johnny challenges the "economics" professor, he gets a D- in place of an A+. And as a result, he doesn't get a pass into Harvard business(-as-usual) school. That's form of cultu-natural selection. It was never a matter of "free" choice. All choices have costs.

Step Back,

Very well said!

That's funny. I thought what you said above was fairly thought provoking, but what Step Back wrote was kind of silly. Primates are creatures with a herd mentality? On what planet was that? We're creatures that learned that there is safety in numbers, and creatures that try to emulate successful examples. Is "monkey see, monkey do" really a herd behavior? I've never seen an antelope pick up a tool, myself.

And "I suspect that they/(we) don't have much of a choice in that department." sounds kind of optimistic to me. I expect most people will continue to not want to think independently, and will continue to not think independently. They'll just latch onto another successful-looking/sounding fellow primate and continue to not think for themselves. There's safety in numbers, after all.

"Conformity is for most people a small price gladly paid for acceptance." - yes, now *that* is a profound statement. Sounds like something Machiavelli wrote.

I've never seen an antelope pick up a tool

There is a family/flock of crows (murder of crows?) residing in front if my house.

Everyday I see these "bird brains" using a "tool" and learning from (copying) each other.

The tool is a light pole they have learned to push their tree nut off from so it cracks on the sidewalk below. Clearly they do not demonstrate understanding of Newton's law of gravity. But they do seem to have developed an understanding that the process is repeatedly successful if they do it just so (step #1=fly to the top of the pole, #2=place your nut on the edge, #3=push it off the top with your beak, #4=fly down to see if (the nut) it cracked, and #5=if not, repeat #1-#5.)

Dropping and cracking, both nuts and shellfish, is a pretty common bird activity, I have to say.. but Crows and Esp. Ravens are considered to be some of the smartest birds. If I remember Michael Pollan's research right, there is a common theme of smarts shared by many omnivores and scavengers who have had to develop strategies and flexible thinking in order to simply identify safe grub.. among other challenges.

As for humans, we are frequently caught between our individual and our collective strengths (and their counterpointish vulnerabilities) .. just the fact that we oscillate between them and some of our members can compare the two is a great advantage for our species. (Blessed are the Rebels! "He's so contrary, if I'd heard he'da drowned, I'd search for the body upstream!")

"There's no safety in numbers, or in anything else.." Moral from a Thurber Story, I think.

a pretty common bird activity

We humans are so certain of our "exceptionalism" in the brain department that we regularly discount evidence of intelligence amongst almost all other creatures on this Earth (yeast excluded).

If you have a pet cat or dog, you know from everyday interactions that they have a certain degree of intelligence. They plot and they plan how to get that next doggie-treat or belly rub or whatever. They make it very obvious that they consider themselves to be part of the family dog pack or cat pride.

They have herding and cooperation instincts inbred into them just as we do, all through the forces of evolution.

The feeling of "exceptionalism" also seems to be inbred as a consequence of evolution. After all, a mutation that feels itself to not be "special" may not try as hard to survive. Our species (what's left of us) tries very hard to survive and to continue our nonnegotiable way of life. We have no "reason" for it and yet we do it.

By 'Common', I didn't mean 'Unintelligent'.. I've just seen that a lot of birds do this. There are also birds that use sticks with honey to fish bees or termites (??) out of trees, and of course nestbuilding is a great use of a range of implements, materials and engineering. But is it original or mimicked, and when is the difference important?

It just sounded like you thought the Crows invented a new and really unusual trick or something.

Intelligence is a touchy word, though. Where do you place common sense, or complex training (spiderwebs ..instinct?), as opposed to original tool creation, which it seems some animals do and others don't? There's also 'social intelligence' and communication abilities, anticipation and memory, which might occur separately from incidence of Tool Manipulation, etc..

.. my shorthand for intelligence for a few years (assuredly a small slice of the issue) is the polar opposite of 'Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results..' .. where I've suggested that 'Intelligence is the ability to imagine then test different approaches to achieve improved results' ..or something like that. I keep rewriting it to make it better, and sometimes it works(!!)

Bob

'Intelligence is the ability to imagine then test different approaches to achieve improved results'

Then by that definition, almost no average human being has "Intelligence".

I think what you are describing might be better pigeon holed in the category of intentional or purposeful creativity (as opposed to accidental creativity).

Also known as "invention".

No, not really. But Pigeon-hole all you like, of course.

"If Mom said no, maybe Dad will say yes.. Hmm, dad also said no, maybe I should ask him a different way.."

It's learning behavior, and it's constantly trying alternatives and testing the results, and even very 'below-average' humans do it all the time. One of the great impediments to it is Twain's 'What they know for sure that just ain't so..'

Bird intelligence

I've seen several times that the corvid family/corvidae are the most intelligent birds.
Apparently there are 41 corvids but the four that are common in North America are crows, ravens, magpies and blue jays... all of them vocal, opportunistic and sneaky.

Farmers in eastern Ontario have recently had a significant problem with crows and ravens pecking out the eyeballs of newborn lambs and calves... a major financial loss within the first few minutes of the lifetime of an animal that could have been worth hundreds of dollars.
It seems that this behaviour is learned.

Kids should be taught about sneaky birds and sneaky people. Sea Gulls have always used the rocks to open their quahogs (clam) but they weren't smart enough to get by me stealing their quahogs. Sneaky, yes, but perfectly legal, unfortunately.

pecking out the eyeballs of [defenseless] lambs ... It seems that this behaviour is learned

Learned from whom? Wall Street tycoons?

We're creatures that learned that there is safety in numbers

Does a school of fish "learn" to swim as such?
What about a gaggle of geese?
A pod of killer whales?

It is evolution that forces most omnivoric creatures to gang together.

You couldn't live totally alone even if you "chose" to. You would go mad with "loneliness".

Yes, well said.

My thoughts, at least at the moment, is that this evolved when the game-plan required maintaining/increasing population numbers as the most important species survival necessity.

This has changed. The most important necessity is now stabilizing/reducing our population numbers.

The game rules have changed and to survive we must adapt.

However, I find it very hard to imagine many school districts allowing truly honest educational practices

I remember (and still have a printed copy of) Dr R Daniel Allen's post "What Lower Consumption Means" which he presented to high school students
(www.campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5937) so, it can be done!

We should wait until the kids are in high school, so that the assumptions of endless growth, assured information economy jobs and the ability to pay back $200k or more in college tuition are very ingrained. That way when when we describe the problem, the kids will be in such denial regarding the nature of their world that they will shrug it off, and be blindsided with catastrophic debt, debtors prison, unemployment because they got an MBA, and a big house they can't sell or move away from. They will think that they can do without nature, and continue to deny environmental degradation and exhaust ecosystem services, because nature is unnecessary when you have 100 fossil fuel slaves to your name.

Freshmen in college do not know what happens when you flick the light switch on the wall or where the power comes from, and they believe that an art history major from Yale requiring $200K in debt can be repaid with a guaranteed good job in the future. We are setting our kids up for failure because of the inherent assumptions in our system. We are leading them like sheep to the slaughter. At this point conformity of thought and fear of stepping out of line with the status quo is a deadly mistake.

I am listening to a presentation on energy from ACEP at UAF as I type this. The speaker suggests we might have 100 years of energy left--that we don't know how long it will last. She also shows a slide that the massive amounts of "available" energy from solar and other renewables, when the reality is that you can just barely light 1 lightbulb from a solar panel in Fairbanks in December. This type of education is not helpful. This is what happens when you have collected a pile of facts without the underlying concepts, and put them together to get something other than the truth. Emphasizing dates and amounts and curves which are facts that are arguable and subject to rapid change in a complex system is not helpful, and understanding complex systems requires some synthesis (check out Bloom's taxonomy for cognitive leveling). What we need is understanding about flow-based and stock-based energy sources for our society and how the different types of energy flow through and are used by the system. Once people understand the underlying concepts, the "facts" are no longer necessary.

Yes, let us not confuse or scare the kiddos with facts.

That wouldn't be fair...wait till at least high school, or never.

We couldn't be caught dead offering competing ideas to the continuous blitz of BAU spewed forth by TV, newspapers, magazines, the internet, political ads, etc.

Buy! Like a Rock! One-up your snotty friend by buying a much better smart phone than her! (actual commercial now playing on AM radio), ...

An interesting point X made in today's Drumbeat:

If it were not for the internet, how many could deduce Peak Oil from direct experience on their own?

Yes, peak oil should be taught. Having personal experience of the devastation and despair that occurs when one is suckered by their happy-happy-joy-joy version of the future and then it turns out to be totally bogus, kids are entitled to a realistic vision of what the future holds, not shiny-happy-people pipe dreams.

My son is 22. He doesn't get it yet. Still thinks going to college is the magic panacea. I am not looking forward to his pain. But I will be here for him when the day comes.

Should the peak oil story be taught in schools?

Many schools have a hard time teaching evolution without parents going ape. Peak oil? AGW!? Some school systems can't even pay for their revisionist history text books.

Peak oil is a home schooling thing.

"Peak oil is a home schooling thing."

On March 2009, Nate Hagens posted a letter he wrote to a seven-year old boy
in order to explain to him some of the implications of oil depletion.

WHAT DO WE TELL OUR CHILDREN ?

http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5150

I would make at least one course on energy and the environment a requirement, the earlier the better. We first started learning some very basic science in 4th grade.

A strong education in math, science, history, and literacy is my basic toolkit for kids being able to deal with whatever the future brings their way. Without these tools, they won't be able to wrap their heads around more complex issues. They'll revert to faith and adopt the meme of whoever tells them the best, most comforting stories. A solid, classical education is the foundation of grasping reality.

Witness the "dumbing down" of Americans and their reliance on faith based solutions.

well said

I teach a planning course for grade 10...in BC. I teach a unit on PO due to a few facts. Global warming is widely accepted and green initiatives are almost cliches, yet we are missing the greatest change prospect to face humans from when?

On Vancouver Island we continually teach to prepare for the big one (subduction zone quake) and our schools are being earthquake proofed if they are not already refitted or built to specs.

Anyway, Planning is a course to prepare students for a work life and compels students to plan for graduation. I take it very seriously. They have to complete it in order to graduate.

I feel it is a moral imperative to share the knowledge of PO in a way that also continually emphasizes that life is change, itself. I use the example of my 90 year old mom who has gone from Depression poor poor poor, to where we are today. If we park our cars and live closer to work, well, who is going to shoot me for that? I also ask students to share this with their parents at home and urge discussion and contact from home to school. They have my home number and email, etc.

I had one lovely girl, who is planning for a career in law, ask if we could get the oil back? and I suddenly realized that they had no idea of the first and second law....so we had to back track a bit and explain about the sun's stored energy in whatever form it might take and the conditions of how oil is formed. (Thank you TOD for the facts at my disposal). We are now watching short clips of a drama....I believe it is called 'when the oil runs out'.

We will also be watching 'Food inc' when we study health and Nutrition in November. We will also be doing emergency first aid.

My kids are grown...one is in a career of electrical and electronics...energy if you will. My other teaches elementary and music. They know about PO and are keeping consumptions modest and debt down.

I love these kids (at school) and want to carefully give them some facts they can use when the shtf, and I also disseminate articles and worksheets to my colleagues. I have future engineering students who come to me and talk after class, and I always tell them we need people like you to invent new ways to travel and improve our grid, homes, and lives. They leave the room with purpose and a charged up being. No slumped shoulders is the goal for all.

We also have a strong unit on debt and economics, and we compare the US system to Canada's, and have a discussion on whether to rent, buy, pay off, or re-fi. It is all so inter-related.

That is the morning. At noon I get in my Yaris and drive 5 miles to another school and teach metal work, including traditional blacksmithing. The kids are eating it up. We use lathes and weld, and also blacksmith. I mention this all to let you know that teaching for PO is the right thing to do, and that it can be done without causing problems.

How could I look these young people in the face and keep quiet about it? How could you?

Cheers......Paulo

Bravo, Paulo. Do you have some support from the administration or is this all under the radar?

My guess is that one or two teachers here and there can get away with this but as soon as the conversation catches the attention of the parents with no idea of what's happening, they will say something like "Why are you scaring the kids for just a theory?" (Actual response from one of my sisters.)

Hey ho,

Well, my Principal is off work for medical reasons and I gave him a book to read while he is away, "Why Your World is ..... Smaller, Jeff Rubin. He didn't phone me at home, and the guy filling in for him and the VP are personal friends, so I trade on that a bit. The main thing is that here, in BC, (Ontario too), we have a strong teachers Union that really stands up for kids and curriculum. One of the issues dear to our heart is resisting Govt. interference, and our respective Unions really promote what is called, 'teacher autonomy'. For me the issue is something I would wobble on. (For those who don't know the term wobble, it means walk out which is pretty much kicking the hornet nest in labour relations). Teacher autonomy simply states, 'as long as the learning outcomes are met as prescribed under the mandated curriculum/learning outcomes for grade and subject, how we get there is up to each individual teacher'. This is 180 deg. from California's 'prescribed learning regime.' In this world of control and teacher attacks, it is a continual fight, but it is at the core of our profession. If this is lost, then I would have to quit. Father doesn't always know best, hence the political and religious fights some of our southern colleagues have to endure. If you have to go to the wall, then you have to go to the wall.

Imagine you are a researcher. You get your grant and away you go. Sure, you have to be headed for some kind of mutually agreed upon outcome, but the details of how you make your discoveries will be up to the researcher. Now, there are toady-types and system folks who are on a track into the upper realms who will never rock the boat, but the researcher, who is 'after a scientific truth to better our lives', needs support from admin and peers, or must cowboy on on with what is felt to be right. Smiles help.

In short, we have autonomy, and I have great bosses at the school level. We all want to do the best for our students. If they get some angry phone calls then I will have a command presence meeting in short order, but thanks to all of you who post at TOD and other sites, I have my facts straight and carry big time support. I relish the idea of such a meeting.

I hope this explains the situation.

"My guess is that one or two teachers here and there can get away with this but as soon as the conversation catches the attention of the parents with no idea of what's happening, they will say something like "Why are you scaring the kids for just a theory?" (Actual response from one of my sisters.)"

Aangel, you are probably right. There is a concerted effort to maintain BAU, and the school system is the most conservative, wasteful, and change resistant organization I have ever worked in. The folks who run it have a vested interest in maintaining status-quo, big time, and while they always profess to have the best interests of kids in mind, I always notice they are never in the classroom. (That is a subject for a different forum, though).

Thanks for your reply....Paul

Good on you, Paulo, for your hard work. We need more of this stuff in the US.

My original point was that teaching the under-educated about anything as complex as peak oil may not be "teaching" at all. It's telling.

The things you are doing seem to be along the lines of what I tried to teach my kids. There are ways they can minimise their exposure to unfavorable change, be it natural disasters or man made predicaments. Most importantly perhaps, a well educated individual is less easily led.

BTW, try teaching your Peak Oil message in Texas. It may not be as well recieved.

Paulo, Thanks for that excellent post. Planners do make a difference. My dad was a WWII veteran, and chairman of our town's (Harwich) planning board. He fought the good fight to zone the town the right way and was resented for it. Now Harwich shows some class and value, while other towns took the easy road. They are paying the price, with their cheesy overbuilt look. Dad was a fighter too, but so civilized and polite, and with a good sense of humor. He once called a special town meeting to take a major piece of land for conservation, which was scheduled to be developed with 85 houses. This then formed a core and is now the centerpiece of one of the largest conservation tracts on Cape Cod. He was chair of many committees and the first percolation test in the state of Massachusetts was done under his leadership, now standard for title 5 septics. I could go on, but the point is kids learn by seeing the planning work being done. As a little kid I was a regular town meeting attendee, sitting in the non-voting section. These hard as nails WWII children of the depression are without peer. God bless your mom. I think she gave you much which you are now passing along. Very cool.

Vancouver also may be a region of the world that is considered by the world to be one of our shining stars. Who would be surprised if the proper planning for the world's new working infrastructure came from there? Your students probably have lots of confidence that they may be instrumental in solving some of the worlds biggest issues.

Paulo wrote:
"I have future engineering students who come to me and talk after class, and I always tell them we need people like you to invent new ways to travel and improve our grid, homes, and lives."

Right on. Get those kids fires burning hot. When I was 20 I was a shipyard welder working on the LNG tankers being built by General Dynamics, in Quincy MA. I have a basic understanding of this and that, and I used to love to teach the kids at the Nantucket Marine Lab, and the Elementary School as an assistant to a Ph.D in Biology. I had a few troubled kids under my wing, and also loads of kids with their teachers brought into the Lab to learn about a shellfish hatchery, and fisheries and basic eco-systems. I really think what the kids need ... is what the individual teacher has to teach. Different teachers have ... different gifts. The last thing kids need is up-tight classroom regulators of the truth. There are lots of parents who know this instinctively, and appreciate it. I taught Sunday School, and had a sideline marijuana and tobacco curriculum that was controversial, but the kids were really getting into it. At ten years old the kids haven't written their book of life yet and ... are open. What could be more important? So I do believe in teaching age appropriately, but, not too cautiously. There is an inordinate fear many have in giving kids too much too early, and I think this in a real way is counter productive.

Have a look at the Tripe System Report. It is the "internet of energy". See if your students like it.
www.environmentalfisherman.com

we need people like you to invent

I hope you also teach them to protect themselves by getting a patent or other IP right.

It's funny how engineering schools never teach business and law to their bright and upcoming Dilberts.

I teach a planning course for grade 10...in BC. I teach a unit on PO due to a few facts.....
We also have a strong unit on debt and economics, and we compare the US system to Canada's, and have a discussion on whether to rent, buy, pay off, or re-fi. It is all so inter-related.

... to another school and teach metal work, including traditional blacksmithing. The kids are eating it up. We use lathes and weld, and also blacksmith.

Sounds like a great example of how this can work, and in practical ways that improve self reliance. Well done.

future engineering students who come to me and talk after class, and I always tell them we need people like you to invent new ways to travel and improve our grid, homes, and lives. They leave the room with purpose and a charged up being.

Heartening post Paulo, and the peptalk above (which could similarly apply to students of all disciplines) is perhaps the key to their/our future.

I teach a planning course for grade 10...in BC. I teach a unit on PO due to a few facts. Global warming is widely accepted and green initiatives are almost cliches, yet we are missing the greatest change prospect to face humans from when?

On Vancouver Island we continually teach to prepare for the big one (subduction zone quake) and our schools are being earthquake proofed if they are not already refitted or built to specs.

Anyway, Planning is a course to prepare students for a work life and compels students to plan for graduation. I take it very seriously. They have to complete it in order to graduate.

I feel it is a moral imperative to share the knowledge of PO in a way that also continually emphasizes that life is change, itself. I use the example of my 90 year old mom who has gone from Depression poor poor poor, to where we are today. If we park our cars and live closer to work, well, who is going to shoot me for that? I also ask students to share this with their parents at home and urge discussion and contact from home to school. They have my home number and email, etc.

I had one lovely girl, who is planning for a career in law, ask if we could get the oil back? and I suddenly realized that they had no idea of the first and second law....so we had to back track a bit and explain about the sun's stored energy in whatever form it might take and the conditions of how oil is formed. (Thank you TOD for the facts at my disposal). We are now watching short clips of a drama....I believe it is called 'when the oil runs out'.

We will also be watching 'Food inc' when we study health and Nutrition in November. We will also be doing emergency first aid.

My kids are grown...one is in a career of electrical and electronics...energy if you will. My other teaches elementary and music. They know about PO and are keeping consumptions modest and debt down.

I love these kids (at school) and want to carefully give them some facts they can use when the shtf, and I also disseminate articles and worksheets to my colleagues. I have future engineering students who come to me and talk after class, and I always tell them we need people like you to invent new ways to travel and improve our grid, homes, and lives. They leave the room with purpose and a charged up being. No slumped shoulders is the goal for all.

We also have a strong unit on debt and economics, and we compare the US system to Canada's, and have a discussion on whether to rent, buy, pay off, or re-fi. It is all so inter-related.

That is the morning. At noon I get in my Yaris and drive 5 miles to another school and teach metal work, including traditional blacksmithing. The kids are eating it up. We use lathes and weld, and also blacksmith. I mention this all to let you know that teaching for PO is the right thing to do, and that it can be done without causing problems.

How could I look these young people in the face and keep quiet about it? How could you?

Cheers......Paulo

Yes, let's give them a break and tell 'em what we know. There's not much time. In a few years we may be calling it "history". I work with several young city planners that don't have a clue. What does that say? My generation is a write-off. Let's hope for the next one.

If the world will be changing, what should we be saying to our children about it?

We should be teaching our children to have less children when they grow up.

People won't change until its too late in the US so I spred the word about peak oil to anyone that will listen. And I can tell not many people want to listen about peak oil. So what do you do?

So what to do?

First you have to break it to them that Santa Claus is a fiction.

Then suggest there are many other fictions that were taught in childhood and not yet unmasked.

_____________________
welcome back reno, long time no see around these digs, how goes the road?

Santa Claus is a fiction

Yes! Of course, the parents with pitchforks are going to be after you...

I remember figuring this out and the first thing I did was tell my younger sister. My mother was upset that I messed up my sister Christmas experience and a was upset/angry that my parents had lied to me and were unhappy that I had told the truth.

Lessons learned?

I had told the truth

Maybe the truth is that Santa Claus is real, until he isn't.
BAU is real, until it isn't.
Our perceived "reality" is real, until it isn't.

+10

Over to you, RGR!

(to RGR) Do you have links for the Earth's endowment of oil being between 5 and 14T bbls?

(to RGR) Do you have links for the Earth's endowment of oil being between 5 and 14T bbls?

One of them comes from Richards work that Andre referenced during a discussion a month or two back. He had to collect his own copy to make a link, I just remember the numbers Richard was referencing. Haven't gotten a chance to talk to him personally about it yet but I will. Saleri is the reference for the other, and I'm not clear on the origin of his numbers but they work as a quick reference from a real expert to show that this entire 1 or 2 trillion argument is silly. Here's the Saleri ref:

Figure 1

http://www.spe.org/spe-app/spe/jpt/2006/04/tech_tomorrow_trillion.htm

The road has been great. I've haven't posted here but keep up with the news. I love telling everyone I meet about peak oil to gauge their reaction.

The road has been great.

Good to hear.

In my line of work I have learned to keep my mouth shut about Peak Oil because such talk is bad for as-usual-business.

People start giving you a strange look when you start talking loony talk.

I went to a school last Friday and spoke with fifteen kids about peak oil and food security. They were all younger than high school age -- not your typical school but options exist for some parents.

One aspect that even young students should be taught is the concept of non-renewable resources and the special nature of petroleum.
First, unlike precious metals (which are also finite but are so valuable that they are almost always recycled), fossil fuels can be used only once (hence Hubbert's famous quote about the unprecedented nature of the problem which we face).

Second, petroleum is not just a finite resource, it is ENERGY and therefore (as Homer-Dixon as stressed) a "master resource" which allows us to extract & use other resources.
Younger kids could learn this concept without having to endure the implications of fossil fuel decline, which they will eventually come to realize as they mature.

I do think that Boards of Education have a vital role to play here.

food security

There is the thin edge of the wedge.

Food preservation. Solar based heating/food processing. You can even slip it past most of the bible thumpers with the 7 year food store thing.

Even track the energy used to make the food.

Consider having few or no children.

done, and none of my friends with an IQ above 120 are having children. That being said, I've known of people with IQs of 75 who have had six children by the time they are 23, with one on the way, and they use crystal meth and alcohol... and they're supported by the State... for now.

So we teach children that having children is a bad thing to do? That they, a child, are bad, a horrible mistake because they are children who should not have been.

Human population levels are a huge issue and I do not want to underplay this. Still the issues are more behavior than just numbers. A human population of 10,000 would be too many if the favorite past time activity is watching nuclear warheads go off.

Smart people having no children does not seem very smart. We need smart/aware/healthy kids to lead us forward.

Is it possible for us to feed our present population in a sustainable environmental responsible way? Hard to say but I think it might be within the realm of possibilities. But only if everyone ate a mostly vegetarian diet, eating only enough to maintain a healthy weight and careful to avoid wasting food.

They should be taught from very early on that having children is a huge responsibility, and thay they must care for, provide for and educate their children.

yeah maybe the one child population problem angle is easier to get your head around. Gaussian distributions, peaking and all that is not intuitive to children. I have explained it to a 12 year old once and used the ketchup bottle analogy. its harder to get the second half of the ketchup out of the bottle. People get its finite fairly readily

I really do not know enough about education to comment. I feel totally out of my depth on the issue. If the meme permeates adult society enough I guess kids will ask?

Currently the answer to your feeding the population question is almost a yes. I say almost because at present half the world is under nourished, but mostly because of the politics of keeping some people fed and others not. We have the food, we could be in Haiti right now building houses for people, and feeding them too, just to many people dragging their feet and playing the head games that the world has been doing so much of lately.

But can we keep the grains being grown at the same pace that they have been while we mine fewer and fewer energy units and minerals and what not? Yes if we reorder our lives and teach people and kids alike that what they see in the news headlines does not need to be the way it is for them tomorrow or any time in the future.

All that said, we are fighting a battle of greed in too many people. Loads of people look at their plates and think, This stuff is mind, why do I have to share?

I grew up as an only child for 7 years, I am surprised that I am not more greedy and selfish than I am, but that is because I was always taught that sharing was the way that you did things. I heard stories of the family that when needy people showed up for dinner you fed them, realizing that the people feeding others were just as poor in money, but not poor in spirit. I've seen my mom for years now, take the burnt piece of toast because that way someone else did not have to have the bad one. My dad complains that at times when I have money, I shouldn't give it all away.

We were just discussing if Warren Buffet was really going to give all his wealth away, but he has lived a frugal life, at least in the home he lives in. Why do we need more and more? Written large in our actions are the fears of depression and famine. We think that if we save up the hoard of food we will be safe when the storms of the future come to take us to our knees. Then watch you storehouse burn to the ground and all your feilds dry up and blow away. If you have no skills to get your belly fed, having had all the money in the world won't feed you, if you can't tell which plant is edible and which is not in the forest outside.

But there is that fear also that there will be no forests left, because of the greed of others and the way the world's climate is changing. I don't the answers, but if we don't start teaching people how to care for each other a bit more than they seem to do right now, all we will get is war and death in the future.

I don't have kids, I do talk about how we should know more about the world around us though, how growing your own foods, even if a little bit helps you know more about how to raise food and in time might help you not be hungry when the stores all close. Most of all I try to be kind to others and help them where I can, teaching by doing lasts longer than just telling someone.

Charles,
BioWebScape designs for a better fed and housed world.

Stream47, the book to read is Richard Lynn's Dysgenics: Genetic Deterioration in Modern Populations:

In the mid-19th century, a number of biological and social scientists came to believe that the genetic quality of the populations of the Western nations was deteriorating due to the relaxation of natural selection, the process by which nature eliminates the unfit in each generation by reducing their fertility and by early death. This view, and the idea that steps needed to be taken to correct the situation, came to be widely accepted by the first half of the 20th century. In the second half of the century, however, a reaction against eugenics set in, and from the 1970s onwards eugenics was almost universally dismissed. In this book, Richard Lynn reviews the history of the eugenics movement and seeks to rehabilitate the argument that genetic deterioration is occurring.

http://www.archive.org/details/Dysgenics-Richard-Lynn

One of my favorite early writers on population and peak oil was Charles Galton Darwin, the physicist grandson of Charles Darwin. He later got a perhaps undeserved bad press for having once been involved with the British eugenics movement.

---One of the pro-abortion arguments used by Garrett Hardin was that many conception control methods were dysgenic compared to abortion. They would ultimately show a selection bias in favor of failure.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/405285/The-Next-Million-Years-by-Charles-Galto...

http://www.questionsquestions.net/docs04/ruppert_darwin.html

I teach advanced high school chemistry classes -- mostly juniors & seniors -- & I talk about peak oil & climate change quite often. The response is sort of weird -- they're smart kids & most of them seem to get it (on an intellectual/scientific level, at least) that big changes are coming. But the funny thing is that they don't seem to process it more than that; they don't seem to be able to see that it actually applies to them & not just to some abstract future. i.e. They go on making 'normal' plans for a 'business as usual' future like I never said anything. They tell me about their future careers etc in a world that will never exist. I don't have the heart to keep pressing them on it at that point & I just nod & say good luck & write their recommendation letters to college. They just seem so excited & hopeful for the same lives (only better) that their upper-middle class parents are currently enjoying. Sigh. Nobody WANTS to get it, so they don't. It's too scary for them.

So here's what I do: I still feel it's necessary to tell them the truth about the energy/economic/environmental prdicaments, & I keep them updated on a regular basis. But what seems to work the best along with that is to intersperse it with lots of talk about what I'm doing about it personally: gardening, low-tech replacements for fossil-fuel-dependent gizmos, learning ecology, trying to build community bonds, planting fruit & nut trees, raising chickens & sheep, trying to live Leopold's Land Ethic, etc. etc. They seem to like that & connect with it on a more personal level than the peak oil or climate data.

So who knows? It's gonna be a kick in the gut for everyone when the ship starts to go down. I feel that the best I can do is plant some seeds that might grow into something good. It makes me feel better, if nothing else.

Ah well. I remember a geography class in high school, where the teacher[1] presented the logistic curve and used oil as a resource example. I recall him trying to persuade us that geology was a good thing to study; a hard sell with suburban kids.

He said round about 2008, oil would peak and start to run out. At the time I said, to myself, "well that's 20 years away, I'd be 35". I simply couldn't imagine being 35 at the time and promptly forgot about the problem. Y'know, "someone will do something". Well, they didn't.

At 15 kids have no idea how the world works, or what oil is used for, so even if it's covered, the impact won't click. They are also semi-socialist and assume that everyone works for the good of everyone.

[1] He also said not to worry about the cold war because America and Russia had too much to lose to start a war and the real problem would be from the middle east where people were fanatical about their religions.

Not much else you can do. Keep on.

Good luck with that dan allen. You sort of remind me of the greatest teachers I have ever had. They had a heart and a soul. And they were also smart. So you're in the right place.

You could have a monthly "milk and cookies ... the sky is falling" meetings to have parents and students brainstorm what they have learned and what they know and what they guess:
the problems are ...
the problem causes are ...
the possible solutions are ...

You could have different facilitators, and put it on film. This would impress the community, and it would give the kids some inspiration. You could have a monthly award for the top ten testers, with a gift certificate to the local health food store, or some such.

Have no fear: The Tripe System is here. Read this report, or better yet, let your open minded students have a look. Brainstorm the idea with the kids. It would be a good example why real brainstorming worked so well in the quality circle management that made so many innovative employee owned companies, and their employees rich.

The track pipe system is the "internet of energy", which is just exactly what we need.
The track pipe system is a fantastically unrealistic waste of time.
What's the consensus?

First off as you age you learn more things about life. I was a grown up living in a kids body for a long time, I have heard stories where my older peers( about 1 to 2 years older) thought I was really mature and steady headed. I guess learning how to run a full kitchen and plan meals and take care of the million things you have to keep track of while fixing a meal for 500 people can do that to you. I never fit in with kids my age, I always hung out with the adults, listened to their stories and what was going on in their lives, and never saw the kid things most youngsters were seeing.

I planned for a future, but I never got to be a forest ranger. I have almost all the skills that one needs to have, but I never got the job of one. I did not go to college to learn a trade, I wanted to learn things, things I was interested in I have more college hours than some Ph.d's but I don't have a piece of paper saying that, just the hours spent in classes of all sorts. I am what I am because I have the skills to back up what I say I know.

A teen age mind is filled with things about today, and hardly thinks about the future, it is to big a thing to see, yet if you think about it a lot, you tend toward adulthood faster than the average.

Planting a garden as a youth helped me plan ahead, helped me see what a future would look like, and putting up the friuts of my labor by canning it and making sauces and relishes and having a father and mother who knew what was what in a kitchen helped too. I was in highschool and as an extended family (aunt and uncle and a cousin) we preped and planned meals for 50 to 500 people one day a week for 3 years. I was my dad's backup cook, and I did all the dishes, and served on the serving line. We also did most of the other major meals of the year for the church. Fast pace working in a time constrained kitchen can teach you a lot of things that schools just don't have the ability to do.

Help your students by including them on your projects as much as you can. See if getting a small garden or other projects going at school is possible. The learning never ends, and teaching is not always by what you hear someone say, but what you see them do, how they act in the crowd and how they get things done.

You might be teaching them things that right now they can't fathom that you are teaching them, and when the time comes and they need that skill or are learning about the world around them in a way that seems like they don't have their heads stuck in the clouds, they might look back at what you did and see the benifit.

Best hopes for those that are young at heart and still dream dreams, they are trully going to be the ones that our future is hinged on, even if they don't see it yet.

Charles,
BioWebScape designs for a better fed and housed world, teaching by doing.

Is it even possible to teach peak oil in school without a parent, such as myself, coming unglued when it includes the kind of rampant speculation favored by its advocates?

Someone wants to teach that peak oil is a maximum production rate, at some point in time? I could survive that. But the instant someones personal rapture scenario is attached to it? I'll be in the principles office as fast as I was when someone demanded a numerical answer to an equation which tried to use zero as a denominator.

If those who write curriculum don't understand how ridiculous that looks, what are they going to do when presenting the basics of the rate of conversion from resource to reserves, discovery process modeling, or as has been demonstrated in this very forum, knowing how to count what OIL actually is?

It would be nice if children were taught to be citizens, as well as fact regurgitators. However with the timetable as crowded as it is, it would require a realisation in the education community that they have been focusing on the wrong things.

If taught, it should be in the context of the wider 'limits to growth' understanding of our global systems - touching on areas such as climate change, peak oil, food, water, fiat currencies, demographics, etc.

Before that however, the adults would have to understand and come up with some workable answers themselves. So you'd have to start by teaching the adults about the world.

My children's teachers are the same ones I had. They stopped thinking a long time ago. I say skip them and move on to something kids might pay attention to. Make it a video game. My kids know how to fish to earn weapons on RuneScape and how to conduct a war on Mars. This subject could be presented as another alternative world in which to earn points.

Already been done.

I'm sure others remember the web based game 2ish years ago.

When you mentioned Runescape I had to pause a second and remember all the time I spent playing that game, But I came from a D&D background where it is all in your head and paper. But my second wife was a Mud Player online, and my first note to her was the kicker in us meeting. "To Mud or not to Mud?" LOL.

Though the biggest thing that Mudding did was teach me that I wasted a lot more time not doing other things, though I never played online Muds before I met her, and we'd play in the same room and have conversations outside the universes that we might have been playing in at the time, we did do a fair bit of playing in the same worlds and areas doing things in game as well of in the real world. She was wheelchair bound a lot of the time and sitting in a room doing a lot of not going out was a big thing for us.

If you are able bodied, I'd not do it as much as I once did, I've even spent a lot less time online just out of hand lately, so if you see me pop in here, you might be one of the lucky few( or unlucky few as the case may be).

Second Life for Oil Peakers, Yay boy, I'm all for spending time online to teach the world how to live without the internet.(snarking off).

Charles,
BioWebScape designs for a better fed and housed world.

We should be teaching our children the truth! The easy to get oil is gone, new sources involve increasing costs and complications. The use of any fossil fuel resource involves, environmental, social, and health consequences. There are alternative sources, and the future will be determined in a large part by our energy use decisions.

We should be teaching our children the truth!

Who's truth? Yours...or mine? The Bible? The Koran? Book of Mormon? The Vedas? Truth can be a tricky thing.

The easy to get oil is gone, new sources involve increasing costs and complications.

The easy oil was gone in 1901, and required new technologies to access it ever after. It got even tougher in the 1940's, and required better and newer technologies to access it yet again. The beginning of the transition to unconventional resources started a few decades back and will continue throughout the next century in yet another introduction to something more difficult still.

How does this fit in with the "truth" someone might want to teach on peak oil? Do we tell the children about all the OTHER peak oils as well? Is the resource pyramid verboten?

As far as energy decisions, hey, we made'im. We chose fossil fuels. Pretty decent stuff...certainly not the cleanest of choices....fortunately, we aren't limited to them and are just now coming around to building those out as well. Found approximately 3 new windfarms in the past 2 weeks on a trip to Alaska, the things just keep popping up like vermin. Good deal, and thats coming from a guy who's entire professional life has revolved around the exploration for, development of, and research on, fossil fuels.

It is really obvious to me that we should teach the wonders and mysteries locked in the earth.

Do people realize that the size distribution of freshwater lakes in the world matches the size distribution of oil reservoirs?
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2010/10/lake-size-distributions.html

Teach these kinds of things and people can start making associations to concrete ideas that they can understand. One of the thorny parts of geology is getting across a sense of what's happening under the earth, since most people can't relate to it in their day-to-day experiences.

Do people realize that the size distribution of freshwater lakes in the world matches the size distribution of oil reservoirs?

I did not realize that, no. And until you have the data on actual reservoir sizes rather than one dependent on and consisting of something limited, constrained, reduced, (let alone undiscovered) by everything from recovery factors, economics, drilling technology and its application with respect to time, land usage restrictions and a few others I can think of without even trying hard, you don't either.

It is certainly a fascinating topic however.

Just like I said today on Drumbeat or some other post:

There exists a tribe of folks who won't be happy unless we seismically image the entire Earth down to 30,000 feet looking for oil strata/reservoir signatures, and back that up by drilling a couple million exploratory wells everywhere, including under the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps, under the Arctic Ocean, all across Africa, Tierra Del Fuego, everywhere!

Characterize the porosity, the API and 'sweetness' of the oil, the reservoir drive mechanism/pressure...I guess only an all-out geological assay of the entire Earth will put paid to this argument that there is always more super-giants to find...the argument that perhaps there is 3 trillion bbls of light, sweet crude under the Antarctic icecap.

And another trillion under Greenland!

Current oil endowment estimates range from 5 (Nehring) to 14 (Saleri) trillion.

Shut down all exploration tomorrow....new super giants in Greenland won't be required until the 22nd Century, assuming we even need it.

I don't care if the world has 100 trillion bbl of oil.

What matters to me, my neighbor, and 340 million other Americans is the price. Right now oil is at $81/bbl and rising. If gas goes to $4/gal average again for any length of time, the USA will see next step down in the economy, unemployment will grow, more houses in foreclosure, and less descretionary income to spend. Then what is left of my current business will crumble and I will be on food stamps, joining the already 45+ million Americans on that government aid.

We know the cheap oil is gone, much of the rest (be it 1.5 trillion or 100 trillion bbl) will be uneconomical to produce.

In the end the public will take out its rath on those that have made unfulfillable promises, like 14 trillion barrels of oil. Better to know the truth now than have lies discovered later. And you, Res-G-2, are spewing lies.

I don't care if the world has 100 trillion bbl of oil.

I do. Endowment size is critical to any questions related to depletion.

We know the cheap oil is gone, much of the rest (be it 1.5 trillion or 100 trillion bbl) will be uneconomical to produce.

Not true at all. Its called "reserves" for a reason, and the reason is that it IS economical to produce.You are trying to write a new definition and until you get SPE or the SEC to agree with you, I'll stick with the ones we've already got.

And you, Res-G-2, are spewing lies.

Never. But those who don't understand my literal nature, and their misunderstanding of the terms and definitions used (let alone confusing peak oil dogma with reality), can easily lead them to draw incorrect conclusions. As you have.

Rulz,
I also am getting increasingly perturbed by what you post.
First, almost all of your posts consist of quoting what someone else said, and then criticizing it.
Is there nothing that you find of value here, or are we all misguided fools, while you alone know the truth?

Second, your title, "Reserve Growth Rules" certainly implies that your mind is already made up: you believe that proven oil reserves will continue to grow for a very long time, and nothing will convince you otherwise.

Third, you object to everyone else's stats and question their validity, but happily provide your own.

Fourth, "endowment size" (volume of proven reserves?) is a factor in depletion, but certainly not the only one.
In any event, PO is usually defined by flow rate (ie. barrels per day). There is a multitude of other related factors (price and economic repercussions, export availability, EROEI, market uncertainties and investment, etc) which also fall within PO analyses.

Finally, I agree that there is some PO dogma/hype/doomerism out there, but most people at TOD are pretty good at rising above it.

With all due respect, your nature may be more than literal: you may have blinkers on, same as the rest of us.
We all need to be mindful of that possibility, especially as educators (to return to the topic of this thread).

Rulz,
I also am getting increasingly perturbed by what you post.

The company you keep are like the stars. :>)

Is there nothing that you find of value here, or are we all misguided fools, while you alone know the truth?

Of course I find something of value here. The idea that resource depletion topics are important, and that linkages between the science of resource depletion and run of the mill conspiracy crackpots is a bad thing. As far as anyones version of "truth", I try and avoid even the notion that anything related to resource depletion is required to be faith based.

Second, your title, "Reserve Growth Rules" certainly implies that your mind is already made up: you believe that proven oil reserves will continue to grow for a very long time, and nothing will convince you otherwise.

Professionally I can document the specific sizes, changes, the likely duration, location and ownership of, possibly even make an estimate of price points and probabilistic ranges of many of these parameters down to the field level, and my username is a near perfect expression of the correct answer to the question, "where will future production come from", except without the 100 pages of text, figures and references I would normally publish to go with it.

Fourth, "endowment size" (volume of proven reserves?) is a factor in depletion, but certainly not the only one.

I would ask you check your definitions before proceeding. If I have 5 barrels of endowment and produce 1, depletion has begun. If I have 5 billion barrels of endowment and I produce 1, depletion has still begun. Volumetrically speaking, the exact same amount. Depletion does not require an endowment size to happen. Depletion RATE is a different issue.

Finally, I agree that there is some PO dogma/hype/doomerism out there, but most people at TOD are pretty good at rising above it.

Effects of moderation not visible to general members does not change the percentage of people who believe in peak oil and its linkages to their favorite crackpot conspiracies. It just means you don't see them as much.

With all due respect, your nature may be more than literal: you may have blinkers on, same as the rest of us.
We all need to be mindful of that possibility, especially as educators (to return to the topic of this thread).

I am a scientist. It is my job to wrap an idea in the best body armor I can design and stand it in front of my biggest detractors with the largest weapons. It is natural for me to be objective about the results of that exercise. It also means I have gotten very good at building body armor for my ideas. People don't like what I say? Prove me wrong. I certainly don't learn anything from those who simply scream "LIAR!" and run away without further comment.

I consider it important to teach the basics of this philosophy to the children of course. Critical thinking in my household is required and not a punchline to a bad joke in the Doomer community.

Rulz,
If you believe that you can indeed "document the specific sizes, changes, the likely duration, location and ownership of, possibly even make an estimate of price points and probabilistic ranges of many of these parameters down to the field level" then that says a great deal about what you think of your unmatched abilities.
Surely you have already been hired by the world's leading investment firm and are already a millionaire thanks to your incredible foresight.

As for definitions, you are the only oil supply analyst (I'm being generous here) whom I've encountered who uses "endowment size" as a meaningful term.
But then you tell me that I need to check my definitions before proceeding.
Please enlighten us as to what exactly you mean by "endowment size."

Finally, your view of yourself as a scientist whose job it is is to "wrap yourself in body armour to protect your ideas" is pretty bizarre.
I know a great many first-rate scientists, none of whom need body armour of any type, and all of whom are ready to consider new info.
Please get some sleep, and in the morning give your rather swollen head a shake.

Surely you have already been hired by the world's leading investment firm and are already a millionaire thanks to your incredible foresight.

Nope. But those guys certainly stop by on occasion and ask for help. :>)

Please get some sleep, and in the morning give your rather swollen head a shake.

Oh...you just caught me in a good mood weekend. I've been particularly productive this weekend and around here its like relaxation time.

I am close-minded. It is my job to wrap an idea in the best body armor I can design and stand it in front of my biggest detractors with the largest weapons. It is natural for me to be objective about the results of that exercise. It also means I have gotten very good at building body armor for my ideas. People don't like what I say? Prove me wrong. I certainly don't learn anything from those who simply scream "LIAR!" and run away without further comment.

It is impossible for anyone to prove you wrong, because you decide what is right and wrong. If being proved wrong is a failure on your part, you're setting yourself up to be very close minded. Perhaps your time as a "scientist" has habituated you to thinking this way. The whole peer-review gravy train.

In statistical hypothesis testing, there are two types of incorrect conclusions or errors that can be drawn. If a null hypothesis is incorrectly rejected, when it should in fact be accepted, it is called a Type I error (also known as a false positive). A Type II error (also known as a false negative), occurs when a null hypothesis is incorrectly accepted when it should in fact be rejected.

I think you have a very low chance of making a Type 1 error, but an unacceptably high chance of making a type 2 error.

Cheers.

you're setting yourself up to be very close minded.

I'll go one farther.

He's a liar - he claimed he'd answer direct questions and less than 1/2 a day later says he won't answer a direct question.

Like I haven't heard that brand before. My favorite is when I'm accused of being a CIA plant of some sort, sent in to ferret out the extremists within the peak oil movement. Thats my fav.

.Like I haven't heard that brand before.

Why? Because you'd said you'd do something than less then 12 hours later shown that you would not?

It is impossible for anyone to prove you wrong, because you decide what is right and wrong.

Incorrect. I don't tend to make ridiculous predictions, that makes it impossible to prove me wrong. And the predictions I do make, I certainly don't discuss here.

As far as whats right and wrong, I do my best to sift through available information just like everyone else, and draw conclusions from what is available.

The whole peer-review gravy train.

You make peer review sound like a bad thing. Do you believe that?

When someone starts believing that it is impossible to be proven wrong (or is even interested in that goal), he or she might want to consider psychiatric help.
Your line of thinking is antithetical to scientific enquiry and contributes little to this discussion.
But I doubt that is your intention; rather, you are here merely for the sport.
Not helpful....

@Reservegrowthrulz2 (I guess RGR, the famous troll on the UK forum powerswitch and probably others)

"I am a scientist." "prove me wrong"

You are mostly a clown, in this field of resource depletion and PO, there is nothing to "prove" :

1) the basic concepts, the fact that the production level of a non renewable resource has to go through a maximum is primary school math level.
2) getting the exact date or the exact "position on the curve" is about crunching data of various quality, as well as being interlinked with human society dynamics, and has nothing to do with "proving".

Regarding 2) and for the specific case of oil, I would rather follow Campbell, Laherrère or a few others analysis, than your "field level", "scientific method based", enough reserves for decades to come approach ...

See ?

Well He's certainly been the well-fed Belle of the Ball on this Post, no?

I agree, unfortunately, and I'm as guilty as any in terms of providing unwarranted attention.
I assume that people who post here operate in good faith, and are here to learn as well as to contribute constructively.
I will be more careful in the future, though I would rather not have to be so guarded.

I note you did not touch this part:
Right now oil is at $81/bbl and rising. If gas goes to $4/gal average again for any length of time, the USA will see next step down in the economy, unemployment will grow, more houses in foreclosure, and less descretionary income to spend. Then what is left of my current business will crumble and I will be on food stamps, joining the already 45+ million Americans on that government aid.

Will you explain why you did not?

I don't think he, like Nick, has a good understanding of what's going on. For instance, the neoclassical economists' worldview doesn't account for credit and debt thus what you're pointing out doesn't really make a difference. If it's not included in the model, it doesn't matter. Except that it does.

It's why mainstream economists can't predict for beans. They always say that the future will be more or less like the past.

Economists Can't Predict Recessions

Both Nick and RGR2 should study Steve Keen more:

On debt and the economy: How do we pay for all this?
http://blip.tv/file/2814691

In that video he explains why the neoclassical model can't see what his model sees plus it includes some pretty scary graphs that show how much de-leveraging we have ahead of us. Unfortunately, the overwhelming probability is that mbnewtrain's business is going to have a very hard time, very soon.

In any case, teaching the "accounting" or "circuit" economic model plus the way money is really created (not the money multiplier theory, which Keen points out was demonstrated to be incorrect ~15 years ago) are both good topics to teach kids.

Some time last month the price of oil was going down. Today its going up. Tomorrow it will do one or the other again. I do not consider its direction at any given point in time to be particularly important.

I was in Alaska last week. Gasoline was $4/gal there. Was there less discretionary spending because of it? Maybe. Were more houses in foreclosure? Maybe. Were businesses crumbling and there was Doom in the streets? Not that I noticed.

What happens when gasoline hits $4/gal where I live? Nothing for me, I'll still spend less than I did in 2008 on gasoline, which was less than I spent in 2007. Why? Because driving less and a capital investment into a machine which gets better mileage can neutralize such increased OpEx quite easily. No point in making a mountain out of a molehill. So I didn't respond the first time, hopefully this comment was sufficient for my opinion on market watching at the microscopic level and extrapolating macro level trends from it.

So your "answer" to a direct question is a non-answer.

So I didn't respond the first time,
http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/6989#comment-728632
was on October 3, 2010 - 6:05pm

http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/6989#comment-728475
was on October 3, 2010 - 11:17am
where you said:

Ask a proper question and I'll answer it

By 6 PM, was the 11 AM offer off the table?

How about your outright rejection of answering a question
http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/6989#comment-728674
October 3, 2010 - 8:20pm
I shall resist the urge to comment

By 8 PM the 11AM offer was off the table.

You put up a direct offer - and in under 12 hours you've retreated from your position to the point where you admit you won't do what you said you'd do.

I do not understand your question.

http://www.nehringdatabase.com/about_nehring.html

http://www.oilcrisis.com/Nehring/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nansen_G._Saleri

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120459389654809159.html

In fact, we are nowhere close to reaching a peak in global oil supplies.

5-14T bbls: How were these estimates calculated?

How does this jibe with the analysis from the dispersive discovery model?

How does this jibe with the analysis from the dispersive discovery model?

I can change the Dispersive Discovery model from around 2 to 3 trillion and only get the peak to change a few years. The interesting thing about the dispersion model is that a large proportion is in the tails. And since tails occur in the future, we still have a rate problem. I.E. how to extract fast enough to keep us at acceptable levels.

Fact of the matter, I can postulate an infinite supply, for example a drop off in potential discoveries of 1/Time, but this by definition can't keep up with growth.

Other than that, getting to something like 5 trillion would require a huge backdating of previous discoveries. We are so far down in the discovery curve, its hard to believe that we have a lot of undiscovered resources. The reason I have a model at 3 trillion was to account for the possible backdating of the discovery curves, otherwise it is around 2 trillion.

My entire set of models is of a piece. The reservoir size model is very consistent with this view. Unless everything is backdated with reserve growth, we would need twice as many discoveries to double the 2-3 trillion value.

The recovery factor is only a 1/3 about so it could be that this is what they are talking about. I always assumed that 2/3 is lost to entropy, as easy to extract as uranium from sea-water.

5-14T bbls: How were these estimates calculated?

Saleri lists the upper number as a compilation from multiple sources, most of which I would probably be familiar with, but when I do the same exercise I don't come up with 14 trillion. Richards numbers are much more limited in what he counts.

How does this jibe with the analysis from the dispersive discovery model?

You would have to ask its author. From my perspective Web's trend fitting exercises are wonderfully overwrought complexities which will give you any answer you wish. So you pick a conclusions...say....peak conventional oil in 2005....and do the exercise in such a way as to give you exactly that...declare victory....and hope no one remembers a few years later when the obvious happens. Look at it this way...if it worked? Web would predict the stock market over the next year, get rich, and won't have to waste his time pretending that signal processing is the same thing as finding oilfields anymore.

Perhaps. It just occurred to me that if people had realized that oil distribution matches lake distribution (which it absolutely has to due to the nature of physical processes) then we would have know in 1900 how everything would play out. The mystery of what and how much lied under earth's crust would have unraveled with this initial insight.

Call me crazy heuristic and all, but until you work your way around the fundamental assumption that you can derive the current distribution of reservoir sizes from data which contains not a single one, I wouldn't plan on the Nobel Prize just yet.

Back on topic.

so would you be in favour of teaching a form of extreme skepticism to children. "Do not believe projections or estimates that are not derived from near 100% sampling" A mindset children should be encouraged to have?

so would you be in favour of teaching a form of extreme skepticism to children. "Do not believe projections or estimates that are not derived from near 100% sampling" A mindset children should be encouraged to have?

I believe in teaching children to think for themselves. I don't think that is done by feeding them a "story" designed to cause them to arrive at an expected conclusion determined in advance.

.

basically you seem to be saying nothing here.. Teaching requires at some point you have to start with an assumption or story you take as being true even if it is "nothing is true unless you think so".

saying I think children should be taught to think for themselves is somewhat glib.

how do you do that? what does that mean. .Everyone thinks for themselves even if the memes and ideas they use come from outside themselves

they virtually all do.

what is thinking for yourself? One of those expressions everyone seems to use but after reflection it becomes apparent it means nothing of any real substance at all. It suffers from the extreme relativism you complained of earlier

"who's truth?" etc

does this mean religion should not be taught?

to a specific question its not a good answer IE;

would you be in favour of teaching a form of extreme skepticism to children. "Do not believe projections or estimates that are not derived from near 100% sampling" A mindset children should be encouraged to have?

yes or no?

Some people teach their children what to think. Some teach them how to think. This is not very hard to understand, IMO.

I not overly swayed by that answer to be honest

in relation to putting credence in statistically based projections?

How should we think about that? Do children of a high school age need to be taught the various methods of assessing the validity of a predictions methodology? Or are all predictions taught as being of a single type of presentation all equally worthy of the same degree of skepticism?

once you home in on a issue this how vs what argument looks vacuous what fundamental thinking "tricks" do we teach our children to come up with their own valid thinking. cos I don't know the answer to that.

all these common sense simplistic ideas on what gets crammed into our heads doesn't really survive contact with the complexity of the issues being addressed

How many people in society have the required knowledge to even contemplate resource depletion with any degree of rationality?... thats a judgement call

EDIT: don't tell me that this stuff is easy to see

How many people in society have the required knowledge to even contemplate resource depletion with any degree of rationality?

Not many. And it doesn't help much when peak oil profiteers, charlatans, subscription sales and general snake oil/gold/PM salesmen (and well meaning but generally confused amateurs) bollix up the works by getting the topic associated with every conspiracy theory in reach and destroy any hope of the topic getting the serious attention it deserves.

I think you make a very good point.

lol.

Of course. The US and the UK invaded Iraq for their "weapons of mass destruction." You don't seriously still believe that, do you?

"I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil."
— Alan Greenspan

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article2461214.ece

There was most definitely a "conspiracy" to gain the backing of the American populace behind a completely fictional story that there were "weapons of mass destruction" in Iraq that posed a threat to the U.S.

Once you realize that the American public was manipulated by Bush and Co., the rest of the story begins to unravel all on its own with just a bit of critical thinking and loads of evidence that has now accumulated. Half the planet didn't believe it before the war which is why there were massive demonstrations in major cities, mostly outside the U.S.

I'm happy to not discuss this further here so as not to offend your concern about "conspiracy theories." But it's worth pointing out that most non-Americans could see clearly what was happening. I don't have the links handy to the Pew Trust studies that demonstrate that but you could look them up if you wanted to.

Of course. The US and the UK invaded Iraq for their "weapons of mass destruction." You don't seriously still believe that, do you?

I always ask, and no one ever takes me up on it, but could you please point out anything in the US budget which may say something like "Proceeds of stolen and sold Iraqi oil", perhaps "credit on account for Iraqi oil proceeds", something like that? It sure would be nice to know for the NEXT time someone tries to link wars, events, or a lunar eclipse with their favorite howl at the moon theory.

I'm happy to not discuss this further here so as not to offend your concern about "conspiracy theories.

Good, then I'll stop as well. I'd rather argue about the aliens on the Moon that NASA discovered in 69 and then covered up (versus those faked moon landings crazies! How could we ever have faked the moon landings if they were finding aliens instead!).

Greenspan and I will show whatever you want just as soon as you show us all those big nasty WMDs that Saddam supposedly had ready to use on the American populace...

Lundberg and I will show you the parked Walmart trucks for lack of fuel as soon as peak oil happens...oops....that won't work because it already has! And they didn't!

Do we have here an example of a paid clown?

>> Do we have here an example of a paid clown?

No.

RGR is an experienced & well qualified industry professional and certainly knows his field.

He does however have strong opinions and likes to make waves on the Web as a bit of a hobby!

I just can't STAND it when people blow my cover.

"I may not agree with what you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it" ...

well, until you get REALLY annoying!

The right to speak your truth, should be protected

But being disingenuous is more than just annoying

Fortunately, some of us don't lie. Some hyperbole occasionally, but thats about it.

I always ask, and no one ever takes me up on it, but could you please point out anything in the US budget which may say something like "Proceeds of stolen and sold Iraqi oil", perhaps "credit on account for Iraqi oil proceeds", something like that?

Is this the same budget process that can't find 2 trillion per the announcement on 9/10/2001?

I shall resist the urge to comment for fear of unleashing the limitless tides of conspiracy upon the forum. Sorry Eric. Maybe if they open up a Campfire For Conspiratorialists section?

And when does pointing out that the accounting methods used by US Government are so poor they can't keep track of 2 trillion in juxtaposition of your request to show a budget line item somehow become 'a conspiracy'?

Strikes me you are going to use a label (conspiracy theory) to avoid answering or talking about a topic. That topic being "using the US Budget system to prove something shows you are delusional because the US budget process is delusional!!!".

And there lies a lesson to teach the children. (thus bringing it around to the topic of the Campfire)

Sometimes labels are applied to a person or an idea in an attempt to avoid talking about said idea or discredit that person. Sub-topic - humans apply labels so they can more easily process data.

"Crazy" "peak oilers" would be such an example. By attaching the label of "crazy" you hope to discredit "peak oil". Or, me calling the Congress "delusional" as we all know that the US Congress all works for the citizens and are not in any way delusional. If the label "delusional" was to be successfully applied to Congress - well, how would Congress look?

Other hot button issues would be child porn or drugs.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kim-mance/teachers-pop-up-porn-nigh_b_1457...
http://www.aclu.org/drug-law-reform/aclu-files-lawsuit-against-camden-po...
(Ha! Who the heck am I kidding? Like the above drug issue would be discussed!?!?!)

(and once Ron weighs in on the label of "conspiracy theories" I'll post the link to http://www.newworldorderreport.com/News/tabid/266/ID/980/33-Conspiracy-T... )

It is unlikely that the war in Iraq was about "stealing" Iraq's oil. More likely it was about "ensuring access" to Iraq's oil. Bush and Cheney were most likely fine with paying for it, as long as the US controlled the access. And of course, any oil produced would be done by the big oil companies, not by the US, making the deceit that much more opaque.

DD

There's a certain level of education that enables one the think systematically, a level of mind agility that instills enough confidence to actually understand that the sky is falling or prove to ones satisfaction that it isn't. Understanding v believing. While very few folks fully understand very few subjects, I believe that there is a point where rationalization become rational thought, the courage/need to seek rational answers v accepting dogma.

I don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand that acheiving inter-gallactic travel by humans would be extremely problematic.

While very few folks fully understand very few subjects, I believe that there is a point where rationalization become rational thought, the courage/need to seek rational answers v accepting dogma.

If your education consists of facts, then your field of view narrows to dogma. If you are taught concepts and a macro view, then your field of view widens and strengthen as a philosopher's view would, with a framework for explaining life. As the information firehose explodes, the need for this philosophical framework on which to hang facts and examples increases. Otherwise we can't make sense of the world, and devolve to explanations of magic and powerful others. That's why religion is so important. We need a new religion for those who'll never get it. Back to the druids, in some new form.

Truth is a state of mind in which there is no contradiction. A person perceives his idea as true because he has heard no contradiction. The less one knows, the easier it is to be dogmatic and to be sure that what one knows is true. We tend to defend dogmatically as true the things we are taught, whereas the things we learn from experience and experiments tend to be properly couched in sometimes-contradictory reality (Odum).

Most of this comes out of the wash as a priori.

IF you going to frame the world with some over arcing mindset you might as well decide you have the right to teach peak oil as a sound theory and be done with it.

if one feels strongly enough just tell them "how it is" from a position of authority

You would like to think so

The thing is this for children and adults... for all of us it comes down to deferring to some authority we trust.

At some point on many a subject I have halted my enquiry and trusted someone who I judge as having greater wisdom/knowledge/power. They form my world view

certainly includes oil depletion

In Children's case they have a reduced range of choices.

you point about some breakthrough level of education requires some thought and while instinctively I would agree I have doubts.

Is a box or critical thinking tricks "free will" as it were? its not a semantic or philosophical point of contention. A certain way of thinking and approach is instilled in us. Especially as world views and philosophical approaches to scientific opinion have some political component. Often critical thinking is applied discriminately to produce preordained conclusions. by adults clearly demonstrating a liberal education.

"keep an open mind" well how open? open enough to realise you are too ignorant to have an informed opinion?

I need to think about this.

One thing I have found is that you can keep an open mind, but be set in your ways as well. You have a thershold you won't cross, but you will listen to another's opinion on a subject and not try to convince them that your opinion is better than theirs.

For a child, usually they have an open mind to begin with, it is us adults who tend to close it for them, we tell them by our actions and our teachings to close it at a certain point. Otherwise they'd learn all the taboo subjects by the time they hit 7.

What we could teach children is being twisted by the sheer volume of everything that goes on in their worlds, just look at the amount of TV a child has seen by the time they are 7, then think about everything that they could of seen, think about that for a few seconds before you even talk about anything.

I know that I did not watch a lot of TV while I grew up, at least not until I was older than 8. But I know what watching TV is like because of my first wife and what her daughter was exposed to via a TV. I can't fathom what it must be like in a regular household where the TV is on almost 24 hours a day, or the internet always on for someone to just play around on.

Having an open mind is something that is reduced to just words in most cases, as is kinda pointed out by how opinionated we all are on this forum at times.

Lots of thinking needs to be done on this subject and not all of it matters much unless we can do some good by our influencing of others, more of the same ole same ole, won't help much.

Don't get me started about testing for testings sake that the US school systems seem to have degraded too recently.

Charles,
BIoWebScape designs for a better fed and housed future.

saying I think children should be taught to think for themselves is somewhat glib.

It is also completely accurate. Thinking for oneself includes the concept of a good understanding of the basics involved, how science works including examining the empirical data available, forming a hypothesis, experimentation, testing the results for significance, etc etc.

would you be in favour of teaching a form of extreme skepticism to children. "Do not believe projections or estimates that are not derived from near 100% sampling" A mindset children should be encouraged to have?
yes or no?

You ask multiple questions, some of which are the standard loaded "have you stopped beating your wife yet' stuff.

Poor form. You want a yes/no answer, ask a yes/no question without presumptions of 100% sampling (certainly something I haven't said a word about and which presumes far more about you than me) and then you pretend the answer is a binary solution set? Ask a proper question and I'll answer it, otherwise, have you stopped beating your spouse yet? Yes/No please.

No I haven't stopped beating my spouse...[work it out. it is the correct answer for my situation]

I apologise if the question came across as sarky but i dont see any substance here.

The 100% question was easily answered with a no which then easily leads on to notions of significant data.

the problem I have with your position it is it asymmetrical. If i teach 11yr old school kids there are 400 billion stars in the Milky way how much information do I need to add to explain how that was calculated or the sampling freq.

Should that not be taught as a best known fact?

how much of the sky is sampled to produce that fact? how many stars?

how is the age of the earth calculated?

what is the future life span of the sun? the earth?

the age of the Roman waterfronts discovered at sugar quay?

the population of the world in 2050?

the demographics of Iran in 2025?

how are these things calculated?

how reasonable is it to claim they are inaccurate based on sampling or modeling issues?

which predictions(any not just these examples) do you think are credible and why?

thats a good question state a socio-economic prediction of at least 5 years into the future that you have faith in?

can be anything? do you apply the same criteria to it as you would to accessible/OIP oil reserve models?

how many statistically based "facts" do you accept and why?

the problem I have with your position it is it asymmetrical

I am a heuristic kind of guy. If the answer isn't expressed well by a normal distribution, I am more than happy to express it using a skewed one.

how many statistically based "facts" do you accept and why?

I accept many statistically based facts. Others I do not. Do you have a specific one in mind to discuss so that random generalities don't interfere with the conversation?

Since this is about teaching kids we should consider discussing that human reaction times are asymmetric. Even the simplest & shortest tasks show asymmetry, with much longer tails than you would expect.

According to the most accepted cognitive science theory, the reason for the asymmetry is very easy to understand; especially if you read and understand my mathematical ramblings. And everything follows from this.

I accept many statistically based facts. Others I do not. Do you have a specific one in mind to discuss so that random generalities don't interfere with the conversation?

well no not especially. I was hoping you could give us some examples you accept so we could compare their providence.. If I provide something you may not have faith in it so its hard for us to see what sorts of statistical based facts you give credence too.

if statistical models of oil field distributions are unsound for what ever reason why is statistical fact "X"(your choice) acceptable?

what makes one ok and the other not?

Is it ok to teach kids that there is 400 billion stars in the Milky Way?

if statistical models of oil field distributions are unsound for what ever reason why is statistical fact "X"(your choice) acceptable?

It might not be. In this instance my first choice would be to decide if I needed a distribution of reservoir sizes in the first place. If I did, and I wanted to take Webs approach as my basis, I would need to consider how, and if, I could convert a partial distribution of economically or technically recoverable volume sizes into a full one of reservoir sizes, and if that was even possible, and if it was, to what level of certainty. Keeping track of the uncertainty in an exercise like this can be critical.

As far as the stars in the Milky Way, I am not familiar with how that number was generated. Right off the bat, I assume no deterministic answer could possibly be accurate, even if someone counted them all there would be an error bar and therefore a distributive answer rather than a single number. However, given that distributive answer, I would consider it acceptable to teach to children.

If someone generated that number by sampling fish in the ocean and pretending these two populations were the same thing, I would not.

I think the recoverable portion starts to narrow down quickly, doesn't it? It sits around 35% as I recall.

There must be a teachable analogy to this. Like spilling milk on a deep shag carpet. What fraction is drinkable?

As to the other point, PDF's don't have a concept of absolute count. You can reason about counts from samples though, and by keeping track of a volume survey you could come reasonably close.

For example, knowing the lake distribution PDF and given a rather small cross-section and samples of lake areas from that cross-section, I can extrapolate to the lake area of the whole world.

I think the recoverable portion starts to narrow down quickly, doesn't it? It sits around 35% as I recall.

You mean except where it isn't? Say, 10% at the Lisburne Pool of Prudhoe Bay? Or perhaps the Tulare in Kern River, where it approaches 75%?

For example, knowing the lake distribution PDF and given a rather small cross-section and samples of lake areas from that cross-section, I can extrapolate to the lake area of the whole world.

Which is why sampling from actual reservoir size would be useful. Lets say, just for a second, that you actually had that information, for the GOM. What makes you think the structures of the GOM are the same size distribution as, say, some sub-salt play? While they both might best be fit with a lognormal, if the mean or median has shifted by a few billion cubic feet of reservoir size, it might be the same type of distribution, but now you can't claim it will work to describe the reservoir sizes of the sub-salt?

The changes forced upon the reservoir size by geology and tectonics would make sure of it...its one of those heuristic things.

You mean except where it isn't? Say, 10% at the Lisburne Pool of Prudhoe Bay? Or perhaps the Tulare in Kern River, where it approaches 75%?

Thank you, Average=(10%+75%)/2=42.5% which is relatively close to 35%. You made my statistical point.

Which is why sampling from actual reservoir size would be useful. Lets say, just for a second, that you actually had that information, for the GOM.

My original work on GOM field sizes
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2010/06/gom-reservoir-size-distribution...
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2010/07/gom-maximum-production-rate-and...

The rule is that as you aggregate different classes of structures together, the entropic characteristics come to the forefront as you free up the constraints. You can see that with lake classification; when you look at dish lakes vs channel lakes vs valley lakes, you get a different distribution than when you put the aggregate together. I am pointing out interesting aspects of the way that nature works. It works by filling up a state space described by endless variety and seeming chaos, but the outcome is very simple and very predictable.

I am not surprised by any of this, because I have seen this same behavior in just about any discipline of science you would care to name. Geology is nothing special, and entropy rules.

Thank you, Average=(10%+75%)/2=42.5% which is relatively close to 35%. You made my statistical point.

And you confusing the current 10% recovery efficiency of the Lisburne pool with its final recovery efficiency makes mine. Saleri points out that not much more than a 10% incremental change in recovery efficiency is worth another trillion recoverable barrels or so. The average you calculated from the endpoints I gave you is almost that much higher already than your initial estimate of recovery efficiency as a gross average. Congratulations, your new average allows the human species to recover yet another 750 billion barrels in reserve growth from discovered fields. Have you put this into your model yet to see what that extra 750 billion barrels might do to your 2005 prediction of peak?

It works by filling up a state space described by endless variety and seeming chaos, but the outcome is very simple and very predictable.

Well, thats what you keep saying. And then I ask how to use something like your reserve growth model on one field or another, and your general response of "its so very simple and predictable" becomes "well I didn't mean it would actually provide a real answer". Sounds like we just define "simple and predictable" differently.

Well, then you lied about what the 10% stood for.

Can't argue much with a liar. Something that most kids learn pretty quickly.

Your inexperience with the realities of how recovery efficiencies can change with respect to time and technology doesn't make me a liar. Maybe learning a few of these little heuristic details ain't all bad?

My hobby is taking limited amounts of information and being able to reason about it. The discipline doesn't really matter. This works pretty well when you consider that half the people will lie about data in one direction and the other half of the people will lie about the data in the other direction. The average turns out about right. Consider yourself part of the mix.

MNFTIU

If I was charged with defending your position I would not use your answer as a primary defense. Because its no different than estimating the ratio of red giants to total star count or main sequence stars or some other ratio subset.

which is assumed in the distributive modeling in the first place

why is that different that URR vs OOIP?

I would be inclined to argue the ramifications of the error margin in significant socio-economic terms are far more critical in estimating the OOIP and the URR

ie the critical nature of the ongoing uncertainty as you call it has a different context [in meaning] via its second order effects.

being wrong about the number of stars by 100% is not a critical blow to galactic modeling in most cases

being wrong about URR 100% should effect peak estimations, maybe?

but notice here the actual degree of margin that is critical is somewhat debatable as boundaries on URR EG time critical

ie the URR with in a certain time period

if I wait 400 million yrs the URR may be much bigger? yes.

however this effect can be easily imagined in the shorter term

lets say Antarctica is a thin lid under the ice sitting on a continent of light sweet how is that different from us not being able to see the other side of the galaxy [say] yet making a estimate of total star count from a perspective of exploitable oil in the next 50 yrs. would a trillion barrels under the south pole be that relevant?

how reasonable is it to imagine the distribution of stars on the blind side of the galactic core is made up of a distribution of dwarf star types uncharacteristic of the visible side so much so that the star count is out by 1000%?

you are a heuristic kind of guy... that doesn't mean back of envelope calculations are by default not required of you to be taken seriously if you decide to take a deeply contrarian stance in the face of quantitive modeling.

How many oil fields of uncharacteristic size and distribution have to be hiding for the current distributive models to be of no relevance?

if the models are flawed as you say you should be able to create a possible back of the envelope model for the nearest fit but still too off the mark... in other words what is you benchmark for accuracy

where is that line between valid and invalid

if you are rational and honest that place must have some substantive form in your mind.

or you are just saying "because I say so" or "i reckon, which is ok but hardly impressive when countering the sorts of analysis presented

How many oil fields of uncharacteristic size and distribution have to be hiding for the current distributive models to be of no relevance?

How would you like to define relevance?

thats your problem isn't it

you tell us?

you are the one taking the mindset to task... which is not a cowardly thing to do and I do respect that..
I have deferred to "experts" who I judge to have greater expertise. Put me straight

perhaps you are correct? I have asked that question

Are you Mr rebuttal... or lack of one?

How many oil fields of uncharacteristic size and distribution have to be hiding for the current distributive models to be of no relevance?

you tell us?

Okay. I define relevance as follows:

"Societies concern and desire for inventoried estimates of oil reserves to cover 3 generations of use at current rates."

The number of fields "hiding" required to render current distributive models irrelevant is 1.

Midi,
Part of the problem is that we are having logical discussions in a discipline that is so used to rote learning that they do not know how to respond. The more and more I interact with geologists and see how they think, the more I am convinced that such rote learning has completely stifled any creative impulses they may have.

If the discussion isn't centered around some cookbook recipe or some folk wisdom, they are out of their element. I really have no other explanation for this. If for example, electrical engineers or physicists faced a problem where a shortage of electrons was looming, I sense that they would get to the bottom of it. But with geologists, its like hearing crickets. You would think that someone over they years would do something more substantial than Hubbert or Deffeyes. But then again, when you read about Deffeyes calling the class he teaches "Rocks for Jocks" you realize that Deffeyes is more of an entertainer than anything else. His own analysis is so sloppy and informal that you can just cringe.

On the other hand, climate scientists do show some initiative.

Geology and petroleum engineering are the last vestiges of the scientific guild, where knowledge is carefully metered out from the village elders to the craftsmen, who are careful not to rock the boat.

Really, there is no other way to explain this attitude.

Is it really that systemic?

got to be plenty of statistically savy geologists who broadly agree with these models

good old Colin's one!

not to sure about this

I always got the impression that Campbell just used instinct, or else came up with numbers without really showing his work.
Too opaque for my tastes. That's also what gets these guys in trouble. They make predictions and then can't defend their work.

If this was all phrased in terms of baseball statistics or fantasy football, then we would be on our way with a certain segment of the schoolboy population.

Some kids learn that a player is good by watching him play.
Other kids learn that a player is good by looking at his stats.
The kids that learn by stats would actually understand what sampling is. But I don't anyone teaches the kids to think for themselves in this matter, after all it's only a game.

I understand exactly where Midi is coming from with this question.

Ask a proper question and I'll answer it,

Really?

Huh. I'll note that you did not mention honesty or nonsensical answers.

Not that lies havn't been shown to be OK.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/joshgerstein/0810/9th_Circuit_finds_a_righ...
http://www.relfe.com/media_can_legally_lie.html

WHT

That patterns repeat is a truism that needs more teaching. For me I love looking for patterns and this is a new one for me. Thanks.

A teacher who has an elite group has already said that the peak oil/ peak resources lessons he teaches are "like water on a duck's back".Nothing penetrated, the students just didn't really get it.

Par for the course. When somebody like Lumina who has been educated in a couple of the finest universities in the world says that NONE of his colleagues at the top of the business heap get it, WE SHOULD GET IT.

But we don't;as agroup, we are like the parent of one kid out of step with the marching band who thinks that the marching band, rather than his kid, is out of step with the music.

The fact that we happen to be right really doesn't have anything much to do with what the rest of the world thinks.

The world doesn't want to know, and will refuse to be told.

But at some point the hurricane of peak oil recognition I mentioned a couple of days back must and will finally arrive.There will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending of hair.Sack cloth with ashes will become very fashionable.

There will be a very big and very steep initial step down on Aangel's step curve for sure; I just hope the first step isn't the special case of there being ONLY ONE STEP down, all the way to the bottom due to a widescale hot war or a fast collapse of civil authority in most of the world.

There are not enough cops and soldiers ANYWHERE to maintain order if things get really bad, with the possible exception of a couple of places such as North Korea......

But at some point the hurricane of peak oil recognition I mentioned a couple of days back must and will finally arrive.There will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending of hair.Sack cloth with ashes will become very fashionable.

Err, nope.

There will be a great blaming of others and refusal to give up the assumptions which were taught at an early age. Feet will be stamped, lies will be told, opportunities will be missed. 'Solutions' which are obvious and simple and wrong will be implemented.

We don't have a society or a global environment where sackcloth and ashes will have much of a chance - repentance is soooo last century.

As a high school teacher, I am _glad_ I am in a position to share the story of peak oil. If anyone wants to accuse me of being alarmist, I point them to World Energy Outlook 2008, the UK government reports on peak oil, the Hirsch report, and US Department of Defense reports on Peak Oil.

My students are generally receptive about the message. I disagree with the other poster's point that they should give up their dreams. You may have to modify your dreams a bit, but I still think an advanced degree is valuable. I think those whose message to our kids is "Your future is doomed" are ignorant, have tunnel vision, and grossly underestimate the capacity of young people to hardship.

As for the adults, I seem to recall someone who was offering a million or two dollars to spread the message. I can't seem to find the news on TOD anymore, so someone please help me out. Lets see if this guy's plan succeeds.

As a high school teacher, I am _glad_ I am in a position to share the story of peak oil. If anyone wants to accuse me of being alarmist, I point them to World Energy Outlook 2008, the UK government reports on peak oil, the Hirsch report, and US Department of Defense reports on Peak Oil.

Interesting. As a teacher, would you also consider it reasonable in the interests of objectivity to introduce them to all the times these scares of resource depletion have been claimed before? The USGS claims of peak in 1919, State Geologists of the "old" Middle East (Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania) in 1875 and 1886 predicting the running out of oil (and natural gas), the fear created by the USGS when they predicted in 1909 that only 26 years of oil supply were left, and President Taft creating the Naval Petroleum Oil Shale Reserve to cover the shortages expected...in 1912? Do you introduce ALL of Hirschs work, including his claims of oil shortage and crisis...back in 1988? Do you make them read what the head of the Petroleum Adminstration for War head Harold Ickes wrote about running out of oil....in 1943? Do you discuss the end of cheap oil....which happened some 30 years before Colin Campbell wrote his article for Scientific America?

As a scientist I often find it necessary to understand as much as possible about both sides of an issue...it is necessary prior to making any honest decision. If teachers feed our children only some limited historical perspective on this topic we are honing a path designed to arrive at a particular conclusion, NOT allowing them to utilize critical thinking and/or the scientific method to decide for themselves what the possibility of some of these modern claims of shortage, pestilence and deprivation might be.

It could be argued that this is what we, as humans, might want? I would be forced to disagree on general scientific grounds, but if the goal is to design a belief system to instill in our children the desire to run away from fossil fuels, at all costs, as quickly as possible, a certain designed indoctrination might be socially acceptable (albeit scientifically unpalatable)?

I do tell them that scares have happened before yes. Not all of it, as you've pointed some I haven't heard of. I tell them about the 1970s oil scare and my remembrance of it. I tell them about my parents who lived through WWII and their hardship without food and water. I also tell them that most of the neighboring regions of Southeast Asia is much, much poorer than we are, and THEY get a life and education without using so much resources.

I do tell them that scares have happened before yes.Not all of it, as you've pointed some I haven't heard of.

That certainly is encouraging. What was discouraging were the references you mentioned, all concentrated on only the most current claims of peak oil. Part of any critical thinking exercise on this topic would be to reference the sources of information which claimed the same things many years ago as well, from Lesley to Ehrlich, and to understand why the four horsemen of the apocalypse routine doesn't always come about as planned.

Given the time and energy limits of both student and teacher, it is most common in all subjects to teach and learn the best current information on a topic. In medicine, for instance, very little time is spent on the "magic egg" and the theory of the humors, leaving more time for the evolving best current theories and treatments. The history of a subject can provide a deeper understanding of many aspects of the subject, our cultural evolution, how our minds work, etc, but it should not be mistaken for an education in the subject itself.

That's not to malign critical thinking in any way, but if critical thinking must precede education, and if the history of a subject must precede the subject itself, very few will gain the information they should have to become useful and effective.

The history of a subject can provide a deeper understanding of many aspects of the subject, our cultural evolution, how our minds work, etc, but it should not be mistaken for an education in the subject itself.

Completely true. But lets take a peak oil specific example of how the history effects the modern claims and understanding. Often you will see the claim that "easy oil is gone" as a condition of the most recent peak oil environment. This ignores the history of oil development because easy oil was disappearing by about 1901 and new technologies were required to get to it. Another round of yet even less "easy oil" happened again in the 1940's with the invention and application of yet more technologies.

Without this historical knowledge the claim "all the easy oil is gone" is implied to be a modern event, when in reality we are several iterations away from the original "easy oil" and have moved into progressively "harder" oils several times now. So sure...the history shouldn't be mistaken as an education itself, but without knowledge of it, the claim of easy oil is bogus on its face. Without knowing the history, it is difficult to any noob to know that. These types of examples exist all over the resource depletion debate, and knowledge of it is quite important if the goal is to understand the intricacies of resource depletion rather than just memorize whatever the current dogma happens to be.

OK, Res-G-2 please tell me how and when the price of gas will return to $2/gal and remain there for the foreseeable future so that our children and grandchildren will not see further economic hardship.

The price of oil is what matters, not reserves, not flow, not "easy" or "hard" oil.

As an engineer by education and now running my own business I know that science can tell us the physics of how to solve a problem, but not the economic aspects of each solution. This is where you fall short in every arguement you have made today.

The price of oil is what matters, not reserves, not flow, not "easy" or "hard" oil

I'm more prone to think that what matters is "Net Energy (outputs less inputs)/Population" = economic potential". Or some such formulation. Price is an effect with many causes, as is the flow rate of net energy availability, but one can be manipulated more or less freely, while the other has relatively hard limits.

OK, Res-G-2 please tell me how and when the price of gas will return to $2/gal and remain there for the foreseeable future so that our children and grandchildren will not see further economic hardship.

Again, the loaded question. This one is easy. If using gasoline priced higher than $2/gal is an economic hardship, and you wish to alleviate this economic hardship, I recommend changing your behavior to require less...or better yet..none!

Simple solution, covers the parameters required, works for both you and your progeny, I'd say we have a winner! I've said it before, but for those who haven't seen it yet, when the solution to a problem is a relatively simple change in behavior, it really isn't the problem you think it is.

Rulz,
You are getting increasingly off-base.
I'm a farmer, so let's change gasoline to diesel.
You recommend that when diesel gets too expensive, I and my neighbouring farmers (very few of us left, by the way) should change our behaviour to require less or no diesel fuel.
With net farm income in USA and Canada at its lowest level since the Depression for most ag sectors, I can assure that we are not wasting a drop of diesel or gasoline.

In fact, the work done by a tractor is probably the best, the most visible, the most unassailable use of petroleum that exists. When a tractor moves across a field, pulling a haybine (which is rotated off the PTO, which is itself a marvel to behold), the results are obvious: 9' of closely cut hay, laid neatly in a swath, within seconds.
I cannot imagine following your advice, getting off my tractor (a Ford 5000, now entering its 5th decade of service) and trying to cut that hay with horses or a scythe.

Simple solution? A simple change in behaviour?
What farmers do is not "behaviour," like going for an adolescent joy-ride.
Your thinking is more than "literal," it's naive.
(Sorry if I'm sounding rude, but this is increasingly annoying.)

You recommend that when diesel gets too expensive, I and my neighbouring farmers (very few of us left, by the way) should change our behaviour to require less or no diesel fuel.

That was simply an easy behavorial change which came out first related to where a large fraction of liquid fuels go, which is random transport, particularly by Americans.

Certainly you would gain a competitive advantage if you could produce more, or even the same, amount of product while using less liquid fuels, yes sirree.

With net farm income in USA and Canada at its lowest level since the Depression for most ag sectors, I can assure that we are not wasting a drop of diesel or gasoline.

I just drove to Alaska. The farm trucks parked at the Quality Inn in Grand Prairie, Alberta for a homecoming dance, and the miles they drove in from the farms, you consider that they used less than a drop transporting their exquisite daughters to the convention center for the dance? They weren't attached to trailers hauling equipment, or a combine, or whatever else they did during the day, no, they were puttering down to the local homecoming dance. While apparently not wasting a drop of fuel!

Sorry, just an example of how when you think you "aren't wasting a drop", there is still room for efficiency improvements.

Simple solution? A simple change in behaviour?
What farmers do is not "behaviour," like going for an adolescent joy-ride.
Your thinking is more than "literal," it's naive.

Not in the least. As oil is demanded less for random idiot American personal transport, one of the areas where it will still have value is in industrial situations, such as tractor fuel and chemical feedstocks. Fortunately for farmers, those of us who can use less, by using less, stretch the supply just that much farther for farmers who then don't have to worry about buying a hybrid tractor, or CNG tractors, or electric tractors, or what have you, any time soon. And considering that diesel, a perfectly nice product derived from natural gas, I would say that you are safe in your supply for much longer than anyone currently expects, considering the sheer volume of that particular resource.

Rulz,

I'm wondering how you sorted out the regular pick-ups from the farm pickups at that dance in Alaska.
Jeez, I didn't even know that Alaska had that amy farmers.
Maybe you can let us know what they grow up there.

Second, you say that our farm diesel, a perfectly nice product (you are correct about that part, nothing like it) comes from natural gas?
Since both the USA and Canada are a decade post-peak in conventional NatGas production, you must be referring to shale gas.
Have you ever heard of the documentary, Gasland, or do you not believe all that nonsense about people's wells going bad, either?
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52963

I'm wondering how you sorted out the regular pick-ups from the farm pickups at that dance in Alaska.

Grande Prairie Alberta. Do you realize how many trucks, sitting in the fields, moving stuff around, parked in front of the farm house, I got to see driving from Edmonton to Dawson Creek, BC? And how much of that is farmland? In the farmland I grew up in, farm trucks weren't allowed on any but local roads, had special plates, we used them for hauling the hay trailer around, moving things, that sort of stuff. Nowadays, the trucks in Alberta are usually diesel, quite a few 5th wheel setups (tons of horse and cattle trailers), not as many ratty ones as I would have thought, but perhaps a decent farm truck up there ain't the old straight 6 Ford I grew up with? Not as many stake beds as I would have expected. Is it fair that I got to see how everyone was dressed who was actually IN the truck? The only other people I've seen who dress like farmers do tend to be welltenders for oil and gas companies. But their trucks are usually decked out different. Do you think I confused the two?

Have you ever heard of the documentary, Gasland, or do you not believe all that nonsense about people's wells going bad, either?

I am familiar with the movie. I have consulted for state and federal agencies on various issues related to the procedure. I have an opinion but this probably isn't the time to discuss it, it is not a minor discussion.

Rulz

You mention Hirsch's claims of shortage & crisis back in '88.
I'm assuming that you are referring to his article in the March 20, 1987 issue of Science (please provide link to 88 article if I'm on the wrong track here).

According to the abstract, Hirsch was concerned about many of the same things that he's concerned about today (and which he will no doubt touch on at ASPO-Washington this week):
- unstable oil price outlook
- declining US production
- increasing dependence on imports
- the "huge costs and long periods of time required to change our energy system"
- "the nation's generally short-term orientation"

Abstract here:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/235/4795/1467

You are correct about the long history of false alarms (crying wolf), but that history is hardly evidence that future alarms will be unwarranted.
We are dealing with a reasonably finite substance, and in the end, the wolf does come.

Please explain your point about the end of cheap oil occurring 30 years before Campbell's SciAm article.

I'm assuming that you are referring to his article in the March 20, 1987 issue of Science (please provide link to 88 article if I'm on the wrong track here).

Did I get the year wrong? I apologize, my reference may be coming from the response section to that article because he got pasted (if I recall correctly) pretty good by Youngquist. But thats probably the one, yes. Hirsch has been seeing oil crisis way before he wrangled some DOE money to do it all over again...with magic triangles!

You are correct about the long history of false alarms (crying wolf), but that history is hardly evidence that future alarms will be unwarranted.

You are perfectly correct. So would you offer your opinion as to how many MORE times, or how many MORE centuries, we must wait before these claims finally bear fruit?

Please explain your point about the end of cheap oil occurring 30 years before Campbell's SciAm article.

Sure. Hirsch, R.L., 2005, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, pp-72 Figure A-2

Go check out what happened right there around 1970, and whats been happening ever since. The trend is unmistakable. Colin should have checked before he wrote the title to his Scientific America article, but maybe it was just a catchy title, certainly better than "Just another claim of dire consequences because of oil shortages" or some such.

As for predicting when an oil supply crisis will hit, I have never had any interest in doing that, and don't plan to start now.
Whether the eventual supply crunch hits me, my son, or his kids, is not the point:
I would certainly take no satisfaction in dodging it myself, only to have it hit our grandkids.

As for the price spike, you are correct, I do see that in Hirsch's graph.
But Campbell's article was in 1998, and the spike is around 1978, which is only 20 years, not 30.
Or are you referring to some other document by Campbell?

Also, we should not confuse a temporary price spike due to geopolitics with a more sustained price elevation (which we've had for the past half-decade, and which coincides with the plateau of conventional oil production at around 74 mbpd).

What do you mean by Hirsch's magic triangles?

But Campbell's article was in 1998, and the spike is around 1978, which is only 20 years, not 30.
Or are you referring to some other document by Campbell?

The trough of all time lowest real crude price was early 1970's according to Hirsch, on other real price graphs I've seen it shows up as about 1969-1970. Campbells work was late 90's, I'll take your measure of 1998, so the number I generally keep at hand is 30 years, rather than 20. In either case, it would have been better if he had checked first so that an event nearly 3 decades in the past wouldn't catch him out like that.

And I confused nothing, the energy crisis of the 70's were real, we all know why they happened now, and we were told by our President THEN that it was because we were running out. Sure, Jimmy was an idiot when it came to resources, but to show that peak oil this time (your preference, 2005 or 2008) is any more real than the scares back then, we must first consider if this is all just history repeating itself. Again.

Hirschs 2005 DOE report uses triangles to predict his "do this within this timeframe and the world is good, do this in another timeframe and the world is bad". A single glance at the initial and sometimes decade long growth of everything from the use of crude to the rate at which wind farms can be built to generate electricity should have been enough to force him to use non linear equations. Limits of Growth certainly knew about them 3 or 4 decades earlier, Hirsch isn't a dummy, he would have known about them. The linear nature of that particular shape makes certain that no effects which are obviously non linear can get into the answer and destroy the entire "OH NOES! THE END IS NIGH!" message. History matters in this story, Hirsch was seeing energy crisis more nearly 20 years ago. When that one didn't materialize, there was a waiting period for people to forget, and then when the time was right, fire up the same conclusion, and assemble a different means to the same end. Like magic the triangles appear!

I have a hard time believing your claim that there was a price surge 30 years before Campbell's article, which would mean 1968.
If you have evidence of that being the start of a sustained oil price spike, please let us know.
Mainstream data indicates that oil prices were very low through through the late 80s and throughout the 90s.

Can you provide page references for HIrsch's triangles?
In the interim, I'm reminded of his "notional" sketch of "oil exporter withholding scenario" which although primitively sketched is spot-on in terms of highlighting the concern/concept.

You are certainly correct about Hirsch not being a dummy: he takes great pains to ensure that his observations are carefully worded, solution-focused and non-alarmist.
Please remind yourself of HIrsch's credibility when you are tempted to dismiss all PO analysts as alarmist fools.

I have a hard time believing your claim that there was a price surge 30 years before Campbell's article, which would mean 1968.

I provided the reference previously. Hirschs graph pegs the trough a few years later, but as I explained, there are others which shift the trough around just a little. And I certainly said nothing about price spikes, just the overall trend of ever increasing real prices. Its fairly obvious on the referenced Figure. A-2.

Can you provide page references for HIrsch's triangles?

Sure. Starts on Page 50. Calls them "wedges". Demonstration of profile in Figure VIII-1, Page 51.

Overall I am very unhappy with the simplistic nature of the model, he was undoubtedly paid enough to do that report to come up with something adequate. A couple of magic triangles ain't it.

Please remind yourself of HIrsch's credibility when you are tempted to dismiss all PO analysts as alarmist fools.

I didn't say Hirsch had any credibility. I said he certainly is smart enough to know why he shouldn't have used the linear growth dictated by some simple triangle escalation when decades earlier others already understood, and used, non linear equations when modeling such things.

I find his 2005 report very interesting. Hirsch did some things in that report very well, nuances which aren't easy to spot unless he was involved in the process, and on the example I'm thinking of, I know he wasn't. He also wrote some things in there that were bad assumptions, which even a cursory examination or investigation would have revealed to be otherwise. Because I respect his intelligence I find it difficult to believe this happened by accident.

You really are a funny guy RGR, the point is that the US INDEED DID PASS ITS PEAK IN 71 !!

Do you at least agree with that, or for you the US 71 production peak is just a little bump on anotherwise probably still increasing production level ? (one never knows, with ya ...)

Moreover, the truth about the so called 70ies "oil embargo" is that oil shortages started --in the US-- due to domestic production falling, and the oil majors were IN FAVOR of OPEC cutting its prod so as to increase oil price and be able to invest in more expensive oil (typically North sea oil and Alaska or Gulf of Mexico) (as well as increase their profit right away), plus Saudi oil always remained available to the US (towards vietnam especially)

Good doc about that on arte TV lately, with an interview of the guy that did the audit of US prod when it started falling, and later dealt with the Saudis and price aspect, can't remember his name now, will check, but he is very clear about that

You really are a funny guy RGR, the point is that the US INDEED DID PASS ITS PEAK IN 71 !!

So should we teach that to the children? Would you recommend teaching the other 3 forecasts the same guy made at the same time as well, or would that interfere with their proper indoctrination?

Yes, we should teach that to our kids. You were asked if you dispute it.

"Other Forecasts" has nothing to do with it. 1970s US Oil production is a historical fact, not a forecast.

Why is Texas all of the sudden being so Coy and Demure with her untapped riches? Or are those mean hippies still forcing her to keep them all buried?

"Other Forecasts" has nothing to do with it. 1970s US Oil production is a historical fact, not a forecast.

A US peak oil happened in 1970. It will remain the US peak until another ones comes along. If no other one comes along, it will stand, if another one does, it will not. Same as US natural gas production. Same as the 1979 global peak. I certainly never dispute peak oils, they happen often enough to be difficult to ignore.

Glad we cleared that up.

US reserve growth has a whole lotta 'potential', I can tell you that much. But not much else..

Yes nice to have that cleared up from RGR :)

By the way the name of the guy I was referring to is James E. Akins the video of the interview was on youtube but removed apparently (link I had at least)

Edit :

Interview starts at 19:00 below (in several parts) infortunately the dubbing makes it tough to get I guess :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xewm92_la-face-cachee-du-petrole-2-2-le...

(note : the reopen911 logo or something at the beginning of this vid is the "poster mark" and not part of this documentary at all)

US reserve growth has a whole lotta 'potential', I can tell you that much. But not much else..

You mean, except for the part which has already been converted to gasoline and sits in gas tanks of cars all across America right now?

..

It would be difficult to decide what aspects of peak oil to discuss to students due to the array of views concerning the implications (especially in the near-term) of peak oil. On top the divergence of views that exists in even the most knowledgeable of circles it would take hours to properly disseminate all the interrelated pieces from thermodynamics to EROEI, limits to growth, complex systems theory, fractional reserve banking, etc. I personally believe Chris Martenson does a fantastic job by avoiding the gloom, and focusing on keeping the audience captivated enough to go out and research for themselves. People are naturally aversive to having another individual explain to them why anything bad is going to happen, much less the collapse of industrial civilization. In my own experience attempting to inform professors, peers, family, and friends I have not yet convinced a single person to prepare in the slightest. Although, I have gotten several to agree with the data, analysis, and conclusions. Its pretty intense double think from my viewpoint, but I don't blame them. I'm 23 years old, and have performed a 45 minute PowerPoint lecture on Peak Oil for seminar. Everyone in the class that I talked to gave a glowing review, but by interacting with them it was clear that the topic was immediately purged from their minds once the class ended that day. I've personally come to the conclusion that the longer time goes on (and thus the more imminent the consequences) the less interested unaware people become because preparing requires such a drastic change from their desired reality. They'd rather be a wrong voice in a group of wrong voices than a solo correct one.

immediately purged from their minds

Why? Think about it. They heard you, understood what you said and likely agreed with you. Their thinking; I can not accept that this might be true therefore it is not.

We all need to maintain our feel good neurotransmitters. This is a basic need. The problem is that your fellow students can not imagine how to do this in a post peak oil world.

I couldn't agree more ryeguy. I sometimes wonder how it is my perception of peak oil would have evolved had my introduction to the subject been forced on me by a person as opposed to having stumbled upon an intriguing newspaper article when oil first hit $100 a barrel. In an alternate universe I can easily see myself having been quite turned off by the subject. I would have been one of the many people I can't comprehend!

how it is my perception

More likely, you are just one of those rare types that have a "healthy ego".

Talking about having a healthy Ego made me look up what a Healthy Ego was and I happened upon the below blog talking about the book Egonomics. I think I had heard about it before, but never really paid any attention to it.

Above/below the story I relate to about being the only one in a class full of others( all boys ) to know the right answer and stick to my guns about knowing even when they all thought I was wrong, is a sign I had a Healthy Ego and did not know it, or maybe I am really an EGO maniac, but I hope not.

http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/09/are-you-an-egom.html#tp

One of the thoughts in all this is that we would want to have children to have healthy Egos and be able to teach them how to keep them healthy along with teaching them about the world around them and how we are not where we were even 10 years ago, as far as energy and this other stuff pretains to, how we are growing so fast that soon we will be hitting walls where we can't expand without changing how we are doing things.

What Gail points out is that we really don't have a lot of time left to make choices on how we are going to teach people and kids in this case being the topic, we don't have decades, we might have handfulls of years. If your child is 1 to 5 this is going to be their teenage years and those are normally the hardest for most people to adjust too because of all the changes that go on in them. Just think, you as parents and teachers have a lot to do in the time given.

Charles,
BioWebScape designs for a better fed and housed world.

Not sure where to jump in here. I now have a regular lecture on Peak Everything that I give following one called Oil & Gas Basics. This is a marine geology course given to freshmen college graduate students and upper division geology and oceanography majors, with permission. I give some summary information on human population growth, reliance on fossil fuels for that exponential growth and even discuss several human population decline models and timing. Basic ecology, overshoot and carrying capacity are presented. If you can't break the really bad news to them yourself, just refer them to read a copy of William Catton's excellent book "Overshoot" (1980). Heinberg's books are good, and Hersch's new one sounds like it may contain much practical information.

The feedback I often get is anger that I've somehow missed a good alternative energy or was too dismissive of its chances. Sometimes it's wild optimism that nuclear fusion will save us. I suspect that these individuals, being smart and successful academics, are in general biding their time. They appear to be willing to continue BAU until they can't. There also appears to be a certain resignation that things could get real bad real fast, but how bad, even I who dwell upon this issue more than I probably should, do not know for sure. Humans have been through bottlenecks before, but our records are sparse. We live in very interconnected society now, so it will be hard to strike out on your own to save yourself and immediate family or group. I expect chaos that could be widespread in the "developed" countries. Hard to teach people how to prepare for that.

The feedback I often get is anger that I've somehow missed a good alternative energy or was too dismissive of its chances. Sometimes it's wild optimism that nuclear fusion will save us.

You mean....like Hubbert did back in 1956? I wouldn't characterize his 1956 work as "wild optimism" of course, more like studied scientific work showing the amount of nuke fuels available for thousands of years, but hey, what did HE know, right?

I believe Hubbert recanted his optimism about nuclear fission or fusion coming to the rescue when he studied the topic more closely and looked at the world uranium resources. I talk to friends and colleagues at the university here who are nuclear physicists. They are not optimistic about nuclear fusion, at least any time soon. It always seems to be about 30 - 50 years off into the future, on a receding horizon. We will soon be in an oil supply emergency, within this decade for sure, and very likely within a few years time. That is why I stated it as wild optimism.

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) or perhaps some other energy source could also ride to the rescue, but these solutions are at best temporary for a species in overshoot. The only solution for overshoot and degradation of the planet's carrying capacity is rapid loss of that species population to levels that are more sustainable. Those losses will be very, very large, in the multiple billions. There is also a nonzero chance that the offending species will become extinct, along with many others that are heading that way. This is not good news, I know. But it's the simple truth of the matter.

I believe Hubbert recanted his optimism about nuclear fission or fusion coming to the rescue when he studied the topic more closely and looked at the world uranium resources.

I believe "recant" isn't quite the right word, I've seen an interview where he expressed surprise that it hadn't worked out as he had predicted, and was much more bullish on solar by then. I have never seen him recant the resource estimates he made for the volumes of fuel available however.

We will soon be in an oil supply emergency, within this decade for sure, and very likely within a few years time.

Not really a tenable position. Peak oil itself (either in 2005 or 2008) was supposed to bring about just such an emergency and as we've already seen, there are now people running around thinking we're having yet ANOTHER peak in 2010. I have little confidence in anyones prediction of oil supply emergency at this point, be it US peak in 1922, running out in 1943, Jimmys "running out by the end of the 80's", or Hirschs oil crisis by the early 90's. Oil supply emergencys are as "just around the corner" as profitable oil shale development and nearly everything else in this debate.

As for what is "truth", I've already ventured an opinion on it earlier in this thread.

Fair enough on the usage of the word "recant". Hubbert was looking for something viable as a replacement, as nothing would imply, well, what we have going on here at the moment.

So you think there will be no oil supply emergency as production depletes? Interesting stance, but if you're implying that oil shale development is as likely, I think you are sadly mistaken. You seem to be stuck in the denial stage, as if you can debate your way to a happy and prosperous future. I guess one way to rationalize what's coming is to declare that demand will drop in relation to the oil supply. The drop could be gentle for some, especially those in a position to buy expensive oil or arrange for it to be taken off the market just for them to enjoy, say by exercising their military options. But in this case dropping demand would not be from switching to the alternatives that simply aren't there to keep us enjoying our present lifestyles, it would be from increasing austerity and conservation. Conservation has its limits, also. The big question for me at least, is just how much austerity can a society bear?

So you think there will be no oil supply emergency as production depletes?

Of course not. The modern age of oil depletion started in 1859, and we have already had many supply emergencies. It is reasonable to assume we shall have more in the future. I certainly made it through the last rationing and shortages I experienced in the 70's without the urge to cannibalize anyone, horde guns and gold, or some of the more extreme solutions proposed to the next "oil supply emergency".

The big question for me at least, is just how much austerity can a society bear?

As little as they have to? We are human after all, and austerity for austerities sake might work for a monk, but not many others.

RGR2, you're not dumb, just terribly ignorant. Interesting that you're old enough to recall the 1970's oil shocks. Let's add stubborn, too.

First, regarding those shocks, in the first one, circa 1973, gas rationing had many folks driving around, wasting gas going from one gas station line to the next to top off their tanks. There were many incidents of fights at the pumps over such actions as taking cuts in line, discovered favoritism, etc. (usual monkey business). In the second one, circa 1979, I recall a townhouse neighbor hoarding gasoline which he was keeping on his adjoining back deck, in large trash cans. As if that was not scary enough, he and his girlfriend were smokers. So there was indeed hoarding going on, but these were temporary shortages, not what is envisioned now.

I see you like to take the long historical view, but use the information like a propagandist. You seem to all too conveniently overlook the fact that we have reached or are soon reaching our technological limits for oil extraction at a reasonable, affordable to most folks, price. Discoveries peaked globally in the 1960-70s, and we are fast running out of new technology tricks to "squeeze the can" on the old giants. Have you seen Joules Burn's location maps of Saudi Aramco's wells in Ghawar over time? What does that changing distribution tell you? Have you heard of the Export Land Model discussed in depth here on TOD?

Regarding austerity, I completely agree with your comment. So when all those other than the monks are called to practice it, you can expect the reaction will be demonstrations, then riots. Look at Europe right now. They get it.

RGR2, you're not dumb, just terribly ignorant.

Sure he's not an outright liar?

austerity ... riots ... Europe

Considering most political parties are NOT in favor of riots by the people and "The Tea Party" has a "goal" of cutting spending (aka austerity) - how's that gonna all work out?

RGR2, you're not dumb, just terribly ignorant. Interesting that you're old enough to recall the 1970's oil shocks. Let's add stubborn, too.

I don't know which is worse! Old, stubborn, or ignorant! :>)

Lets just say that when you've been around the block a few times (seen a few peak oils come and go) you don't get near as excited as you used to. At least back then we had rationing and shortages, this one hasn't even been able to stop fuel deliveries on the Alcan.

I see you like to take the long historical view, but use the information like a propagandist. You seem to all too conveniently overlook the fact that we have reached or are soon reaching our technological limits for oil extraction at a reasonable, affordable to most folks, price.

You seem to overlook the fact that during the past century TPTB weren't afraid of high price but of actual availability, and set aside large chunks of American countryside to assure supply at any cost. If all peakers are reduced to is just "gee, it will get more expensive" then I hate to tell y'all but its been going on under your noses for nearly 40 years now and I don't see people throwing themselves off high bridges over it.

Discoveries peaked globally in the 1960-70s, and we are fast running out of new technology tricks to "squeeze the can" on the old giants.

Discoveries peaked in 1935 unless you use "peakers don't know what oil is" definitions and we were running out of tricks in 1901 too....until we invented another one...and we did it again in the 1940's....and we did it again in the 80's....and we're doing it again now. Do you have any estimates on the total number of "tricks" available? Then we can deduct the last 4 or 5 big ones I can think of and see how many are left?

Have you heard of the Export Land Model discussed in depth here on TOD?

Of course. Are you implying that it has a value of some sort?

Rulz,

re oil exports: we can't all be importers.
Does that fact have value?

Of course.

Well, I guess the next trick will be Petrobras drilling oil in 2.5 km of deep water under about another 2.5 km of sediments and thick salt in even deeper formations under the seafloor, or something like that. It's late and I'm not going to fact check myself on this. The question seems to be when does it get so expensive that even manipulated markets can't pay?

RGR2, you seem to be a tough old bird. Maybe we could share some whisky some time. ;)

I went to see a play relating to climate change at my local library a few months ago with a discussion to follow. Present was one climate change denier who proceeded to trot out various reports and statistics supposed to convince the (80%?) remainder of the audience of their foolish thinking, and he came to dominate most of the discussion. Eventually I had enough and asked him to pipe down. Now I feel like saying the same thing to you RG2 - your contributions here (although skillfully expounded and appropriate enough to another topic) are creating so much noise that the signal is being lost.

Humans have been through bottlenecks before

Not true.

Only those few who survived, made it "through".

I would have been one of the many people I can't comprehend!

We all are part of "those" people whom we can't comprehend.

In other words, but for the grace of TOD there go I.

Amen...We don't have crystal balls. "Just the facts, ma'am" And the facts are plenty. We should leave forecasts beyond, "there will be change", left unsaid. Then "change is always, necessary, and can be a good thing". Then, "work hard and you can have a good life and can be anything you want". Notice the 'can', as opposed to 'will'.

Not much else to discuss except try and turn the kids on to the subject and learning, itself. (All, in 1 hour and fifteen minutes)

Cheers

"They'd rather be a wrong voice in a group of wrong voices than a solo correct one."

rosex229,

As I was a lone voice in a room full of people who all kept their hands down when I answered the question, then they all put their hands up when the other option was given, and I was asked if I wanted to change my mind and I did not, the teacher was smiling at his eyes when he told them I was right and they were wrong. I am a brave person, even when I was a kid, or maybe I was foolish, not following all the other lemmings off the cliff.

But in the news recently you see where governments all over Europe are trying to cut costs and all they get is riots from the people because they can't stand the idea of cutting costs if it costs them the hurt. I say we'll only learn the hard way, when we crash and people ahve to stand around begging for food as the limos drive by with the fed people and gassed up cars. Can't people see that money does not grow on trees and the world is not full of oil in it's juicy center, or is that just a wealthy nation problem?

I know too many people who are over 75 and most of them can't work anymore at least not at jobs that would amount to anything much beyond a few bucks a day. Most of them lived hard lives and still do, but they make do with what little they have and don't complain that someone else has more than they do, IE they aren't jealous of others.

Peak Oil and all that comes with it will hurt a lot of people but those that hurt the most will be the greedy and jealous people, as it is already eating at them now.

Charles,
BioWebScape designs for a better fed and housed world.

It would be nice to get the message to adult opinion leaders. Paul Krugman keeps advocating reinflating the economy to full employment. I try to get him thinking about it by asking questions in his blog like "how much oil would the world economy then use, and what if the world can't pump that much oil at the moment?" For kids I'd really like to teach them to think for themselves. Maybe we should start with the words of David MacKay: numbers not adjectives, modelling not arm-waving. Also we need to let them know that many reasonable sounding people have hidden motives and are less than honest: the engines of disinformation run on both sides of any argument that has policy implications.

Maybe we should start with the words of David MacKay: numbers not adjectives, modelling not arm-waving ...

MacKay's website (+ online book) is here:

http://www.withouthotair.com/

Parents should tell their own kids for sure while learning together the kind of skills that will be needed.
But it's way too soon to try to get schools to teach it -- the conversation is still too young.
Besides the financial implosion that we are just at the start of will mask most of what we all believe to be true.
Last, colleges and universities are going to shut down in droves this decade. This is a consequence of just the end of growth. Contraction simply accelerates things somewhat. We already have glut of educated people that is only going to get (much) worse.
When there is a glut in any other sector the factories shut down until the glut disappears. We will see *a lot* of factories (schools) shut down in this decade -- perhaps as many as 3 out 5 by 2020 as kids choose not to go in debt and endowments and tax revenues disappear.

Aangel you bring up a good point. This is all happening now. Whether its public schools or universitities a lot of funding come from state and federal govt. Once the world loses faith in the dollar those arenas are not only going to be impossible to spread the message through, but the collapse of the dollar will render discussion of peak oil irrelevant for 99.9% of people. Even though inflated oil prices are what caused the events that are unfolding most will be completely unaware. Instead of using rigorous logic most seem to find it easier to blame politicians, minorities, foreigners, etc.

Our social science department is teaching a unit on economics to year 9s centred around peak oil and resource depletion. So we're teaching conventional basic economic theory in tandem with peak oil and looking at how scarcity effects price, and so on down the line. We love teaching this unit - with its strong focus on what is happening in the real economy and how it will have effects in the near future - and the students, despite finding the material (eg: we watch "Crude Awakening") a bit heavy, also find it very interesting, and can't help but trying to think up solutions. Sure some of their solutions are a bit naive, but they are kids, and it's great that they've started thinking about how to deal with this issue, as in a few years they'll be dealing with it head on. Whilst I've no doubt that many of them file away the information at the end of class and go off to lunch to be immersed in their adolescent social universe, at least the knowledge of the forces underlying our economic reality are there for later reference.

With regards to how we came to be teaching peak oil, I will say though that at our school we are privileged in a few important ways:

  • we're in a public school - so we don't have the puritanical oversight of happy-clappy, god-squadders drilling students about how "the Rapture" is nigh and we'll all be saved as the Earth is destroyed.
  • we're in Australia, not the US - so we don't have to deal with the political influence of the zany religious bigots, like the Tea Baggers making it difficult to teach evolution (which isn't contraversial here) let alone climate change (a mandated part of the curriculum in Australia) and peak oil / resource depletion (not mandated yet, but here's hoping).
  • we're in a gifted school - so we've got more leeway to work around the mandated curriculum, and try new, more challenging topics.

I mention this because it's easy for us to forget how fortunate we've been, which has been brought home to me whilst reading through the comments of all the obstacles that lay in the path of educators that want to teach the topic of peak oil in high schools. I also want to make the point that when good teachers with up to date knowledge have the freedom to design their own curriculum (as we have had) that it does become possible to teach engaging and relevant topics like peak oil. To other teachers out there wanting to teach about peak oil & resource depletion I say "Don't give up!". I've no doubt it took a fair while to get climate change on the educational agenda, but in most developed countries now, it's taken for granted that this is going to be taught as part of the curriculum - in both secondary and primary school. As educators we have the power to inform dozens (even hundreds) or our next generation about the benefits and pitfalls of this complex society of ours. And this can make the difference between making informed choices and acting hysterically in the face of demanding circumstances.

By teaching students about peak oil, resource depletion and climate change at the very least we are being part of any potential solution, and speaking for myself, that's enough reason to keep teaching it, and teaching it as best I can.

It's not productive to provide very young children with significantly more information than they are ready to process. That said, I've introduced all of my children who are old enough to understand that gasoline doesn't come from the store to both the fact that oil is a finite resource and the concept of peak oil.

In spite of having several children, I have no dog in a fight over public school curricula. My kids are home schoolers. My children know about peak oil because I introduced it to them.

It's important to note that they started with only what I introduced. They're young, and we're still working on basic scientific concepts like the scientific method. I'm trying to teach them that, when confronted with a complex hypothesis like Peak Oil, one of the most important questions to ask is, "How do we know?" The decline of a single oil field is readily explained by conservation of matter, and the kids got that right away. The decline of an economy is less readily explained - and thus far I have not tried. I have no intention of doing so any time soon. My oldest is 9, and that's just not where we're at right now. At this point in their education, trying to give them some kind of crash course in peak oil economics or instill the dread of some arbitrary set of projected consequences will actually detract from teaching them the skills they need to deal with those consequences.

My kids need a very brief sketch of what peak oil is and why that matters, and that's all.

Peak oil is not a fundamental concept, nor is it a skill. Further, some portions of the Peak Oil Story currently fail the "How do we know" test.

I have to vote "Yes". Peak oil should be taught in schools. If we hide this from our children, we deserve destruction. But there is a limit to how much it can help them.

Forget about the public school system successfully teaching Peak Oil concepts. As soon as an individual teacher tries to do so, they will have parents on their back for teaching another ‘myth’.

We decided as a family to home school our four grandchildren because we concluded that the public system is broken beyond repair and many private schools are nothing more than reform schools.

Academic classes were usually completed by noon or earlier and the rest of the day was devoted to wiring our houses, plumbing, laying hard wood floors, repairing farm equipment, raising pigs, cows, and goats etc.

They are at my house every Saturday morning at 7:00 am for breakfast and a lecture on what I consider to be a major life issue. Accordingly, they understand Peak Oil and its implications as well as the regular commenters on TOD and they participate in family preparation activities.

For those who question the value of home schooling, the oldest grandson at twenty three has a very successful career in IT following certification in a number of auto mechanic systems. The second grandson graduates from state university next May with a robotics and nano-technology endorsement. The two youngest are in community college and all have earned their own way - no student debt hanging over their heads.

If you want them to learn about peak oil, invest your own time in teaching them.

As part of Ecology, the topic of human interaction with the environment should also be covered. Students should learn that there at least three types of human use of the environment:
- sustainable uses (more or less), like agriculture, foresty, fisheries, where diligent conservation measures can allow the uses to continue at a high rate for a long time,
- extractive uses, which exhaust the resources (more or less rapidly), like gold or aluminum mining, but where the extracted material can be recycled and reused, and
- extractive uses, which exhaust the resources, like oil drilling and coal mining, and where the extracted material can only be used once.

Otherwise, Ecology tends to be this romantic subject where if only humans did the right things the world would stay preserved in some idyllic state of perpetual abundance.

For extra credit, students should visit mines, quarries, oil wells, etc. whichever are available in the area. A field trip to a mine like the open pits at Hibbing or Butte might be good.

http://www.ironrange.org/attractions/mining/hull-rust/

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/10/gallery_mines/

The exhaustion of oil fields is less graphic, but they will be prepared to draw their own conclusions.

("The Simpsons" "The PTA Disbands" (1995))
.
[in the school cafeteria]
Mrs. Krabappel: Seymour, you have to think of the children's future.
Seymour: Oh, Edna. We all know that these children HAVE no future.
[everyone stops and stares at Seymour]
Seymour: Prove me wrong, children. Prove me wrong.
_______________________________________________________________________
.
Tell them. They never told us anything of the real world in school. We were all innocence. It was betrayal.
.
Many explorers of the universe, of physics and math, of science, art, and technique, make their major contributions in their early twenties.
British common law age of consent was 12. People had lifespans averaging 30 years before the rise of rational technology. The Quinceañera,
the Bar and Bat Mitzvah, and other rites of passage declare, among other things, the dawn of moral responsibility.
.
We hold our domestic animals in a infantile state. A dog is like a wolf puppy. We do the same to ourselves in civilization. In Mongolia, nomadic three year-olds learn to ride horseback. Five year-olds tend small flocks of sheep. They are allowed to contribute. Some young American children are desperate to learn the real arts of living. It is the brain's wish.
.
I didn't know 49% of americans don't know how long it takes for the earth to revolve around the sun...
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12999
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12999&page=8
Mongolian felt making:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ0uojUHYdA
.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0778454/quotes

This reminds of the present mantra at least in the US that you can never be too careful with protecting kids.

Yes, you can and we are way overboard with this to our children determent.

I have dabbled in teaching about peak oil and peak minerals for more that 50 years. Overall this has been an interesting but essentially futile hobby. I note that there were close to 100,000 spectators in the Cotton Bowl for the OU-TU football game today. They will find out about peak oil soon enough. I also saw Episode 11 of the Charlie Rose Brain Series on Bloomberg today. The subject was decision making. I presume that it has or will also be played on PBS. Episodes 1 to 10 are available on the internet.

Nevertheless I am enthralled by Gail's posts and the resulting discussions.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/collection/10702

Should the peak oil story be taught in schools?

Nope, because it is the wrong label to focus them on.

There are many 'Peak Oils', and playing pick-the-peak is best left to academic circles.

A MUCH smarter thing to teach them is Finite Affordable Fuel.

That sidesteps the pick-the-peak fluff, and focuses them on thinking about where their energy comes from, and how long it might continue to be available, at affordable prices.

My 1946-7 Amarillo High School Chemistry Teacher was obsessed with atomic energy.

I tutor kids, and I teach them (some of them) to be highly skeptical.

For example, we went over the Steady-State-Economy article in the Oil Drum from Herman Daly, and I explained how economists do the calculations in an example, by comparing two detergents, a biodegradable one with a 2$ cost vs a non-biodegradable one that costs 1$ to manufacture, and 2$ to cleanup the mess.

I explained to him, that according to economists, the non-biodegradable is the better one as it generates more economic activity! He stated that it did not make sense. Yeah, a teenager grasps better the economic system than Nobel prize winners in economy.

Anyway, the cat is out of the bag with the internet, and having solid FACTUAL data (like in this site) definitely beats an alarmist or cavalier site in the web wilderness.

We should teach them things that may help them in the future...

1) Choose an occupation that people with little money will be willing to pay for.
2) Learn to grow food.
3) Eat less meat.
4) Do not waste.
5) Look after your health.
6) Enjoy the simple things in life.
7) Choose a home at least 20m above sea level and close to secure fresh water.
8) Keep some savings as gold.
9) Have no more than 2 children.
10) Vote for people that want to remove the influence of money from government and that believe in balanced budgets.

10) Vote for people that want to remove the influence of money from government and that believe in balanced budgets.

Ah! Someone who supports my plan to vote "None of the Above"?

How about:
9) Adopt two children

Bringing kids into the world, depending on where one lives, might be something the kids may not be very glad about in twenty years.

Very true. And it gets much worse with AGW.

I am almost finished a second reading of James Hansen's Storms of My Grandchildren. It was even better the second time. Perhaps because his message is so persuasive and profound you need to hear it twice for it to really sink in. The bottom line is that we need to quickly reduce CO2 to below 350 ppm or our children (and the planet) are screwed. The only way to achieve this is to stop all use of coal and oil sands plus stop deforestation immediately. And the only way to achieve this is a massive build out of nuclear (or do without electricity) plus transfer some of our wealth to developing countries (to motivate them to leave and enhance their forests). Time is running out. If we wait much longer positive feedbacks will take over and there will be nothing we can do to prevent runaway warming and sea level rise. If this happens it will take at least 100,000 years for the climate to return to a state hospitable for humans. Recall that we have only been civilized for 10,000 years.

If you are unsure of or do not trust the science, please read James Hansen's book.

I have read Hansen's book, and as a scientist, it is fair and balanced.

Yes, I am deeply worried, as well as terribly upset at our political "leader"

I'm not sure who it was, but some ignorant asshole above who said "freshmen don't know what happens when a light is switched on" probably doesn't have a clue himself. Actually, the modern education in ECE is heavily geared toward renewable energy systems, biofuels, and anti-FF systems. Furthermore, we should be teaching our children that innovation in the applied sciences is heavily rewarded if successful, starting an engineering firm is the best way to get rich, there is abundance of energy on this planet that is waiting to be collected and used, and that the sooner they get started in an advanced engineering education, the better. High schools should be teaching more physics and math so that we will later have more people in engineering and control studies who are able to design power systems susceptible to wind and solar fluctuations. There is also a severe shortage of nuclear engineers.

I'm not sure who it was, but some ignorant asshole above who said "freshmen don't know what happens when a light is switched on" probably doesn't have a clue himself

I pushed a button there, EP. You never know who you're talking to on the net. Nope, I'm not an engineer. And by the way, I'm not a he. I'm a teacher. But I talked about the big picture to a group of pre-engineering freshmen students last week, Many of them didn't know what our sources of energy are, and had no clue that maybe we had problems coming. The student from Poland got it, though. Maybe because we are so blinded by our wealth and riches that we can't see the truth. I told them that they were making good choices, and that we were going to need a lot more engineers. But not if they're the type of engineers who believe that technology will save us, and that engineers are supposed to do what they're told as far as projects go, and not think for themselves about why they're doing something and not just the details. If the engineers all wait for mindless direction from central casting, we're going to be in even worse trouble as we geo-engineer what's left of the world.

I think we should teach all kids about how to grow food, where food comes from and how to cook or preserve it, make cheese, make jam, deal with small live stock like chickens, make pizza in a school food gardens cob oven, let them know food does not only come from the supermarket or out of a box, these are good basic skills that every child should be exposed too, plus it's fun and they learn to respect and eat better quality food. If the world changes for the worst these skills would never be lost.

Australia's Stephanie Alexander Kitchen Garden Foundation is a great example of a working system

http://www.kitchengardenfoundation.org.au/

Baz

In 2002 while discusing spirituality in an online forum someone mentioned oil scarcity. It dragged up a memory of being at school at the age of 7 or 8 (1977/78)and being shown a graph. The graph was of oil, coal and gas quantities over time and showed a steady state until the 90s with then a sudden drop to nothing in the year 2000. Obviously the graph had to be simple for our age but it did hammer home the fact that fossil fuels were a non-renewable resource.

It was after recalling the memory of this graph that I then began to research peak oil and other related energy and environmental issues.

On my mother's side, my ancestors were all of Bavarian origin, but moved to Russia during the reign of Catherine the Great as part of a Russian program to improve agricultural productivity. That lasted until early in the 20th century, when my great grandparents were forced out of Russia due to anti-German sentiment. They settled in the Dakotas. My grandfather was born in North Dakota in 1912 into a very large farming family. He attended grade school, but was pulled out in the third grade because the farm needed more hands. Then came the Depression, and the Dust Bowl caused the farm to fail. By then my grandfather had married, and they sold everything that they had (which wasn't much) and drove to Seattle. With no money and no plan other than to seek help from relatives in the area, they set out to build a new life. As war production ramped up, they found success and proceeded to live a modest but comfortable life.

All of us have hardship in the family tree, and very few of us would have to look farther back than three generations to find it. That's something that I think children are going to understand. Looking to our own history and seeing how real people have dealt with real hardships is going to give us better insight fantasies about stocking up on ammo or playing the commodities markets.

Topics such as life in the Depression are appropriate for young children. They present an opportunity to exercise imagination and connect with their own family history. In the later grades, topics such as financial overleveraging, soil quality, and the rise of fascism are appropriate. From a technical standpoint, peak oil is perhaps too esoteric a topic for elementary or high school, but not the facets that are of greatest concern to most individuals.

Why is it that the subject of peak oil seems to be "in one ear and out the other"? My insight as someone who isn't too far above the college age is that people of my generation, perhaps more so in the past, are used to there being a multiplicity of conflicting ideas. Consequently, we have learned to listen and absorb ideas without necessarily rejecting them, accepting them, or accepting them in the way that the speaker intended. We tend to think that few things are as big a deal as the speaker thinks, perhaps as a result of growing up with sensationalist media, so many hyperboles from religious leaders and politicians, etc.

Why is it that the subject of peak oil seems to be "in one ear and out the other"? My insight as someone who isn't too far above the college age is that people of my generation, perhaps more so in the past, are used to there being a multiplicity of conflicting ideas. Consequently, we have learned to listen and absorb ideas without necessarily rejecting them, accepting them, or accepting them in the way that the speaker intended. We tend to think that few things are as big a deal as the speaker thinks, perhaps as a result of growing up with sensationalist media, so many hyperboles from religious leaders and politicians, etc

Thanks, Pepper. I see this in my students. The media storm has become so powerful and so skewed that without underlying basic understanding of the energy basis for society, the kids are set adrift in the maelstrom. I give the students a framework with which to view the world, through an energy lens. It takes two weeks for them to get it. Students in week 3 this year said, "OK, we get it. What do we do about it?"

Teaching this stuff from a position of complete acceptance is important. If one is still bargaining, or angry about the situation, or unsure about the possibility an escape from the situation, then the message is weakened and cannot compete with the existing memes. Each year it gets easier, as the defenses of people lose their grip, as the evidence piles up on the other side. The economic collapse and the GOM crisis have made it much easier this year than 3 years ago, when I first started teaching such a course. Now when I say that we are headed for a future of permanent economic contraction, the students find it easier to believe than they did when I started.

Teaching with humor and joy is essential--again, it is hard to laugh about this stuff unless you've completely accepted the paradigm shift. I've scoured the internet to find positive examples from people who have completed the grieving process and have accepted the change. These examples are few and far between. John Cooksey's new film from How To Boil A Frog is one such example. I recommend it highly, although I'm not sure about some of his suggested ways to act. But those individual interventions are not as important as understanding the shift we have to make, choosing your personal ways to change, and getting started. And I found that there is a wealth of discussion in how to react individually, with continuous reflection back to the concepts at large. What better way to teach critical thinking?

In the later grades, topics such as financial overleveraging, soil quality, and the rise of fascism are appropriate.

I am surprised that it is always 'fascism" that is brought up. On any significant scale, fascism only lasted maybe about 20 years or so (in the 1930's - 1940's).
Communism on the other hand has been a problem for maybe 90 years and counting?
So why is the "rise of communism" never mentioned?
Just curious.

A lot of the posters here still think Communism was a great idea. Witness the Chavez fans.

I don't but capitalism, as it's practiced now, is certainly going to send us off the cliff (already is doing that, in my view) because it doesn't have a reverse gear. But even that's not quite right because population is really the major driver. Both socialism and capitalism would be just fine, from the perspective our failing ecosystems, if we had just 500 million people on the planet.

Here is a funny description of socialism vs capitalism (watch the first video, short):

Can Capitalism Save the Planet?
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/09/17/can-capitalism-save-the-pl...

Mr. Kutz:
.
I mentioned the rise of fascism because of its loud presence in the media. "When fascism comes to America, it will be waving the flag and carrying the bible." someone said within range of my memory. We now have no real news: it is controlled by the corporations, bent to their interests.
The politicians no longer even bother to hide their allegiance to their corporate owners.
.
Yet, and yes, the real problem is not "ism". In any of the ism's (commun, capital, Marx, fasc), it is the failure of the agent-client relationship that spoils the ideal. The Chinese distributed money to local agents to build schools for their clients, the local populace. The agents pocketed the money and built castles made of sand. The schools crumbled in earthquakes, killing the children. The parents protests were brutally suppressed. The U.S. government distributed money through Indian agents to support their promises to their clients, the Indians, herded onto reservations. The agents pocketed the money and the Indians starved.
.
But, lets not forget the brutality of profit and hatred. The Volkswagen neonatal care program was to take the newborn from the prisoner/slave worker, put her back to work, and place the neonate on a cold stone slab until it died*. This is how exploiters of labor operate when unrestrained, unregulated. Cheap. Easy. No dollars wasted on the "leaching lazy low-lifes who can't make it on their own"(the war-cry of the American right-wing).
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It is the human condition.
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.
* OUTRAGE AT VELPKE RUHEN (May 1944)
In May, 1944, a home for infant children was established in the village of Velpke, near Helmstedt, Germany. The home was for the offspring of Polish female slave labourers working on farms and food factories in the area. Food being scarce in Germany in 1944, more work was required from these Polish women whom the Nazi Bürgermeister of Velpke thought were spending too much time attending to their children. Forcibly removed from their mothers, the children were incarcerated in an old building without running water, electric light or telephone. Ordered by the Reich Labour Office to take charge of the home and assume care of the infants, an ex teacher, Frau Billien, and four Polish and Russian girls were installed in the building. Neither had any experience in running a clinic for infant children. When the Volkswagen factory at nearby Wolfsburg (where many of the women worked) required possession of the premises some months later it was discovered that eighty four Polish infants had died through sheer neglect, lack of mother's milk and a general disregard for their well being. According to the village register the most common causes of death was general weakness, dysentery and intestinal catarrh. After the war, a British Military Court sentenced two of the the perpetrators to death and three to long terms of imprisonment. Within the confines of the Wolkswagen factory a similar clinic was established under the care of the factory doctor, Dr Korbel, and a nurse, Ella Schmidt. The clinic was later moved to Rühen some twelve kilometres away. Between April, 1943 and April, 1945, it was established that around 400 infants had died there. In 1944, 254 out of 310 admissions ended in death for these infants who lay in cots, weak with diarrhoea and infested with lice. Dr. Korbel was later tried and convicted by a British War Crimes Court and sentenced to death.
(The Volkswagen factory has in recent years traced many of its surviving former slave workers and paid each one of them the sum of DM 10,000).
__________________

So why is the "rise of communism" never mentioned?
Just curious.

Because one of the big communist systems is the Military - what with all the public funding.

(how many militaries are funded by their looting?)

The reason I mentioned fascism is that I was thinking about the early 20th century as I wrote that post. More so than communism, I think that the origins of fascism, particularly in Italy after the First World War, are very much rooted in frustrated nationalism and labor discontent. For this reason it provides an important window into the psychology of societies in distress. It's important for good citizens to understand the various political ideologies, defunct and still active, and there's no particular reason to single out fascism as a particularly important topic. Some other people who commented suggested that I myself might be a communist, or that I was trying to portray certain elements in American society as having fascistic tendencies, and both of those implications are untrue.

Gail posed two questions:

If the world will be changing, what should we be saying to our children about it?

The sun and solar system changes very slowly. Basic chemistry, physics, math, anatomy, history, language, reading, safety, hygiene, thrift, and the virtue of making an effort to master something difficult are valid yesterday, today and tomorrow for all children everywhere. Each kid has an unique personality. It's our habit and duty as parents to answer all of our daughter's questions candidly, completely and succinctly. She asks quite a lot of questions, but more importantly often surprises us with knowledge she obtained independently.

In the course of her life, yes, the world will change (war, famine, disaster, geek factor, fashions). All of it will be hers to assess selfishly and personally as she matures and makes mistakes. Our influence as parents will decline rapidly. Her adventure in life is hers to define and pursue by herself of necessity and inalienable constitutional right.

Should the peak oil story be taught in schools?

I don't think it matters. Ecology propaganda is so thick in every primary school, that Peak Everything fits right in. High school and college are places of socialization and career sifting. Does peak oil matter to a dancer, gymnast, musician or artist? Football or basketball players? Doctors and lawyers?

Speaking personally, oil is just a commodity. I would be lying if I told a kid that the financial market is incapable of price discovery or funding worthy new technology. My father lived his entire life without computers, which he understood to be enormous machines made by IBM that used punch cards.

They say it is much harder to be poor after being rich, than simply having been poor all one's life. In that same vein, it would seem that is will be much harder to be without tech toys and the complexity that provides the majority of people a non-labor life, than to have never had those luxuries. Incrementally over the years each subsequent generation has had to do less labor and possess less skills. It will be such a difficult transition to make for the younger generation to do simple things like saw a piece of wood or hand crank a drill bit. The grandparents will be explaining how to do things, the parents will be showing the young ones by example and the young ones will struggle to do what use to be simple physical tasks.

I remember seeing a special on PBS in which an american girl about 20 yrs of age was in a South American country. The local girl about the same age needed to get water from the river and supervised the american girl to help out for the water she would need for the day as well. All of this at 5 am. The American girl complained and spilled her water, and so on. It was really hard to watch. But imagine that scene played out everywhere. It will be such an embarrassing hard scene to watch as the transition takes place from non-labor to laborious lives.

Teach them what is coming? How can you get across what they cannot even come close to imagining? Might as well just let it play out as it occurs. No amount of talk with change what's going to happen and they won't be any better prepared. "Yeah, you told me post peak oil labor was coming, but what are these water bubbles on my hands?!" Those are water blisters. "Oh my God, this is awful, moan, groan, cry."

When I was a kid, people crying on TV was almost unheard of. You were suppose to buck up and take it. Now people cry over the super tiniest things. Ever watch Project Runway? Last week I think everyone on that show cried at least once. People will need to toughen up again, but I'm sure a lot of that will take place during the many stages of collapse.

Also imagine a world with no prescription drugs. Oh my! So many people take a slew of drugs and once there gone what happens then? We'll have to learn to work with our hands, sweat & toil, buck up, no driving, live without texting-emailing-googling-channelsurfing-cellphoning-tweeting, adjust to no prescription drugs, and lose weight on a mass scale due to a lack of melted cheese and deep fried foods. Are you ready for the transition? No, no one is and no amount of talk will that change that.

I remember being taught about peak oil and gas, or rather oil and natural gas depletion in school in Norway. We were told that we had about 50 years left of oil and 200 of gas left in the north sea (now 10 years ago). This was in junior high (14-16 years). My own reaction, and likely everyone else's, was that 50 years ahead is a very distant future. Also, there was no reflection over when the peak would occur or what implications it might have. It was simply assumed that there is no problem until it's empty. The global problem of peak oil was never mentioned as far as I remember, but if it were, I think the reaction would have been the same.

Say we teach young teenagers about peak oil. I think most of them won't understand how serious and immediate the problem is, but they will at least be aware that it exists, and when later they learn to think for themselves, maybe they will understand.

Amund,

Good point about 50 years seeming very distant.
I turn 60 next year and am all too aware of how short a half-century is.

You are also correct about our assumption that problems would occur when we hit minimum production, not maximum.
It seems that Norway (and especially the UK) have awakened to the fact that their North Sea bonanza is proving to be similarly brief, perhaps not much more than a similar 50-year timeline.

As a kid growing up in Montreal, people in our neighbourhood began switching from oil to natural gas heating.
The salesmen told my parents that Canada had about 500 years of natural gas supply.
Unless the hype about shale gas turns out to be true, Canada's natural gas bonanza may also turn out to be rather brief.

A half-century (or even one human lifetime) is but a moment in the history of a nation, but this particular half-century/lifetime will prove to be a very significant (and permanent) moment in the history of fossil fuels.

I used to teach material related to this website, but I don't anymore.

I had a writing project which was ostensibly about using materials from multiple sources in a paper, with the topic being the future of oil. I was the only professor teaching this material at the whole school (as far as I know; I'm not in earth sciences).

If there's no support from faculty in other departments, then it's a waste of time. You might as well teach creationism.

I showed my niece and her girlfriend some films about peak oil and got them very interested in the topic. Then her "environmental sciences" teacher told her peak oil was "unscientific."

And so it goes.

I think that high school should focus on setting the foundations for logical thinking and information processing, but mind bending and content has to come at college when more have the capacity for abstract thought. The Advanced Placement Environmental Science curriculum in the hands of even a moderately enthusiastic teacher raises awareness about many issues behind Peak Oil. Of course it is not offered everywhere in US schools, and then only to the solidly college bound. But all students in my freshmen energy classes on Peak Oil at a good state university who took APES in high school know the foundations and are receptive if initially skeptical to the PO message. They may not understand the deep linkage between PO and climate change, but they have been introduced to both and many are sponges for data that they can spread to friends; some have visited their high schools to spread the word.

That background allows me to spend the semester picking apart the issues and uncertainties in timing both, and to help them in seminar format to develop the logical structure in Rationale logical reasoning software and the myriad impacts on BAU. I don't pull punches, I admit that we Boomers (their parents) screwed them over to give them a coddled childhood. Next week I'll be asking them to read Michael Kinsley's Atlantic article on what Boomers can do to redeem our legacy (pay down the debt). I tell them that opportunities for major contributions are there if they understand the basic energy/overshoot problem, align at least a bit of their education toward the new path if only as a hedge, and avoid debt traps. They must remain optimistic because they are young.

I leave most elaboration of the social aspects of PO to others because my course is billed as quantitative intensive, a category that all students must satisfy to graduate. With cajoling they will grudgingly calculate using MacKay's Sustainable Energy Without Hot Air book as basis. They seem to respect the message when it is framed not in doomer-tongue (which I avoid, too much teenage angst already) and they have done the numbers themselves.

Of course, the main problem is that at any time we have only one or two courses on PO underway to interface with less than 1% of undergrads, with more noise on campus about "sustainable business" whatever that is. A dozen of us working to get energy issues into a university-wide multidisciplinary curriculum along the lines of MIT and Berkeley have encountered tone deaf administrators and obstructive empire builders. It doesn't help to be rooted in physics that the average undergrad is not going to head towards because of its justified reputation for being esoteric, hard, and dull.

Those who didn't take APES tend to arrive as aspiring business majors, and it's been a challenge to open their mind to the possibility that their corporate path to glory has rather big potholes and will be strewn with even more burning wrecks.

One could do much more of course, but the realities of having to bring in grants and publish in peer reviewed literature and stay within BAU means that PO issues can only be secondary albeit energy can be used to satisfy some teaching. There are too many sharks around even when one is tenured. Still, I have a dozen known undergrad successes over the decade that I've been PO aware, and hopefully many more who got something out of it. Two have progressed elsewhere through PhDs and are working in Germany and Spain on solar R&D for companies with track records on getting products to market in large scale. A couple are finishing advanced degrees in building design and renewable systems elsewhere after a few years of tinkering. A few are thriving in Teach for America. And a couple of our BA and BS are working in DC/VA on policy and for a wind company. Few but not none.

I don't pull punches, I admit that we Boomers (their parents) screwed them over to give them a coddled childhood.

So do you think that the staying power of Beverly Hillbillies and the fascination with the Matrix are subconscious reactions of our society to the underlying intuitive knowledge that our society exists as an accident of stored wealth?

Of course, the main problem is that at any time we have only one or two courses on PO underway to interface with less than 1% of undergrads, with more noise on campus about "sustainable business" whatever that is. A dozen of us working to get energy issues into a university-wide multidisciplinary curriculum along the lines of MIT and Berkeley have encountered tone deaf administrators and obstructive empire builders. It doesn't help to be rooted in physics that the average undergrad is not going to head towards because of its justified reputation for being esoteric, hard, and dull.

Yes, 14 at a time, with no supporting themes as they advance through their studies. Harvard comes out this year smelling money, looking for fellows for "sustainable development." If you reach one, it's a success, in my book. At least you've tried.

" If the world will be changing, what should we be saying to our children about it? "

If..?

I don't have any children, but "if" , I did, I would tell them to roll with the punches. Adaptation is the key to survival.

I read that some of the posters here are teachers who have tried to approach the topics of peak oil, sustainability,etc with their students. I don't think it's possible to impact somebody with the importance of sustainability without approaching deeper, more fundamental topics. IMHO, until standards of living in a "disposable" society are addressed, ie: how much does it take to make you happy ?, that the concept of sustainability is beyond grasping. People who are intrinsically unhappy will never understand it. Those looking to fill that hole will mindlessly, and endlessly spend and consume, with nary a thought to the consequence. I grew up chopping firewood, chasing goats, fixing fences, etc, with no modern utilities, no TV and no toys. Crummy for a kid, but looking back, I realize exactly how lucky I really was.

Sometimes, just for the experience, I hop on the bus and go to Super Walmart to observe what "normal" people do. What I am reminded of..? ..Grubs. Larvae. Some of them on scooters. I am reminded of a Mad magazine article I read back in the 70's. It was printed in the early 60's , and was a story about, hypothetically, what our civilization would look like in the year 2010. It was not far off from the truth. Mega-stores, massive cars , morbidly obese people on scooters(no lie) whose brains had also atrophied and withered, producing what bears remarkable resemblance to a good portion of today's American society.

Just musing there.

As for you school teachers....I do not envy you. I work mainly as a chef/restaurant consultant, and my teaching methods are a little...different, usually involving sharp objects and hot things, ultimately, I don't have to worry about pissing off somebody's parents.

One thing I can never stress enough to anybody, is that there is a massive difference in a teacher who teaches by rote, and a teacher who recognizes and cultivates the strengths in those they teach. This has a large part to play in sustainability , I see it based in the refinement of the efficiency of the system ,IMO. Example: I take a consulting job for a struggling restaurant, and see that the the food takes an extraordinary amount of time to get out. A good 90% of the time, it's not the employees, it's either how they were taught, or, or the fact that they would do better in a different position/s, but the person leading/teaching them cannot see these things independent of the whole. By working with the employees, developing their strengths in other areas and showing them how important their actions are in the chain, it gives them a better idea of how to sustain their working model, ie " service time ", so that things don't crumble at the first sign of a packed dining room.

They never get it, until they are shown how important their actions are to the whole, and this requires a change in thinking. And if they don't, they get canned. Too bad you guys can't fire students,lol.

I had an interesting experience on the train the other day. I happened to sit down next to a college student who had a copy of Tainter's "Collapse of Complex Societies" in her hands, which she was busy marking up in yellow highlighter.

Needless to say, I had to strike up conversation, and it turns out she was taking a "Sustainability" class at one of the local colleges.

It appears she was stuck on understanding the concept of "The Commons". So I explained it to her. Then, it turns out she had more questions...and so it went to our stop and we got off the train and went our separate ways.

It is one thing to present a topic in a classroom - it is quite another to be able to answer all the questions and make it applicable to an individual student's life.

What's the point if they learn to regurgitate the answers to "What is a Commons ?", "What is Peak Oil ?", without understanding the relevance and the application in real life ?

My point being that you can't just leave this to the classroom and think it is a done deal.

Which brings me to the question - what exactly ARE we trying to teach about Peak Oil ? That it is real ? How to respond? What will life be like ? Most of it we really don't have any answers for.

Most of it we really don't have any answers for.

This will drive ReserveGrowlRulz nuts, but I don't think that's anywhere near a true statement.

Start with the dramatic shift in employment we are undergoing. Here is what the Canadian labor scene looks like as growth slows then stops. It included no contraction whatsoever:
No Growth Disaster

Peter Victor, slide 46

Notice what happens to unemployment when he gently slows growth and then stops it completely by 2015.

Suddenly, you have way too many educated people and that number keeps growing for the next three or four decades (supposedly) because world population is still growing. As the economy actually contracts, the unemployment problem becomes unmanageable very quickly. Social unrest grows because people do not quietly accept that they are going to be poorer and lash out at whomever is handy, often their government.

Clearly, with that many people looking for work, wages are going to fall dramatically. This has already begun.

Now people scramble to make a few dollars any way they can. Where in the world do we already see that? The so-called developing nations. Ergo, the advanced economies are beginning to morph into the developing economies:

Rise of the Informal Economy

The formal sector shrinks and the informal and black market sectors increase in size.

It's important to stress that this shift occurs just with the end of economic growth —— as long as population continues to increase. Add actual contraction and it simply happens more quickly.

So despite what rgrulz says, we should be preparing our children for a very different world than we are now and this isn't rocket science. As I stress, this fundamental shift in our economy happens even if just growth stops. You don't need contraction for this shift to occur. No decent science teacher would say growth can continue forever so this shift is about as inevitable for us as the sun coming up in the morning.

Too many people and not enough jobs and suddenly half or more of a graduating class never gets work in the area they studied (already happening). With contraction that increases to nine out 10 students and pretty soon everyone starts to wonder why they heck colleges and universities even exist since the workforce is already saturated with highly specialized workers with no work.

Now, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell of getting that into the curriculum in any formal way, but aware parents can teach their own children what is happening to us and start them preparing.

I have, however, had absolutely no success with my sisters to have them consider this for my nieces and nephews so it truly will be only the aware parents teaching their own kids.

The rest of us are simply going to be boiling frogs.

Well, ok - we can produce a lot of graphs and charts - oil depletion curves, falling GDP, rises in this, drops in that, but how do we explain what it will be *like* and what to *do* ?

Like the recession but more so ? Catabolic collapse ? Fast crash ?

Most of us are undergoing an amorphous kind of preparation, but the truth is nobody really knows what the future will hold for them. In large part, we'll have to figure that out as we go along.

My point is, how do you teach that ? Should required reading be "When Technology Fails" ?

I think the curriculum required is so vast I don't know how it could be condensed into a school class. Most of it is philosophical in nature. I feel like I have spent so much time on it the last 5 years I should have earned a PhD in "Surviving the Long Emergency" - and yet I still feel like I don't know anything.

All fair questions. Here is how I would approach it.

Once contraction is demonstrated, then you move to how economies react in contraction: pensions fail (always and happening now), money gets scarce (teach how money enters the system) and that generally everyone drops two or three rungs on the wealth ladder.

Now you have set the stage for discussing the kinds of skills that are going to be required to bring back a kind of self-sufficiency that we haven't seen in generations. Tell them once again it will be a treat "to buy store-bought food."

That gets you pretty far and you haven't even mentioned the possibility (I would say high probability) that we will experience a collapse of some sort i.e. a rapid simplification of the systems our civilization relies on.

You still get to the same place as before, only faster. The students will naturally wonder about violence and all that and you can tell them that historically that has happened and will happen again. Will it happen everywhere? No, that element of the future will be lumpy, that is, not evenly distributed.

You can see why there is pretty much zero chance of this being taught in schools!

Edit: There are some good videos that I think a high-school student could understand. Certainly all college level kids could understand this one:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/global-debt-bubble-ca...

Then add on top what's happening to oil.

Nicole's video is probably very understandable, though I haven't watched it yet.

Most of us are undergoing an amorphous kind of preparation, but the truth is nobody really knows what the future will hold for them. In large part, we'll have to figure that out as we go along. My point is, how do you teach that ?

The highest level of critical thinking is arguably synthesis or creativity. How often as teachers do we get the opportunity to teach creativity? Not often. So it is a gift to be handed this topic, where we get to suggest that the lifetime that they imagined may not be, so how should they imagine the future? And how do we get there? Some of my students want to make movies this year for their group projects. I was very excited. Educational projects that synthesize the course content, that then evolve into a youtube summary of students' voices? What's not to love? That's how you get things to go viral. I've just got to get it past the lawyers.

Perfect. It sums it up for my wife and I.

Too many people and not enough jobs and suddenly half or more of a graduating class never gets work in the area they studied (already happening). With contraction that increases to nine out 10 students and pretty soon everyone starts to wonder why they heck colleges and universities even exist since the workforce is already saturated with highly specialized workers with no work.

The real problem that I see is what the colleges are "teaching". When you look at most of the "majors" that students are studying you find that very few have any science or engineering involved. It is the graduates in these touchie - feelie subjects that have the biggest problem in finding jobs other than flipping burgers.
Most of the touchie - feelie students really belong in vocational schools learning something useful for making a living. The problem is that many of the vocational schools are being turned into "technical colleges" that no longer teach vocational subjects.
Local high schools and vo-tec schools back in the 50's and 60's used to teach lots of night and weekend courses to adults, but this practice has disappeared.
Many vocational type courses now are nothing more that teaching said students to run xyz machine for abc employer. When the student looses that job they are shafted because they never received the all around vocational education that they should have (and in many cases thought they were paying for).

It doesn't matter what they teach. There are already too many people looking for any type of specialized work. I include any vocational skill that you might care to list.

We have a glut in everything from now on.

Education is a process. What we tell our children depends on what they can process and where they are on their own path of growth.

I think that at earlier stages it is perfectly OK to say that we must respect Mother Earth or that God rejoices when we treat Earth with respect, or that we have to treat environment and other species with care; does not matter where you come from philosophically/spiritually...It is a question of making children aware that we are all part of the environment.

A child who believes that gnomes take care of the forest is more likely to be able to receive "serious" environmental message. And a child who sees "environmentally" driven decision making of their parents will be more receptive to the message too.

There are few posts by teachers above, who point that messages from school message do not get internalized. That's because a lot of what we teach at school does not match child/teen's level of development.

Do you remember learning "times" tables?. They do not make sense and children take sometimes years to learn a few dozen verses - because at that age they do not have number sense (and they can't have it because they are too young). But they can have "environment sense" developed at any age and they will be more likely to treat PO (or global warming or whatever else) as their problem or societal problem when they are old enough.

And old enough is when they outgrow their ego-centric and peer-centric perception of the world, which happens some times in college.

We did not seem to have much trouble deciding to teach our children the scam science of AGW. In the past adults that jumped from behind trees and scared children were put in institutions or jail. Now they are awarded the Nobel Prize!

We should take a big chance and try to teach the nation's students something that is NOT PC for a change. Who knows, they might actually learn something about oil, energy conservation and economics in the process.

Who knows, they might actually learn something about oil, energy conservation and economics in the process.

Count me in. Teach them how to do science and what they need to know to make it work as a method of investigation and cut them loose. Spoon feeding a point of view or the peak oil "story" is a ridiculous excuse for education.

Spoon feeding a point of view or the peak oil "story" is a ridiculous excuse for education.

Note how "story" is in quotes.

Amazing how the poster can't be bothered to show what actually is the ridiculous excuse for education.

"Should the peak oil story be taught in schools?"

8 years ago, I started to campaign on peak oil at parent's meetings in the high school of my sons. The Principal at the time allowed it and gave me 5-10 minutes over several sessions for short presentations of the problem. At the end, when asked what to do, I proposed to introduce car-pooling and later car-free days with the objective to test systems how that would work (are there enough footpaths, pedestrian crossings, public transport etc), the fun was over. It was too much and I was advised to continue my campaign on a rather political level.

At another school, the chair woman of the parent's committee did not even allow me to speak because there would be electric cars to solve the problem.

Of course, peak oil should be taught in geography, environmental science and economics. In physics, it would be important to focus on thermodynamics which control the energy profit ratio of alternative fuels as summarized in my earlier post:

Diminishing Returns of Fossil Fuel Energy Invested
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=909

But until this is established in the respective curricula, the next phase of peak oil will already have taught us a lesson anyway, without a theoretical education at school.

Australia is failing to implement even the simplest solution, namely to use natural gas as alternative fuel:

Where will the natural gas come from for a transition to CNG/LNG as transport fuel?
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1902

5 years ago, I had a meeting on peak oil with the Dean of Science of a leading Uni in Sydney. He had also invited a lecturer from the school of petroleum engineering. He listened for half hour to our discussion and at the end asked the petroleum engineer when he thinks peak oil will be and his answer was: "in 5-20 years". The Dean thought that was close enough to take action and tried to motivate departments to take up this topic. He was unsuccessful, up to now.

A discussion of peak oil has many different facets that are applicable lessons for different ages. I believe practical lessons in simple conversation of anything and everything is worthwhile. Wastage is .... well wastage. As we sued to say in relation to the development of ISO standards, it it isn't contributing to the production of value (in some capacity) then that part of the process needs a rethink. Energy in our lives simply flows, changes shape, changes location, but always continues on. Teaching children at appropriate times some of these principles throughout their education would bring the expectations of our future societies more aligned with natural realities of energy flows.

It's not school, but a friend of mine in her mid-50s who has worked in public policy her entire life recently decided that her education had been lacking and asked me for a list of the ten science and/or engineering things that "every educated person should know." I've been working slowly on the list, and am trying to phrase it as "ten science/engineering questions every educated person should be able to answer." Peak oil is on the list, but I want to sneak up on it somewhat.

The current version of the question I have is "Why do we find useful amounts of oil in the places we do?" Once you can answer that, it seems fairly straightforward to bring in peak oil as a consequence: limited number of fields, oil in place versus what you can extract, find the easy stuff first, and the eventual limits on the ability to find and produce more of the stuff. I'm not sure if it's the right question or not. I'm trying to start from something that sounds fairly innocuous, and have the bad news be something that gets discovered, rather than starting from a "the sky is falling" point.

I'm a physics teacher in a high school near Torino, in Italy. Every year I explain problems tied with peak oil and all what is connected to the limits of growth in my classes, where are studying people from 17 to 19 year old. I can say that many of them understand most part of what I tell them, and some try to demonstrate to their relatives that they can do something to change their mind from growth to a almost stationary state. I can remember an old song saying these same things:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlJT8r-7oFo

And you (Can you hear and)
Of tender years (Do you care and)
Can't know the fears (Can you see we)
That your elders grew by (Must be free to)
And so please help (Teach your children)
Them with your youth (You believe and)
They seek the truth (Make a world that)
Before they can die (We can live in)

Teach your parents well
Their children’s hell
Will slowly go by
And feed them on your dreams
The one they pick's
The one you’ll know by.

Teachers need to make Peak Oil concrete, physical.
Kids need to learn how to quantify and convert, then their brains will quickly move on to understand Peak Oil. It's basic arithmetic.

Unfortunately, US education has teachers teaching the textbook(as approved by Texas Board of Ed) or some Washington based test.

How much energy is in a barrel of oil, ton of coal, cubic foot of gas?
How big is a barrel of oil, cu ft. of gas, ton of coal?
How many barrels of oil, cubic feet of gas, tons of coal does the world produce?
Where are oil, gas and coal produced?
How many barrels of oil, cu ft of gas, tons of coal have geologists discovered and when? How much can actually be expected to be used(recovery)?

A couple of classes and a couple of tests should be enough to convince the kids, but the miseducation of children IS the conservative agenda.

Children are also 'protected' from understanding the real world consequences of raging hormones.
Again, conservatives fear the kids may elect to use contraceptives or to get abortions angering an already Angry God, though I doubt God is anywheres nearly as angry as Pat Robertson or Limberger.

Maj - important questions for sure. But, IMHO, way too advanced for where society, in general, is right now. That’s where I think the smart proactive folks here on TOD would be very frustrated in such an effort. Just my own little anecdotal history but for what’s it’s worth: for years I was the chairman of the academic liaison committee of the Houston Geologic Society. Pretty impressive, eh? Actually I was just a one-man committee who did Show & Tell at the public schools in Houston. Early on I decided to do something more than impress them with shiny chunks of pyrite. I essentially showed them how much of everything around them came from some natural resource: glass from sand, nylon t-shirts from hydrocarbons, baby powder from rock talc (in the old days), sheet rock from gypsum. OTOH it was great to see them get so excited over such discoveries. But also depressing to learn what a large percentage of the teachers didn’t have a freaking clue what I was talking about. I even had to help one teacher spell “geologist” when she tried to write it on the board. I've found the rest of the non-oil patch population not any more aware of such matters.

The gov’t will respond more to the voice of the people (however irrational/non-productive as that might be) as we slide deeper in the really bad side of PO IMHO. We have a representative form of govt and the folks being represented don't even know TOD exists let alone its purpose. And the great majority of those people are a long way from understanding “mcf” let alone shale gas extraction. Educating the public as fast as possible is critical to any chance we have for a viable reaction to PO. But IMHO we don’t need college or even high school level competency. I did most of my S&T’s to 4th graders. That’s probably the level we should start working with the adults in our society. That may sound rather cynical. Maybe the average US citizen has a better handle on resources than the folks in Texas I deal with daily. OTOH you would think folks in Texas would have a better base knowledge of such matters. Sadly, IMHO. I don’t see it even here.

Read this the other day, referenced to Banned Books Week. "80% of U.S. families did not buy or read a book last year", "42% of college graduates never read another book after college", "In a 65-year life, the average person will have spent 9 years glued to the tube", etc...

Generally it seems that most people's interest in the world around them is really very limited.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22857.html
www.marketoracle.co.uk

OK, so here's a little story that might cheer you up. Every now and then I get the chance to teach a sunday school at one or the other liberal sort-of- churches around here, like the unitarians or liberal quakers. Always fun, since these tend to be really smart kids. So, I set up a resource depletion game.

I divided the kids into three generations, each with the charge to build the biggest sand pile they could, out of sand I had placed a lot of places in used cottage cheese containers, of which I have very many. I put this precious material in many places along a fence, at first many, and then fewer and fewer, and also farther and farther down the fence and farther away from it.

So the first generation of kids immediately made a fundamental and important geological discovery that most of the sand was in patches along the fence, and so they enthusiastically beavered along the fence and their pile of sand grew extremely rapidly. But quickly their time was up, and the next generation of kids started off with their own pile of sand, but had a lot harder time finding the little containers of it, farther and farther along the fence and way out in the weed patch. So at the end of their time, the second generation had a pretty puny pile of sand compared to the first one.

Then came the third generation, and they were mighty peeved, as well they should have been, because almost all the sand along the fence was gone, no matter how far they ran along it, and to boot, the sand in the weed patch just got too prickery to go for. So to hell with it, can't make a pile anywhere near the size of the others, , maybe we could make a pile of mud instead and just call it sand. Or maybe we could fake out a pile of sand with a foundation of mud and just a sprinkling of our miserable little bit of sand over the top of it, like frosting on a cake----.

So, the third generation went home to tell their parents that they felt they had been cheated, the earlier generations had been too greedy, there wasn't any sand left to find, and besides, the whole place was littered with flimsy, dirty empty cottage cheese containers.

I didn't say a word.

That's awesome!

That's amazing, thanks, Wimbi. What a creative teaching technique? So was the fence your vitual pipeline? I'm surprised that the second generation didn't get into squabbles about ownership of the piles, but I guess it was sunday school, after all?

The way you describe it, it sounds like they hit peak right away.

ROCKMAN,
I applaud your interest in the next generation of geologists (and your social interest in other human beings).

Geology is really borderline heresy, what with the talk of the Earth being older than 6000 years--some prelate added up the ages of every character in the Bible and added on 6 days.

I really pity teachers. They must teach the dumb down textbook which is designed to take the school year to get thru.

In ancient times, education was for developing character and broadening one's outlook.
In the 19th century most people couldn't read or write.
People worked 18 hours a day so society decided to prepare kids to move ahead.
Today the schools warehouse kids. Parents (as a distraction) live thru their children robbing them of their own lives.

Some children and young adults have the natural curiousity
to learn and absorb ideas like Peak Oil. They're also pretty open minded.

Adults are too beaten down and preoccupied to care.
They're also too invested in their own stuff, leading to denialism.
I've tried to talk about Peak Oil but it doesn't light a spark.

Saying that our educational system is controlled by conservatives is like saying that the NYT or Washington Post is controlled by Rush Limbaugh. You have to be to the left of Chavez and Castro.

WAPO is completely rightwing IMO, at least the editorials I've read and has been that way for +10 years after.

"Well, The Washington Post is not the liberal newspaper it was, Congressman, let me tell you. I have been reading it for years and it is a neocon newspaper".
March 26, 2007, Chris Matthews

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Post

They compete with the Moon-inspired Washington Times.
The 'librul media' is a RW fiction peddled by the over-the-top FOX network and the talk radio machine.

Anyone who believes Obama is a socialist after letting the bank pay off Bush's bailout/nationalization doesn't know what socialism is.
For example, Glenn Beck thinks Hitler(who never nationalized anything) was a socialist.

Funny that these dumber-than-dirt loons don't notice the worker in National Socialist German Worker's Party (NSDAP). Does this mean Hitler was a worker?

Maybe we could start by teaching kids that the earth goes around the sun, and not vice versa. According to National Science Foundation Surveys of Public Understanding of Science and Technology, in 2001 only 75% of U.S. adults knew that fact. In 2005, that percentage dropped to 71%.

I think a few commenters above have got the right idea. Understanding the cause of future world problems might be good for the upper grades or advanced students, but what about the younger students?

I'd teach them basic gardening skills. How to grow food when you can't get it at the store. How to get energy from the sun, both electric energy via PV or heat energy for cooking. How to build and use an electric generator. How to tell good drinking water from bad, and techniques for converting bad water to good water. How about, fishing, foraging, orienteering, woodworking, metal work, mechanical skills, bicycle repair, basic home repair, plumbing, etc.

These are skills kids are not being taught anymore, because we find little use for them in today's world, and yet we all know they will likely become useful again within another generation.

"I'd teach them basic gardening skills. How to grow food when you can't get it at the store. How to get energy from the sun, both electric energy via PV or heat energy for cooking. How to build and use an electric generator. How to tell good drinking water from bad, and techniques for converting bad water to good water. How about, fishing, foraging, orienteering, woodworking, metal work, mechanical skills, bicycle repair, basic home repair, plumbing, etc."

The younger generations know that these skills are passe. If you need something you just click on you mouse and it will be done for you. If not, you just inform the government of your plight and they will find a regulation that protects you from your ignorance.

Up post it has been suggested that the subject be taught in elementary school, high school, and college. I favor the High School and College approach and I favor teaching with care, because the boy who cried wolf is not just a story.

The problem is not as simple as identifying a course title and a level within the educational process. As a teacher and a parent, the problem is that the person who teaches the class has a great deal of influence over what message the students receive. Likewise, the text book and the school board have a say.

What values are taught is really what is at issue here. Each family has first dibs on teaching their children values. Then the schools come in and we all would like to have kids learn what facts exist in science and where critical thinking will lead once the kids have the faintest understanding of how to think. And yes, facts need a framework of philosophy in order to be compiled and recalled. In forth grade, the kids don’t think, they trust. This is a fact that schools need to consider. In high school the kids start thinking, but many are not there and thinking with adolescent brains is not the least bit critical, but high school students at least don’t trust everything they hear. I taught in high school because I felt the greatest challenge was to fine tune this idea of critical thinking and elementary school – where the greatest learning takes place—is not where the greatest thinking takes place.

So the issue is simple to me, teach the subject in the science classes that exist to teach the facts. Where there are disagreements in and among the true critical thinkers – teach that as well. Bring the controversy to the students and show them how to access original sources. Show them the internet and theoildrum.com. This would be doing them the most good. BTW, this works for evolution, age of the universe, global climate change, and peak oil. Finally, don’t try to make them see your point of view. Make them see that there are points of view and they need to develop one.

Back in 1977, just after the first oil crisis in the U.S., I was a transportation planner in a major city charged with updating the area's long range transportation plan. One day I got a visit from a high school teacher who was "obsessed" with peak oil. In his words, it was the first thing he thought about in the morning and the last thing at night.

We listened to his concerns and did build into our study a three level scenario of gasoline being (in today's prices) $2.75, $4.60, and $6.88 per gallon. Of course, the elasticities we had available didn't demonstrate the response we saw in 2008, but it was all we had with which to work back then.

I suspected his students just smiled and ignored him, perhaps recalling his warning 20 years later when gas was so cheap and imagining him being wrong. Perhaps one of them sees things differently now and values his teaching. I know I do.

Well, I've taught a seminar in peak oil to high school seniors for several years now. My first question is what they believe keeps the lights on in the room. The course begins by taking Albert Bartlett's lecture as a rough guide; that is, starting out with exponential growth and first applying it to human population. We then begin a new thread into the history of energy transformations and eventually concepts in human ecology with readings from William Catton and Richard Heinberg. Those ideas converge into an historical perspective on petroleum consumption and ends with the Oil Drum's analysis of the IEA 2008 Report. Students write independent research papers, which have included Hubbert linearizations, an introduction to biophysical economics, and attempts to collect realistic supply data for natural gas, uranium, coal, and other non-renewable resources. Other papers turn out to be crappy "reports" on alternative energies. A favorite exercise is "That Cubic Mile" where attempts are made to calculate and replace the annual energy of combustion of gasoline with electrical energy provided by some other means. Along the way we watch "The End of Suburbia," "The Crash Course," "Crude Impact" and so on.

Reaction is all over the place. My "biophysical economist" is a serious doomer and now a college freshman intent to study geophysics (His father is a geophysicist for a major oil company). In fact many of the parents are employed all over the oil and financial industry. We have had many guest lectures, including Heinberg who gave an evening lecture that was attended by many illuminaries in the community, in part because we are a leading private school in our city.

Some knowledgeable faculty take a keen interest, whereas another good proportion think I'm a bit of a nut case. Faculty with newborn generally avoid me altogether. Still, my course is both tolerated and advertised within the school community.

I would say that the course has been eye opening for many and largely disturbing. A few students are obviously influenced and may be one factor affecting certain life choices, and we do spend some time talking about careers. I would say that most seem to comprehend the problem, but in spite of great intellect, kids at that age are living in the moment, they are still mostly concerned about relationships, searching for self-identity, and getting into college (or the right college). Many just seem to be partying on until the party's over. Maybe I'm not that much different.

First show them this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY

Now, let us talk about teaching humility. I presume since they are getting to go to school instead of beginning hard manual labor at a pre-teen age, they know they are the elite of the human population, blessed with choices even their grandparents could have only dreamed of. They do know this don't they? If not, why not?

Now, have them look at the population, the population growth of India and China, the massive move forward in education and development in 2/5 (two fifths) of the world population, the number of educated competitors, consumers, artists, technicians, aspiring entertainers, aspiring hookers, aspiring architects, aspiring sports stars beginning to flood the market, ALL HUNGRY. Hungry for what? For EVERYTHING. Remind your students that these people are mostly young, competitive, educated, and risk takers, and do NOT take no for an answer easily.

Remind your young students that the citizens of Japan, Europe, and the U.S., are an elite aging minority setting like foam on the raging sea of the young sea of the most rapidly growing upwardly mobile population in the history of all known humanity, linked together into a web of information sharing undreamed of only 2 decades ago.

Everything I have said above is FACTS now, facts on the ground. Demographics is the most ruthless of the statistics, once set in motion they can be used to predict the future for the upcoming century.

Now for the controversial part: Should we remind our hopefully now humbled children that their influence in the world, the importance of their decisions regarding what they buy, what they drive, what they release in carbon, what they consume, is becoming almost miniscule in comparison to what the sea of upwardly mobile young from all over the world decides is important. Only by the sheer force of intellect and will and applied knowledge can they hope to avoid being washed over board, not in the storm of the century, but in the storm of the millennium. Have these students read the book of the age, "Future Shock" by Alvin Toffler, and pay attention to the chapters "The 800th Lifetime" and the ideas regarding the "Accelerative Engine". Remind them that the massive consumption, massive increase in information, and massive change Toffler discussed was already underway before the age of the home computer and the internet. Remind them that what Toffler predicted has since been dwarfed by reality.

Energy? It will be just one tiny aspect of the massive waves already striking at the very nature and survival of the former Western power elites, and in fact at the very survival of the modern culture as we know it.

Last lesson: Whatever change they can possibly envision will be WRONG. Whatever they think they know about anything...art, science, communication, technology, energy, social and community structure, is already becoming obsolete. They will deal with industries not yet born, organizational structures not yet known, and products not even yet on the drawing board. Think of the internet and computer times 10, and the fall of the Soviet Union (I know, the students will never have heard of it) times 5.

Now ask the students: Are you ready? Can anyone be ready? Oh, one more thing...if you can get this clas approved somewhere, I will teach it for barely more than minimum wage and a health plan...I know of and work with firms that consider themselves the cutting edge of technology but are actually so primitive it causes laughter and derision even amoung their under-educated youthful employees...these firms actually think they are ready and modern.

Roger Conner
RC

Roger;
I'm curious about the firms you mention that are self-described 'modern', but actually primitive.

Even without names, would you drop in a couple examples of the types of discrepancy that they are missing? (Even if you already alluded to it above, a detail or two of this would be very interesting to me)

Thanks,
Bob

Bob, sorry for the delay in reply, been at work...and our information systems are policed VERY tightly (just one symptom of what I was describing above...if you think the Chinese and Saudi's prctice information control, take a look at how it is practiced by corporate America)

Most of my experience is within the field of market and media research, and relationships from the financial community in connection to that type of work.

The banks and brokerages are to me among the worst...they are still selling investments as though we were in the 19th century, it is incredible. Attempting to consider the possibility of "black swan" events is beyond the scope of their ability, and informing their clients of such possibilities is not even considered...they feel their job is to "build confidence" in the markets, not undermine it, and they still think of "the market" as a monolithic entity ruled with wisdom by that great priesthood, the "financial community". If the events of the last two years have demonstrated anything, it should be that the ability of the financial power elites (Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, the big insurance and annuity peddlers, the hedge funds, etc.) to understand the world we are entering is a myth. They have absolutely no more knowledge than the man on the street, and due to their detachment, probably less. Their employees have zero methods of honest feedback...the party line is STRICT. Many of them are running their offices on 10 plus year old information technology, and trying to bootstrap information technology (wireless, cell phone, portable devices) on top of it...with the predictable result that integration and information transfer becomes almost impossible. If I told you how much work is done by pencil and paper even today...that most offices do not have, or if they do have they do not allow even mid level people access to wireless technology in the workplace...work schedules printed and hung on boards, memos printed and put in a book for employees to find and read, updates not read and wildly outdated....I could go on and on.

The market research field....I don't know, it is a very sad state of affairs. Much research (more than you would imagine) is done by landline phone interviews...some on the internet, but almost always by way of closed end questions ("When you hear the brand "IBM" are your impression positive or negative...please answer "yes" or "no") the nature of research is to please the client, not to gain real insight. The client doesn't complain because the research normally is twisted to indicate they are still on top of the world, they are simply looking for outside validation to show their customers and lenders. Real information about what is going on is non-existant.

The public is thus left in the blind. No one in the rich countries except the "eccentrics" consider the possibilities implied by the words "open source", "social networking", "cloud computing". Almost no one in the developed systems use or even no anything about open source, because they can afford to pay Microsoft.

The developing nations on the other hand do not have the luxury of waste. They need product that changes fast, can be modified fast, can be copied. They really do not concern themselves with "intellectual property" issues, and are developing programmers not in Microsoft Windows or "Sharepoint" systems already obsolete and obselete the day they hit the market (don't tell Microsoft shareholders, whatever you do, they are making money in the "new age", right? You do the math...
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=msft;r...

The firms of the developed world rely on market and media research, on the credit ratings agencies, on the reearch provided by financial firms and brokerage firms to do their jobs, to SURVIVE. Thus they are running blind.

I could go on and on, but in all honesty, I know so little. I have only seen how not to do it...how not to gain insight and usable marketable information for planning...I am still searching for the ways to do it right. The difference between the alert and the firms and industries mentioned above is that the alert know how little we know and how fast we have to try to gain information, and how much faster we MUST apply it, and how quickly we must be able (and willing, that's big) to communicate, to build networks, and then to do away with them, and then build again...ad hoc is the rule now, not the exception), how fast money must be moved, how carefully it must be watched....I know very little.

I didn't intend to go so long, but the short answer to your question...the financial "community" (which as we should now know can wipe us out without so much as firing a single shot), the market and media research industry (the ancient Greek myth of the "blind seer's" should apply here) are among the worst. They live in a bygone mythical era...and barely earned their keep even then...the eyes, ears and money of the western elites are blind, deaf, and poor, but what is scary is they do not even know it, and like a wounded bull running loose they can still do much damage.

RC

Thanks, Roger;

Interesting views one gets of the world around here.

Reminds me of hunting for a Share Apt in NYC around '92.. The mystical lifestyles that hide behind each apartment door, where someone could keep the world they preferred, or just the one they know and could handle, wrapped around them. I suppose I'm no different, but boy, what a trip!

Your details bring me to that favorite Gangster Movie line,

"You're in Organized Crime?"
"Well, to tell you the truth, we're not that organized.."

Thanks,
Bob

What a great comment, In my computer programming class I cited the statistic that college students find that the knowledge they learned in their first two years of college is obsolete by the time they graduate. It is the massive uncertainty of our times that requires the most broad education. And yes, you could not get the class approved although the material could be brought into a number of science and math classes.

KC

And here was lil'ol'me thinking PO was going to slow all this down some.

Great topic. This is more fundamental than teaching PO or when to teach PO to children. PO is a symptom but it is not the disease. The real issue is about changing our school curricula and dogmatic approach to education to adapt to the coming challenges of living after the oil is gone. We simply must start NOW to reprogram into our educators and children that college will not necessarily be the best long term objective of completing a primary K-12 education. We will need welders, plumbers, electricians and lots of mechanics in addition to civil engineers, food scientists and agricultural engineers. We need people who will be good building and assembling things - NOT more economists, lawyers and wall street bankers!

The only way to do this is to start now at the earliest age teaching children about how to survive in a post-oil world. Children born in 2010 will never get to drive a gas auto unless they have access to an antique and can pay $20 per gallon for fuel. They will need a firm grasp on agriculture, food production, mechanics and photovoltaic/electronics to name a few. If our education system does not reprogram itself immediately - it will be preparing more kids for college and there will be a complete failure to prepare high school graduates for the year 2030. There will be massive unemployment and a skill shortage the likes of which our world has never seen.

We have 20 years to rewrite the whole system.

Act now....it is already too late.

PO is [just] a symptom

+5

If our education system does not reprogram itself immediately - it will be preparing more kids for college [and MBA graduate school] and there will be a complete failure to prepare ... graduates for the [real] year 2030. There will be massive unemployment [and de-deployment (a.k.a. death)].

Agree with that too except for the closing: "and a skill shortage the likes of which our world has never seen".

The world has seen "The Dark Ages" at least once before and they were not pretty.
We are stepping back in that direction already.

Gail,
when my son and daughter in law expected their kid no 2 last year, I suggestet that - if a boy, call him Sue. That will make him tough: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1BJfDvSITY. It was a girl (they wanted it to be a surpise the second time around), and she seems to be tough enough already.

Seriously, I think the best way to prepare our kids is to make them love and respect nature, and to thrive in it. Also demonstrate the growing of vegetables and teach them (and their parents) practical skills and how to reduce waste. In short, ordinary boy/girl scout skills.

Bringing up the issue of Peak Oil is besides the point during childhood years, I think. It is the basic attitude to the challenges we as adults see coming that need to be in place.

I've been asking a similar question for a long time: Why are such interrelated topics so essential to the long term economic health of civilization as Peak Oil, continued exponential population growth, resource demand growth, and myriad other topics pertaining to human ecology and natural limits... Why are these subjects not being seriously considered in the context of higher education? At colleges and universities? So far as I am aware, serious discussion of challenges relating to our energy future have not even garnered exposure by way of unofficial events, such as hosting panel discussions or guest lecturers. Colleges and universities seem to be as much in denial or ignorance of these essential topics and their related challenges as the general populace. So far the only informed discussion I've witnessed regarding our energy future on the UT Campus, for example, has been among Engineering students outside of the classroom, during a picnic. Not that I would expect Business or Economics programs to begin examining the implications of continuous economic growth and population growth in the face of resource limits given a time constant longer than say, a few years... :-P Just some informal dialog and exposition of the topic would be encouraging, but I don't see any leadership in that regard... yet.

Elementary school kids? I don't know, but Jr. High and High School students should definitely be exposed to basic concepts such as ecology, natural limits, carrying capacity, qualitative vs. quantitative growth, and especially the fact that human economies are a subset of, and therefore entirely dependent on nature.

"There is enough hydrogen in the universe to power the universe!" ;-)

the fact that human economies are a subset of, and therefore entirely dependent on nature

Probably it is just a matter of semantics, but you perhaps intended to say that:

human well being is entirely dependent on nature

"Human economics" is fantasy world that we humans have constructed under a false and delusional belief that it is a dismal and yet sound "science".

___________________________________
UT, what does that stand for? U of Texas? Well that may explain everything.
Believe it or not, they do spake the heresy of PO at institutions of higher learning located outside the borders that whole "other" country, Tx.

I think that as soon as you are thinking of teaching particular content to a student, that implies that you have a vested interest in the result. I also think kids are smart enough to realize this, and react to it. People have been arguing about what should be the content for as long as there has been public education, and for just as long kids have known that education isn't really for them but for all these other somebodies who have these agendas, and they have tended to resist it. I say that if you trust your kids to know what they want to do, then supporting them in their efforts is all that is necessary. They will learn what they want and need to know to accomplish what they want to do.

I think that deciding that all the people taking those "squishy subjects" like English and art should be sent to the trade schools and so on is silly, saying they are "unemployable" in the coming times when they are going to be just as necessary. I think everyone is going to have to be a generalist to some degree, doing food production and then something else as well to make them valuable to the community. But that other valuable thing could be music, or writing the new stories that illustrate our new situations, and make the new myths that move us in the new directions that we need to be going in. I think if all we have are welders or electricians, or people who can integrate around a pacman contour, then life will be not worth living for those who are left.

People have had this idea that "knowledge" is this thing that is transmitted from the authorities to those who are deserving of it, and along with that transmitted knowledge is the idea that any knowledge outside of it is suspect and not to be tolerated. But what is true is that all the stuff in our heads is way different from the next guy's stuff, and we have to work very hard if we want to know that the next guy understands anything close to what we mean when we are talking to him. We have lots of shorthand tricks to facilitate our communications, but if we want to really communicate, then we have to go beyond those tricks, or at least be able to realize we really can't know what the other guy gets from what we say. So "knowledge" really doesn't stick around long enough to be "transmitted".

I think that, from having my own kids, the things that we "teach" to kids overtly are drowned out by the behaviors we present to them. You can post up all kinds of signs in the school halls that say "respect!", but if you don't listen to what children have to say then they know that you don't trust or respect them, and that it is all a lie. Lying to kids is about the worst thing you can do.

I think that "answering all their questions" is not really important to do. What they need to learn is that they can find answers to their own questions. You can show them ways that you have found helpful to you to answer your own questions. "I have found that for me, this a helpful way to look at these kinds of questions." you could say. Giving them your answers is not a good idea, and forcing them to use your ways of finding answers is not helpful to them. You may not know what their question really is, or why they are asking it, after all. Acting like you have no questions isn't helpful either.

So, parents making changes in their own lives because of peak oil, and then explaining why when they are questioned about it, is about the best education kids can get. As soon as it becomes "knowledge" packaged to be "transmitted" at school, kids will disregard it as being not relevant to them, and just like all that other stuff foisted off on them that doesn't address what is important to then personally.

Realistically, and I am thinking of world-wide education here, a first step, before any others, is teaching children (6 to 14 say) the TOOLS they need to develop, acquire world knowledge, sophistication, if I may call it that, as well as becoming manipulators and creators of knowledge, ideas, artifacts, ways of doing, etc.

Namely, reading and writing. This is really easy and cheap - provided basic conditions such as children actually attending school, having an incentive to learn (r and r must be seen as having some functionality), etc. are met. Added on, other types of representations, pictorial, graphic, iconic or abstract representations such as numbers, maps, graphs, currencies. In the OECD, many will learn basic r and r of natural language on their own / w parent / by osmosis/ thru the TV, it is that easy.

Mathematics. What to put in a basic maths educational curriculum will vary, but it is actually one of the topics that educators world-wide pretty much agree on. Visit a 3rd grade class in Argentina, Switzerland, Nepal, and Japan, and the content will not be too different. Teaching methods, class management, cultural ambiance, etc. will vary greatly, and there are hot debates about these. Personally, I would include logic (propositional logic at least, if not more) under the ‘maths’ rubric, as the entire field should be labelled logico-mathematics. Children, or teens or adults for that matter, will not learn math on their own or at home (barring exceptional circumstances) and it is the one core topic that Gvmts. / communities must address, using expert knowledge for cultural transmission, which implies some societal planning, e.g. teacher training, schools with a schedule, etc.

This topic is of course related to the ‘representational’ topic as numeracy (a code word for some math understanding), is mediated, always, through symbols that represent concepts (think of zero and place value as a numeral, it is not a cardinal/ordinal number but something else), math is purely abstract and constructed through the relationships between symbols. Which does not mean that human beings have no ‘innate’ - inherent, wired-in - apprehension of length, time, weights, relations between quantities/numerosties, however defined, but simply that they must, to discuss or manipulate these, work out general laws, acquire a conventional language. Nor does it mean that ‘maths’ is disembodied and unrelated to the real world, a sort of useless academic exercise. Of course, all this is based on a pov which stipulates that ‘math’ (and logic) is universal and has a quality of ‘truth’ in the system in which it defines itself.

Science. What is basic science rapidly slips into cultural, economic, territory... So its harder.

What parts of it should be understood at what age? Science curricula are dominated by a pov that spells basics first - but what are that basics of Biology for ex? Botany, in the sense of identifying and classifying nearby plants, understanding photosynthesis (chemistry) or the functioning of the cell or population growth since 1950, or electricity ;) ? Science teaching is also subject to functional criteria - we slip away from TOOLS to the functionality of knowledge, the economy, available jobs, brain drains, educational policy, etc. Some say an agreement is essential, others claim that diversity is a source of creativity, innovation, etc.

In the US, some districts balk at teaching Evolution, don’t, or only teach it as a possible theory, whatever. In Cuba, it is taught that the US moon landings are a hoax, and the technology is reviewed and dismissed (I have read.) The Philippines deliberately trains workers for export in the health / help for humans field. US corporations often prefer outsourced or imported labor for low level ‘scientific jobs’ and have tailored their policies to that, in function mostly of economic criteria and the tax structure. Switzerland imports nurses and doctors, and so on. Mostly, what is going on is that an elite or lower educated worker class is trained in function of certain ‘opportunities’ and basic science is woefully neglected in the ‘lower grades’ or for the population in general. (There is a reason for that.) Science, pure but mostly applied, if I may shoddily use this fuzzy distinction, is a money-maker, and the common good tends to be eclipsed by economic policies, fame and fortune for the few, national kudos, and so on.

In this landscape, teaching or informing about peak oil, or more generally, fixed or limited stocks and their inevitable depletion over time, becomes a political and ideological, nationalistic issue. Outside of the scope of TOOLS, which should be the no. 1 priority.

All the rest. Includes history, geography, etc.

Gail's choice of titles caught my attention, I have been lurking on the Deep Water Thread where things are calming down a bit and was curious what else was on TOD. Obviously, by it's name Oil and Hence Peak Oil is of huge interest to this community. But for me the answer to the question is teaching about Global Warming and the current and eventual consequences. The contribution to CO2 emissions from Transportation (oil) is substantially less (32B pounds CO2/yr) than the other 3 sectors; industrial, commercial & residential; where Electricity is the major contributor. (DOE annual energy report) Aspects of GW can and should be taught at all levels as a root course, but the impending impacts of GW, which the majority choose either to deny or ignore, are mind boggling. If I lived in New Orleans I think I would have a panic attack each and every night on the subject. Here in the North, where I live, a main line newspaper did a valid survey of the number of people who believed in GW. The results an astounding 59% of the people surveyed thought GW was bogus. I have been working in the GW area now for a bit over half a decade and what I've learned, most importantly about the impending results, and I've only scratched the surface, leaves me incredulous. And by the way in my view we will need petrol to fuel transportation into the far distant future, but we need to conserve it's use. Moving personal transportation from Oil to other forms of energy helps the oil picture but does not greatly impact the CO2 picture. Moving goods transportation from trucks to trains reduces the consumption of oil by a rough factor of 4. Ships and Planes not much alternative

Probably the most severe end result is going to be rising ocean levels, now rising at pretty low levels, ~3mm/yr over the last 80 but increasing annually. For those that believe in GW there is a pervasive understanding that if we simply cut emissions to the natural take-up levels that all will be better and the Earth will be saved. This view is far from the actual. Susan Solomon et al, from NOAA/NASA, published a paper in Nov. 2008 titled "Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions." The authors make the case that even if emissions were stopped entirely that after a thousand years the levels would still be elevated i.e. there would only be slight diminishment, ~20% over a thousand years, and consequently world temps would stay elevated.

Today world Ice and Snow packs are melting at ever increasing rates. The maintenance of the higher temps guarantees that the melt will continue and ICE Amplification (Currently referred to as Arctic Amplification) will continue to increase increasing the melt rate even if the temp rise is stopped and just holds close to steady. The Arctic Melt, this year came within about 2.5% of breaking the 2007 melt extent record of ~40%. This year for the first time in 150k years both the NE and NW passages were open for shipping and a few companies were using the passages. Projections for total melt range from 2013 (a bit too aggressive for me)to 2050 (far to conservative for me. Projecting the mean min. extent line (NSIDC Arctic info site, NASA supported)would point to ~2030. but the last 6 years min. extent have all been on or below the average and that trajectory would tend to point to ~2020 or earlier. After the Arctic (about 1.5 feet ocean rise, ice in the pond), comes Greenland (~21 feet rise, ice on a rock) and later but continuously is Antarctica (~240 feet rise, ice both in the pond and on a rock). Yes, the current projections, all based on a linear and non-accelerated model, point to rises a long way off, so why worry! Right? Solomon et al, calls the melt irrevocable, and inevitable. Consider this if ONLY the Arctic and 20% of Greenland melt the rise is over 6 feet. Something like 60 Million US citizens live in the 0 to 6 foot land zone. Big bucks to move them. Since I live above the maximum high water mark, I can choose not to have a house on giant stilts. If all three major Ocean located Ice masses the Ocean would only come up the Mississippi as far as New Madrid, Missouri. See No worry! For me!

But to reverse this course seems to require reversing atmospheric content levels or the ppm levels. In other words sucking CO2 (and most likely methane) out of the atmosphere to the levels of ~1800 so that World Temps retreat to levels of the same time. That will solve part of the problem but it is a gigantic problem, and lifetime employment for lots of folk. But unfortunately, it will only slow the ice melt not stop the melt. Remember Ice or Arctic Amplification? Conversion of Ice fields to open water or land causes more and more of the Sun's energy to be collected, hence the word "acceleration", and it is fairly independent of temperature. And don't forget all of the land based Snow and Ice fields are also undergoing an accelerating melt. We get to see this reenactment up north every spring, on a local, back yard, basis. I assert it is going to take the development of some incredible techniques to selectively lower some regional (the Arctic has the same area as the 48 states) temps such that the ice refreezes and regrows, and the balance is restored. And no, higher levees, and sea walls and sea gates etc is not going to solve the problem.

So I would submit that GW and educating the kids at a rapid rate on the incredible far reaching consequences of GW is a very very high priority. We really don't have a lot of time before we are going to see the shore line consequences, and it is essential to teach this field to the oncoming younger generation.

A long Rant over. Duck

Get with the times there Ducky. Since the weather has not been very cooperative as of late, the real problem is now "Climate Change" and not global warming. Let's face it, GW is a hard sell to the Southern Hemisphere after the record breaking winter that they had. Too hot or too cold it is all the fault of excess CO2. Every one knows that there were never any warming periods in the past and that the glaciers covering the US would still be here if man had not hunted the woolly mammoth to extinction.

When major governmental bodies pollute science in order to take my freedoms away I get a little POed. The role that CO2 plays in climate change is far from proven! If fact sacrificing virgins has a better chance of controlling the weather than limiting CO2 emissions.

Well, Pe_Type_Guy, I'm always delighted when one of the hard core deniers steps forward. I think the real old hat is the people who don't go and actually read the science don't actually don't know the facts, they are just guessing. As far as GW versus CC, I'm hooked into GW because the Ice is far above simple climate change.

Does the PE in your moniker identify you as a real Professional Engineer, because Most PE's that I know are on the side of the warming not the denying. Take a page from Deepwater Engineer's manual, he really studies up on the facts before making an assertion as fact, otherwise he clearly identifies the fact that it is his unsupported opinion.

If you would like to start your studies then the first link is to the US Global Climate change report:
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/...

The second recent very easy to read paper, (that's important isn't it?) is the latest UK The Royal Society in fact:

royalsociety.org/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=4294972963

From each site you will have to download the actual report.

Finally, should you like to extend yourself in to the real problem for us try this one

http://www.pnas.org/content/106/6/1704.full.pdf+html

This will download the actual report.

Have fun, good reading and buy a good boat & if you are in the first 6 feet lots of sandbags and sand.
And actually you say "all the fault of CO2. Kind of like saying it was all the fault of the sun that I got sunburned. In fact while CO2 is the base driver, methane is starting to run a close second. But the other mechanism is Water Vapor, which has increased dramatically as the temperature has risen. Go figure, warmer temp in your house easier it is to have high humidity.

I'm not going to spend a lot of ergs trying to convince you to change, because from years of experience on this subject I know that it will take far more time than I have and far more blog space than Gail wants to use.

Well, good reading, have fun, buy a good boat, and if you are in the 0 to 6 foot rise band invest in lots of sand bags, sand and plenty of shovels for the neighborhood kids to use filling those bags.

duck

Gee Ducky the only references that that you forgot to list were those from the very well respected (among progressives) IPCC.

No Pe, I didn't list the IPCC report on Climate change because a) it's pretty long and deep b) because I was sure you would bring up Climate Gate, and tell us what a piece of trash it was. In fact you'll find that a)Dr. Solomon is 1) a contributor to the IPCC document and 2)was on the audit Committee that audited the last issue of the IPCC report after the ruckus was raised. So She and her 3 partners in the Irreversible paper (peer reviewed) are from really offbeat organizations from around the world
a) Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
b) Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics
c) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Switzerland
d) Institut Pierre Simon
Laplace/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Unite´ Mixte de Recherche 1572 Commissariat a` l’Energie Atomique–Centre National de la
Recherche Scientifique–Universite´ Versailles Saint-Quentin, Commissariat a l’Energie Atomique-Saclay, l’Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France

Really crummy little organizations don't you agree Pe? And certainly with no scientific standing! Right?

The point being that the IPCC report is not a basic report but a compilation of many other reports. In the past some of those reports were not peer reviewed but in the future all source material will be from peer reviewed reports. And by the way reading even the executive summary can be very educational. You might want to invest the time if you are really into the subject as apposed to simply into denial. I've gotten a lot of material from that report for my work.

The simple point of Dr. Solomon's et al, report is that it wholly changes the game, and very very few people understood that point of 'folks, this GW/CC thing is not going away easily!!!!!!' So yes we should be teaching it as a core subject in our schools starting in about 5th grade. It is going to change our lives and our livelyhoods.

Oh and Pe, you should go to the NSIDC site and look at the Ice reports. I wonder how fishing will be on French street in NO?
Wouldn't it be better to be a positive contributor rather than a spearchucker? That way you are a value add to the thread. Yes?
duck

Oh, Pe, I was thinking that somehow you were trying to demean my character by the use of the word "Progressive". I was thinking that it must have some terrible meaning.

But as a Noun, the first Webster definition is:
Moving forward; advancing.

And as an adjective, the first Webster definition is:
A person who actively favors or strives for progress toward better conditions, as in society or government.

So I would have to say that those definition fit me to a TEE!!!

duck

I think the PE in his name may stand for Petroleum Engineer.
It's a kind of high-salary votech degree, AFAIK.
(running ducking hiding)

Gee, I thought PE stood for Phys Ed? If you are running it might not be fast enough.....

I have taught my children about Peak Oil.

They fully understand the situation, and are now in their 20s.

The effect of their awareness?

Nil at this stage.

I suppose however that if/when PO turns out to be a reality then they won't go into shock.

I suspect that they know that they will have to abandon the cities and return to the security of a rural community ... or perhaps not.

I think we should be teaching our children how to be healthier and live stress free lives. That will lead to better decisions, especially concerning energy expenditures and ventures. A working solution for energy sources would be a good stress reducer for everyone.

In my school district the Superintendent is eagerly pursuing a conversion to the "21st Century School" model which has gained popularity in Texas. Basically, the hope is that transforming high schools to mimic the corporate world will draw MNC's to our community searching for more competitive human resources. The superintendent spends every summer going to corporate sponsored junkets that insist to local administrators the future of education lies in an unending global economic expansion. As a believer of PO (whether in the short or long term) this whole vision of education as being a viable future for education makes me want to pull my hair out.